Douglas in 1856

I admit my knowledge of the 1856 Democratic nomination is sketchy at best. But as I recall, Douglas came quiet close to recieving the nomination. So let's say, for whatever number of reasons, it is Douglas and not Buchanan who is the Democratic nominee. I presume Douglas would defeat Fremont, but I may be wrong.

So, presuming I'm right about election results, in 1857 Stephen Douglas is sworn in as the 15th President of the United States. What changes?
 
Douglas hadn't fallen out with the southern branch of his party, but he wasn't the "doughface" that Buchanan was. Unlike Buchanan, he probably won't secretly encourage the Supreme Court to use the Dred Scott case to rule on slavery in general or influence northern members of the court to vote with the southern majority.

I see two likely options. The Court rules as it did, but it is more obviously an attempt by the south to dictate to the rest of the country. The clear spilt in the Democratic party probably leads to bigger divisions between the northern and southern parts of the party. OTOH, with the Democratic party less obviously in the hands of "Slave Power" there will be less northern Democrats switching to the Republican party.

If Lincoln does debate someone in 1858, it won't be Douglas. This could help Lincoln if the other speaker is not as good a Douglas, but the state legislature will still pick the Democrat along party lines.

OTOH, the Supreme Court could just uphold the Missouri state court without further comment. This possibly avoids the Panic of 1857, keeps the Kansas-Nebraska act intact and might even settle things enough to avoid the Civil War.

If the Democrats don't split in 1860, then Douglas probably get re-elected. If they do split, the Republican candidate, likely Seward, wins the election. The second will probably lead to a secession attempt, the first could still do so.

I'd expect Douglas, a strong Unionist, to make much more decisive actions than Buchanan trying to prevent secession.
 
Does this also mean that Lincoln is likely to be elected to the US Senate in 1858?

Assume that John Brown does his thing does the rest of the sessessionist thing happen?
 
At that time Senators were selected by the state legislaters. As in OTL, the Illinois legislature would probably be slightly Democrat, so Lincoln probably wouldn't get the position.

Brown's raid on Harper's Ferry might be butterflied away, since Douglas was strongly opposed to the LeCompton Constitution. The key thing is if the Douglas can keep the Democratic Party from splintering. If so, then the south might not attempt to secede if the Republican candidate wins in 1860.

Even in TTL, there'll probably be a secession attempt. Its just the strongly pro-Union Douglas will probably do a better job than Buchanan (it would be hard not to) of placating the border states and standing up to the deep south.
 
I did realize that Senators were elected by state legislators. However the impression one gets of the Lincoln Douglas debtates is that the legislature eleection was treated as virtually an election for Senator. With a weaker Democrat I still wonder.
 
Douglas being elected might be a good thing

OTL
In 1856 - there are 16 free states and 15
By 1860 - Oregon and Minnesota are admitted to the Union as free making it 18 free and 16 slave. All free states went to Lincoln. Part of the South's reaction was not just because Lincoln was elected but because of parity slipping away.

With Douglas as president in 1856
1857 - Kansas becomes a slave state - 16 and 16 (reaction - abolition settlers move North to Nebraska) - as a compromise Transcontinental started in Iowa through Nebraska territory
1858 - Minnesota becomes free state - 17 to 16
1859 - instead of Oregon, Democrats push for and get Oklahoma as a state - 17 to 17

1860 - Douglas is relected

1861 - Oregon becomes state 18 to 17
1863 - Nebraska becomes state due to increased free staters who want another free state and because of railroad activity. 19 to 17

1864 - Republican elected - seven states secede. War is on. Only the seven secede with higher union sentiment in seceding states. Montgomery is capital. War is over 1866.

Recon
 
Would Douglas be able to force to the Northern States to uphold the Fugitive Slave Act? Those states are just ignoring Federal Law by not enforcing it, which is usually called nullification.
 
With Douglas as president in 1856
1857 - Kansas becomes a slave state - 16 and 16 (reaction - abolition settlers move North to Nebraska) - as a compromise Transcontinental started in Iowa through Nebraska territory

Since Douglas strongly opposed the proslavery LeCompton Constitution in OTL, I see no reason he would cave in on the issue if he were President.
 
Top