Douglas Hurd as Conservative leader

[Sideways]

It seems to me that Hurd's biggest weakness in the 1990 leadership election was that he didn't canvass early enough, and Major had Thatcher's support.

How possible would it have been for him to win a Conservative leadership competition? It strikes me that if Thatcher won the first round of the leadership challenge in 1990, but lost a general election in 1992, it would discredit the right of the party and give Hurd time to prepare. He might pick up more support from cabinet ministers, and might pick up support from people who were sick of modernising upwardly mobile types like Thatcher and Major.

Would he be a good leader for the party? I imagine he'd seek a deal on Maastricht, rather than trying to oppose it like Labour did to Major. Maybe he could get them to drop elements of the social chapter. I don't imagine he'd play well with the voters in the long wait for the next election, though.

Any thoughts?

 

[Fletch]

He made John Major look like Bill Clinton in terms of charisma. That being said, Major managed to secure a Tory win in 1992. As for the Tory Party, nothing after '92 was going to stop the civil war short of a huge majority and that was not going to happen.

He did do a great interview with Daisy Donovan. Here is part of the transcript....

DAISY – Lord Hurd, what was it like being blown by an Irishman?
HURD – It was odd, very odd.
DAISY – Are you worried about being blown again?
HURD – No, not at all.

 

[Well]

It seems to me that Hurd's biggest weakness in the 1990 leadership election was that he didn't canvass early enough, and Major had Thatcher's support.

How possible would it have been for him to win a Conservative leadership competition? It strikes me that if Thatcher won the first round of the leadership challenge in 1990, but lost a general election in 1992, it would discredit the right of the party and give Hurd time to prepare. He might pick up more support from cabinet ministers, and might pick up support from people who were sick of modernising upwardly mobile types like Thatcher and Major.

Would he be a good leader for the party? I imagine he'd seek a deal on Maastricht, rather than trying to oppose it like Labour did to Major. Maybe he could get them to drop elements of the social chapter. I don't imagine he'd play well with the voters in the long wait for the next election, though.

Any thoughts?

The issue is that Hurd is an Old Etonian: if you think that was a millstone around Cameron's neck, just wait to see what it would have done to Douglas Hurd. The Conservative Party in the '80s and '90s was all meritocratic and business-y; Hurd was of entirely the wrong calibre to make that work.

Setting that aside for the moment though, I think Hurd needs to be in government to win a '90s leadership contest. In OTL he retired in 1995 having shown very little interest in the leadership election of that year. I don't think he was interested in leading the party for four years in Opposition and then back into government. He could be PM in the late 80s/early 90s as an end to his career, but to make him Leader of the Opposition I think you have to have the Tories lose in 1987 (and then he'd be a bit of a dark horse).

So can he win in 1990? Naturally, his best bet is as a unity 'stop Heseltine' candidate, but in OTL the Cabinet split between him and Major for that accolade. Let's say Major's affair becomes public just before the 1989 reshuffle; he resigns in embarrassment and Geoffrey Howe stays as Foreign Secretary. A couple of months later, Lawson resigns as OTL, and Hurd becomes Chancellor. Something like the 'no no no' speech happens, and Howe resigns, setting into motion a leadership election similar to that of OTL. In those circumstances, I could see the Cabinet rallying behind Hurd, if not as the only candidate (perhaps Tom King?) then on the run-off agaisnt Heseltine.

 

[Sideways]

FletcherofSaltoun: That is beautiful, thankyou

Well - I think Kenneth Clarke was probably right about the Eton thing - had he owned up to it and moved on, the Conservative Party would have forgiven it. His attempt to make it sound like his family were disadvantaged made him look bad.

 

[V-J]

It's very, very difficult to see how Hurd could become leader in anything resembling OTL. In 1990 OTL he was a man out of his time; an old-Etonian old Heathite in a Thatcherite party. Get rid of John Major before 1990 and John MacGregor or the like steps up to take his place, not Hurd.

 

[AdmiralBlake]

have john major's rise become not as rapid, hurd would be the natural stop-hezza candidate, unless tebbit runs, which he might do

 

[V-J]

have john major's rise become not as rapid, hurd would be the natural stop-hezza candidate, unless tebbit runs, which he might do

Hurd would not, repeat, not be the natural stop Heseltine candidate. Major had positioned himself on the right of the party but also could appeal cross-party to the centre and some on the left; Major also had generational appeal in the party. Hurd would never be able to come close to doing that. (Indeed couldn't in OTL, coming a very poor third) If Major isn't there then someone else from the party mainstream would take his place, though not necessarily with the same result.

 

[Cymraeg]

Hurd vs Tarzan = King Tarzan. Heseltine would have blown Hurd away. Which might have been a shame, as Hurd is apparently a very able man, albeit one who is devoid of charisma.