Double Japan's Population

The Poarter

Banned
What if Japan ended up having double the population it has now with the same per capita wealth? How would this effect global politics?
 
Or it could retain Taiwan and the Korean peninsula which would, without any change to the population, bump it's population from 127 million to 224 million. North Korea would probably have twice the population it does right now with actual governance and prosperity. Factor in a healthy demographic trend and no lost decade, you could have a Greater Japan with ~250 million people and a gdp per capita 50% higher than the USA (this is the proportion they had in 1995 before the Lost Decade and Asian Financial Crisis at $28k for the US and $42k for Japan). In modern terms that's a staggering $19.5 trillion gdp with a per capita value at $78k. Japan would dominate the world economy.
 

The Poarter

Banned
I actually meant the Japan of post world war 2 increasing its population from 71 million to 254 million by 2015.
 
I actually meant the Japan of post world war 2 increasing its population from 71 million to 254 million by 2015.
Do you mean with a post-VJ Day PoD? Because that would require a rather high birth rate, in a country which is unlikely to accept significant levels of immigration.
 

Deleted member 97083

They'd have to still be the Japanese Empire so they would ruthlessly exploit everyone around them, support an early 20th century cultural mentality, and enact natalist policies.

Otherwise with ordinary post-WW2 Japan it wouldn't happen, the demographic transition would slow Japan's growth at around the same time and liberalizing attitudes would lower the fertility rate.
 
I actually meant the Japan of post world war 2 increasing its population from 71 million to 254 million by 2015.
That more than trippling it. To get the GDP to stay the same... Well, hard. To cook the books for that. Unless they become the only ones in East Asia to deal with finance and industry I don't see it happening. And we should keep in mind that even today they are not exactly the model of efficieny. People are expected to work long hours, go to social events with coworkers and puke their guts out, use floppy disks.... Quite a few cases of women divorcing their husbands as soon as they retire, because they had basically never seen them for several decades. Is this population all Japanese or do they have a lot of immigrants or foreign workers? Land and food prices are already terribly high, but perhaps moving into rural areas and spreading out their cities can alleviate that to a bit, and without high tarriffs on food they simply buy food cheap from other countries. These sorts of things would threaten the powers-that-be though, and I see foreigners being kept out with the excuse that the islands are too crowded, they are communist sympathizes, etc.
 

The Poarter

Banned
That more than trippling it. To get the GDP to stay the same... Well, hard. To cook the books for that. Unless they become the only ones in East Asia to deal with finance and industry I don't see it happening. And we should keep in mind that even today they are not exactly the model of efficieny. People are expected to work long hours, go to social events with coworkers and puke their guts out, use floppy disks.... Quite a few cases of women divorcing their husbands as soon as they retire, because they had basically never seen them for several decades. Is this population all Japanese or do they have a lot of immigrants or foreign workers? Land and food prices are already terribly high, but perhaps moving into rural areas and spreading out their cities can alleviate that to a bit, and without high tarriffs on food they simply buy food cheap from other countries. These sorts of things would threaten the powers-that-be though, and I see foreigners being kept out with the excuse that the islands are too crowded, they are communist sympathizes, etc.

You misunderstand. I wish to know what the world would be like had Japan had such a population not how it got to such.
 
You misunderstand. I wish to know what the world would be like had Japan had such a population not how it got to such.

Well for one thing to reach that number you have to continued population growth to modern, that more or less remove the Lost Decade, but that doesn't translate to a much higher GDP per capita, as the growth are eaten up by population growth.

As for how the world would look, I imagine we would pretty much see Japan become a much more active world player, especially in opposition toward a rising China, they're likely attempting to create some kind of military and economic coalition against China. This high growth will likely also result in a much large Japanese diaspora. Japan at home will also be much more conservative, as this population growth have to build on early marriages and housewives not entering the labour market.
 

The Poarter

Banned
Best I could come up with on short notice.

upload_2017-4-30_20-8-28.png


Here's the stats for population by age:


MEN WOMEN
85+ 575,000.00 1,265,000.00
80 - 84 1,035,000.00 1,955,000.00
75 - 79 1,741,811.50 2,932,310.62
70 - 74 2,735,602.58 4,223,941.90
65 - 69 4,027,868.35 5,821,848.48
60 - 64 5,598,395.82 7,683,096.32
55 - 59 7,399,576.35 9,737,813.84
50 - 54 9,365,544.00 11,901,359.22
45 - 49 11,422,842.99 14,086,830.00
40 - 44 13,499,930.47 16,215,146.84
35 - 39 15,534,021.20 18,221,480.25
30 - 34 17,474,917.11 20,058,055.87
25 - 29 19,286,219.88 21,694,104.34
20 - 24 20,944,660.99 23,113,959.55
15 - 19 22,438,315.31 24,314,226.82
10 - 14 23,764,329.58 25,300,714.27
5 - 9 24,926,607.50 26,085,569.32
0 - 4 25,933,715.41 26,684,849.61

Also the total population: 261,295,307.25

Everything else remains the same ethnicity wise.

EDIT: Made a better chart right here:

upload_2017-4-30_21-12-39.png


Along with it's own data:


MEN WOMEN
85+ 2,867,691.00 4,638,151.00
80 - 84 2,230,097.00 3,051,558.00
75 - 79 3,140,433.00 4,051,451.00
70 - 74 4,110,272.00 5,060,659.00
65 - 69 5,077,460.00 6,021,741.00
60 - 64 5,992,845.00 6,895,014.00
55 - 59 6,824,024.00 7,658,650.00
50 - 54 7,554,302.00 8,305,424.00
45 - 49 8,179,296.00 8,838,380.00
40 - 44 8,703,005.00 9,266,798.00
35 - 39 9,134,356.00 9,603,040.00
30 - 34 9,484,589.00 9,860,371.00
25 - 29 9,765,488.00 10,051,609.00
20 - 24 9,988,312.00 10,188,396.00
15 - 19 10,163,228.00 10,280,884.00
10 - 14 10,299,080.00 10,337,678.00
5 - 9 10,403,362.00 10,365,925.00
0 - 4 10,482,306.00 10,371,472.00

Total Population: 279,247,347.00

Any thoughts?
 
Last edited:

gaijin

Banned
Best I could come up with on short notice.
Any thoughts?

My thought is that you do not really understand how demographics work.

Let me give you a hint, things like birthrate etc. are a result of the societal situation. Unless you totally alter japanese society in a way that would make it almost unrecognizable this will not happen.

Point
Period
end of sentence.
 

The Poarter

Banned
My thought is that you do not really understand how demographics work.

Let me give you a hint, things like birthrate etc. are a result of the societal situation. Unless you totally alter japanese society in a way that would make it almost unrecognizable this will not happen.

Point
Period
end of sentence.


Have even read what I wrote?
 
No Korean War. No reindustrialisation in steel. Textiles lead reindustrialisation.

Low wages > high birth rate.
 
Top