In 1520's King Sigismund I of Poland and King Francis I of France negotiated an alliance against Habsburgs. Terms stated that there would be a double marriage between Houses of Jagiellon and Valois (Isabella of Poland marries Henry, Duke of Orlęans while Sigismund II Augustus marries Margaret of France). Soon the alliance fell a part. My question is what if the alliance continued or was reestablished in 1530's and double marriage occured ? How would that change French Wars of Religion and the formation of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth?
Double Franco-Polish marriage
- Thread starter filipdomanski
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@Jan Olbracht can correct me but didn't Sigismund II only catch whatever VD he had in the 1540s? So the whole PLC can be butterflied away IMO. Getting @Zygmunt Stary to agree to the match - as he really wanted one of his brother's granddaughters for a daughter-in-law - might be a bit harder
After 1525 that plans made not much sense anymore, because:
-Pavia
-Teutonic Order in Prussia (main source of conflict between Poland and the Emperor, who was Order's protector) was secularised.
-Elizabeth of Austria was born in 1526 and from the very moment of her birth she was planned to marry her cousin Sigismund Augustus.
-Pavia
-Teutonic Order in Prussia (main source of conflict between Poland and the Emperor, who was Order's protector) was secularised.
-Elizabeth of Austria was born in 1526 and from the very moment of her birth she was planned to marry her cousin Sigismund Augustus.
what if Elisabeth were to die youngish, not quite infancy, but while her next sister, Anna is already promised elsewhere (and the emperor can't break the match without looking like an idiot). Next daughter was Maria (b.1531), and that age gap is rather big.
As for the Isabella-Henri d'Orléans, IIRC, François was considering having Paul III annul the marriage between Henri and Caterina de Medici (sometime after the dauphin died) due to their childlessness so that he could marry Henri to Kristina of Denmark. Have François annul the marriage, Kristina refuses, Henri marries Isabella instead; then a bit later, Elisabeth of Austria dies and Isabella suggests to her mother/father-in-law that her unwed sister-in-law is looking for a husband (Bona was looking at Anna d'Este when Elisabeth died OTL, not sure why she didn't go after the still unwed Marguerite)
Sigismund Augustus was priority due to situation in Hungary and troubles with Zapolya, so Ferdinand may risk damage of his reputation.
what about the other scenario - Isabella to Henri II, then when Elisabeth dies, Isabella suggests Marguerite de Valois?
That would likely require the death of the Dauphin Francis BEFORE his brother‘s wedding
see my point about François wanting the marriage between Henri II-Caterina de Medici annulled between 1537-1540 OTL
To complement @Kellan Sullivan's question, what if the French won at Pavia at stayed in control of Milan at the very least? Would that improve the chances of a Franco-Polish marriage alliance happening?
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Pretty unlikely to happen…
Not losing so badly as OTL and Francis NOT being captured would surely be helpful. Then Francis can easily arrange a wedding between his heir and Isabella amd maybe remarry to Hedwig if he wanted remarry
The battle itself wasn't quite winnable, even without Francis' idiotic masking of his artillery, but the prelude to it might've been - had Francis not detached 11.000 men under the Duke of Albany in a doomed attempt to conquer Naples, and chosen to defeat the Imperials in the battlefield immediately after invading Lombardy in late 1524 instead of wasting time in the siege of Pavia, I think he could at least held on to Milan.
We'd get a Valois Poland (if Siggie still gets his VD from Signora de Cardona) earlier than OTL. Or a Valois Hungary (pursuant to Zapolya's 1528 offer to name one of François' sons as his heir). France would pretty much rumble on as OTL until François I dies. If Isabella was married to the dauphin, and they were childless, go to OTL. If Isabella were swapped in for Henri II after his marriage to Caterina de Medici was annulled, then we go more or less as OTL until Henri dies. Henri will likelier have healthier and longer lived kids though*, presumably who leave issue. So we might see a Valois UK if he has a second son old enough to marry Mary, QoS from the get go**.
*Also Diane de Poitiers might be given her congé earlier here (like reign of François I earlier) since Isabella is NOT Caterina
**assuming Mary, QoS still exists that is, but my opinion is that HAD a younger son of Henri II existed (aka who could be sent to Scotland) who was close enough in age, Mary would've been married to him instead of creating the logistical nightmare of a Franco-Scottish union. Of course, the Valois UK assumes that Edward VI, Mary I and Elizabeth I all still die childless as OTL. Liz would definitely be under pressure to marry if Mary had had a Catholic heir by 1558-60.
With such early changes (pre-Pavia) Sigismund Augustus could have surviving younger brother (I'm pretty sure change of such magnitude would affect even certain hunting party in Niepołomice Forest).
How is France going to win? And to what extent are the Habsburgs defeated, or is it just a pyrrhic win?