Dornier 19 instead of FW 200

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Deleted member 1487

What if instead of the civilian airliner the FW200 being pressed into service as a long range naval offensive reconnaissance airplane, a role that it was not suited to, as the addition of bombs and evasive maneuvers actually caused the aircraft to break in half, the Luftwaffe continued development of the Dornier 19 to fit this role?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focke-Wulf_Fw_200
The extra weight introduced by its military fitments meant that a number of early Fw 200 aircraft broke up on landing, a problem that was never entirely solved.

Empty weight: 17,005 kg (37,490 lb)
Max. takeoff weight: 24,520 kg (50,057 lb)
Powerplant: 4 × BMW/Bramo 323R-2 nine-cylinder single-row air-cooled radial engine, 895 kW (1,200hp) each

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dornier_Do_19
Empty weight: 11,865 kg (26,158 lb)
Loaded weight: 18,500 kg (40,785 lb)
Powerplant: 4 × BMW 132F radial engine, 604 kW (810 hp) each

The designers proposed fitting the Do19 with the Bramo 323 in the third prototype, which would have given it a similar horse power rating to the FW200, yet it weighed about 5 tons less than the FW200. Its loaded weight was 10,000 pounds less than the FW200 too.
Of course this was the Do19 prototype and lacked the defensive armaments, plus further development, which would have raised the weight, but still, it would probably end up at least 1 ton less than the FW200 and further development of the Do19 would have likely improved aerodynamics.
Both bombers carried a similar bomb load and the Do19 was much better armored. It also didn't break up on landing or under harsh maneuvers.

Furthermore it would have given Germany experience with a strategic long range bomber and a potential for a strategic bomber for the Blitz. Its production could begin before the war too, using the resources that were historically spent on the FW200 (276 built) and the never-ready He177 (1200 built). By 1942 with further development it would have been as good if not better than the B17 according to Erhard Milch, who lamented the missed opportunity.

Okay, how would this happen though? Obviously having Walter Wever live would be the best chance, as after his death even the prototypes were cancelled by Goering. Wever though passed over the Do19 by issuing the Bomber A requirement before the Do19 prototype even flew, but air forces always are thinking a generation ahead for technology, so perhaps this isn't as fatal as one might think.

Having Dornier lobby Wever, who was more strategically minded, to keep development going, as Wever wanted to have the prototypes as demonstrators to develop strategic bombing concepts and build up a training establishment for the technologically complex machines that were strategic bombers, so as to fill the long range naval reconnaissance role that the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine needed anyway and have it adapted for that role instead of needing to convert a civilian aircraft unsuited to military operations because of the lack of anything else.

Two years of development/testing that most aircraft required would mean that a testing start date of October 1936 when the first prototype was delivered would mean it was production ready by ~October 1938. That is earlier than the FW200 was militarized IOTL. Start production in late 1938-early 1939 and continue development with experienced gained from the first production models and the aircraft becomes that much more effective. It certainly had more 'stretch' than the FW200.

Would it have been more effective than the FW200? Certainly, as it wouldn't have been scared off by the Lewis gun defenses of transports in 1941. Its earlier introduction relative to the FW200, as it only entered into the reconnaissance role in June of 1940, the military version taking longer to be adapted, being only produced in small numbers as a transport and Hitler's private plane prior. A Do19 in 1938 would be produced in larger numbers earlier, as it didn't need to be militarized and delayed. It would be properly armored and with a lower weight could last longer over the Atlantic. It wouldn't fall to technical problems nearly as much as the FW200 (even Hitler's transport version had major mechanical issues, even catching fire while flying him to a meeting), so would survive longer and increase numbers over the Atlantic.
It could even be pressed into strategic bombing during the Blitz and carry a heavier load of bombs than any other German bomber. Also its late deployment and early low production wouldn't cut into the resources for the tactical bombers, meaning Germany could have its army support bombers and its strategic/long naval recon aircraft too.

Frankly I'm only seeing win here for the Luftwaffe. What does everyone else think?
 
Provided the tail and cockpit were cleaned up a little bit (but not so as to delay the project) 120 or so navalized DO-19's would be highly valuable with long patrol times and an ok bomb load for attacking merchant ships

(also assume they don't go with the heavy useless twin 20mm mounts (except in the nose) and instead go for single mg mounts for defensive purposes)

they would perform well in the opening years as Britain's resources were stretched thin, and they lacked reliable cannon armed single engine fighters to engage such a plane

however, if the situation became grave; the British would detach fleet carriers armed with sea hurricaines to make things hot for the Dorniers

to counter rapidly constructed escort carriers the dorniers could shift to missiles (fritz x and hs 293 or a navalized wire guided v1) which would give them a second chance; however the allies would eventually just bomb the living shit out of bordeux and any other close operating bases to the point where they can't stage close to their operations areas anymore
 

Deleted member 1487

Provided the tail and cockpit were cleaned up a little bit (but not so as to delay the project) 120 or so navalized DO-19's would be highly valuable with long patrol times and an ok bomb load for attacking merchant ships

(also assume they don't go with the heavy useless twin 20mm mounts (except in the nose) and instead go for single mg mounts for defensive purposes)

they would perform well in the opening years as Britain's resources were stretched thin, and they lacked reliable cannon armed single engine fighters to engage such a plane

however, if the situation became grave; the British would detach fleet carriers armed with sea hurricaines to make things hot for the Dorniers

to counter rapidly constructed escort carriers the dorniers could shift to missiles (fritz x and hs 293 or a navalized wire guided v1) which would give them a second chance; however the allies would eventually just bomb the living shit out of bordeux and any other close operating bases to the point where they can't stage close to their operations areas anymore

The more they bombed Bordeaux, the less they're bombing Germany.
Also it sets up the bait for a FLAK trap. Plus the RAF did not do very well hitting the targets at Brest, which they put tremendous effort into crushing (Scharnhorst). The Brits had to launch high level attacks even at night to avoid the German nightfighters, which were pretty dangerous even early in the war.

Again all win.

Might even these naval bombers help out the Bismarck by going after the RN pursuit vessels? And with such a platform and more of a focus on naval issues might not the Luftwaffe start glide bomb research earlier, making the Fritz X and HS 293 available in 1941?

Edit:
Do19:
do19.jpg


Do217:
do-217-stbd-front.jpg


He277:
C-HE-277.jpg


Lancaster:
lancaste.jpg


I'm thinking both of these provide excellent examples for the Do19 as far as tail assembly and cockpit. The He177 cockpit is pretty much similar.
The bomb bay could use some work too, and just as the Do 217 had some major work done within a year to improve the fuselage and majorly increase internal fuel and bomb load capacity, which is happening around the same time as this version of the Do19 development, is an excellent inspiration for the Do19.
Even the Lancaster has some excellent features that are similar, most notably the tail assembly and gunner position, with an superb bomb bay.
 
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This is an interesting concept with some merit. While the Do-19 would have been obsolescent in its originally intended role of strategic bomber by 1940-41, it might have been useful in the maritime reconnaissance role.

However, one of the most useful traits of maritime aircraft is long range and high endurance, traits at which the Fw-200 (as a lightly-built converted transatlantic airliner) excelled. The range and endurance of the Do-19, however, was less than half of the Fw-200. About the only way to increase the range of the Do-19 would have been to reduce defensive armament and lighten its structure to make room for more fuel. This might have resulted in a plane not much more battleworthy than the Fw-200 when all was said and done.
 
Since the FW Condor was selected by rooting around the avialable aircraft and finding something that would sort of work for long range martime work.

So if in a Wever lives scenerio the DO19 isn't massed produced (waiting on better later models) but the D019 prototypes wern't scrapped, but continued to be worked up for testing later models, that you could crank up protype production of these. They were only producing 4 or 8 Condors per month, it seems you could prototype produce 8 D019s a month and work out the kninks as you go along.

Considering the Condor was a deathtrap for pilots, whatever problems a protype D019 would have, it couldn't be any worse.
 

Deleted member 1487

This is an interesting concept with some merit. While the Do-19 would have been obsolescent in its originally intended role of strategic bomber by 1940-41, it might have been useful in the maritime reconnaissance role.

However, one of the most useful traits of maritime aircraft is long range and high endurance, traits at which the Fw-200 (as a lightly-built converted transatlantic airliner) excelled. The range and endurance of the Do-19, however, was less than half of the Fw-200. About the only way to increase the range of the Do-19 would have been to reduce defensive armament and lighten its structure to make room for more fuel. This might have resulted in a plane not much more battleworthy than the Fw-200 when all was said and done.

The Do19 wouldn't have been obsolescent by 1940-1 as a strategic bomber if used at night. During the day it wasn't an issue to use it, as ultimately even the Ju87 was still useful despite its vulnerability provided escorts can protect them. The B17 was arguably obsolescent during the day until escorts could protect them. By night though in the 1940-1 period the British had virtually no night defenses and it could have been useful for its larger payload capability with a Jumo 211 engine. The bomb bay of the Do19 was modifiable to handle 4 tons of bombs even with the same fuselage thanks to better turrets by 1938 which reduced the space needed for the turrets and reduced the number of crew needed. 4 tons of bombs per mission is nothing to sneer at, especially as the B17 could only deliver 2 tons per mission in 1942-1944 because of the distance involved from flying to Germany from Britain. The Luftwaffe had French bases in 1940-44, so had at least half the distance to Britain.

Historically the FW200, which was far heavier than the Do19 prototype, was only able to achieve its distance by cramming huge amounts of fuel into its fuselage, pretty much eliminating all but a few low weight bombs. The FW200 was listed as having a 2,000kg bombload, but that was maximum for a very short distance, the actual range for the Condor was only achievable at the expense of offensive capability. It had an operating combat radius (one way distance) of 1000km, which was with about 1000kg of bombs, half of what the Do19 could carry.

It could do 1500km without bombs and more fuel.

The Do19 was designed as a long range 'Ural' bomber. It was lighter in prototype form than the FW200 and its poor listed characteristics were the result of having engines during testing that were half of the horse power of the FW200.

Read that again, the listed range is based on engines with half the horse power of the FW200 (1200hp per engine at altitude) (Do19 had ~600hp per engine at altitude-810hp on take off only). That's 4800hp for the Fw200 and 2400hp for the Do19.

The range of the much lighter Do19 would probably double with the same engines as the FW200, which the Do19 was supposed to get by the 3rd prototype (plus defensive armament). So the range would be comparable, though the Do19 could carry at least 2,000kg to that range, rather than the 1000kg for the Condor.

Add in some modifications to improve aerodynamics, like adopt a Do217 nose and tail, and the range, speed, and maneuverability go up. Plus the Do19 was slated to get smaller, lighter, and more efficient turrets that required fewer men to man than initially planned, so it would have less weight than originally planned for in the final version. The redesigns of both the nose and tail would likely chop off some weight too. Further improvements to the wings and fuselage would also improve aerodynamics and capacity/weight.

Plus the Do19 also was structurally stronger than the FW200, as it was a combat design from the beginning and wouldn't therefore break up under strain. It was better armored and wouldn't be shot down as easily, so could survive longer in the Battle of the Atlantic, rather than be unable to attack merchant ships for fear of the Lewis gun AA armament that appeared in 1941.


Since the FW Condor was selected by rooting around the avialable aircraft and finding something that would sort of work for long range martime work.

So if in a Wever lives scenerio the DO19 isn't massed produced (waiting on better later models) but the D019 prototypes wern't scrapped, but continued to be worked up for testing later models, that you could crank up protype production of these. They were only producing 4 or 8 Condors per month, it seems you could prototype produce 8 D019s a month and work out the kninks as you go along.

Considering the Condor was a deathtrap for pilots, whatever problems a protype D019 would have, it couldn't be any worse.
The Do19 of 1938-9 would be significantly improved and would not have that many kinks by the time it was produced. Sure it could be improved upon from then to a more effective aircraft, but it should be a sound design by 1939.
 
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comrade wiking,

im sure the germans would have to maintain a vigorous defense of whatever DO-19 bases they set up (and they would be obvious as she would need hard metal all weather runways that you can't conceal) but as the LW would over stretched by Ameircan involvement; the DO-'s would find their operating bases pounded around the clock and rendered unusable

in the short term though they could get a good deal out of them... in terms of developing anti ship missiles earlier, I am not an expert enough to say on that subject (although using the v1 on a wire seems pretty idiot proof and the US did so with minimal fuss after the war and a v1 could damage the hell out of a carrier (it's half a shaddock missile after all)

one thing i could say for sure is that if the DO-19 was in squadron service (and the bulkhead between the bomb bays was made removable in the serial models) that the LW would produce big bombs much earlier; so they would certainly be much more of a threat to capital ships than they were in otl
 

Deleted member 1487

comrade wiking,

im sure the germans would have to maintain a vigorous defense of whatever DO-19 bases they set up (and they would be obvious as she would need hard metal all weather runways that you can't conceal) but as the LW would over stretched by Ameircan involvement; the DO-'s would find their operating bases pounded around the clock and rendered unusable

in the short term though they could get a good deal out of them... in terms of developing anti ship missiles earlier, I am not an expert enough to say on that subject (although using the v1 on a wire seems pretty idiot proof and the US did so with minimal fuss after the war and a v1 could damage the hell out of a carrier (it's half a shaddock missile after all)

one thing i could say for sure is that if the DO-19 was in squadron service (and the bulkhead between the bomb bays was made removable in the serial models) that the LW would produce big bombs much earlier; so they would certainly be much more of a threat to capital ships than they were in otl

The Battle of the Atlantic was lost by 1942 anyway, when the USAAF began appearing over Europe. The utility of the Do19 as a naval recon bomber was pretty much a dead duck by the second half of 1941 when the HK groups were disbanded and carriers began appearing with convoys. The Do19 could still shadow convoys and report on their whereabouts though. But once the Mosquito shows up the Do19 is toast.

The real utility is in 1940-1 when the convoys were at their most vulnerable and the limited number of uboats needed the assistance of aerial recon.

http://www.uboat.net/technical/fw200.htm
In mid-1941 a change of tactics occurred. The Fw 200 crews were now instructed not to attack, and to evade all combat unless unavoidable. The Condors were used to report allied shipping movements. To guide the U-boats to the convoys they shadowed they transmitted direction finding signal, but they did not directly communicate with the submarines. This was a more effective use of the available numbers, and it also helped to conserve the aircraft: Production was low, and some Fw 200s were diverted to other roles, notably VIP transports. But worse was to come. On 20 September 1941 a Condor was lost when it attacked a convoy escorted by HMS Audacity, the first escort carrier. During the second voyage of the carrier, four Condors were shot down. Although the Audacity was primitive, and soon sunk by U-751, it announced the beginning of the end. The vulnerable Condor was increasingly confronted by enemy fighters, based on catapult-equipped merchant ships (CAM ships), merchant ships with small flight decks (MAC ships), or small escort carriers.

In 1943 the Condors were recalled to be used as transports on the Eastern front, during the Battle of Stalingrad. They later returned to the Atlantic coast, but only a few continued to serve as maritime reconnaissance aircraft. In this role, the Condor was now being replaced by the Ju 290. The Fw 200s returned to anti-shipping strikes. For this purpose, the Fw 200C-6 and C-8 were equipped with the Henschel Hs 293A anti-ship missile, but the type's career was clearly over. The Condor served until the end of the war, but mainly as a transport aircraft.

Production ceased in early 1944, after the Luftwaffe had received 263 out of a total production of 276.
 
Servicability rates and accident reductions alone will give probably a 100% improvement in sorties available for the atlantic even if production would remain in the 4 to 8 level per month.

So if during the happy time until Feb 41 the Germans sunk 331,122 tonnes, double this, and double again to 1,324,488 due the increase in bomb load and capability and now we are talking big numbers, starting to rival submarines.

The Allies will try countermeasures. I can't imagine air interception isn't going to be terrible easy, the Germans were flying Condors into the North Atlantic in 1943. You take off at night loaded and be well out into the atlantic before dawn. You have a big area in all of western France to disperse the aircraft on the ground. Through February 1942 you also have to worry about Sharnhorst and company breaking out so there is many threats to worry about still.
 
I wonder how the Do19 would do as a transport aircraft since OTL they tried using Condors in the Stalingrad Airlift?

So by late 42 when the Allies would have the capability for large scale countermeasures, you use these as transports to Stalingrad and Tunisia where they would be more survivable than a Ju52.
 

Deleted member 1487

Servicability rates and accident reductions alone will give probably a 100% improvement in sorties available for the atlantic even if production would remain in the 4 to 8 level per month.

So if during the happy time until Feb 41 the Germans sunk 331,122 tonnes, double this, and double again to 1,324,488 due the increase in bomb load and capability and now we are talking big numbers, starting to rival submarines.

The Allies will try countermeasures. I can't imagine air interception isn't going to be terrible easy, the Germans were flying Condors into the North Atlantic in 1943. You take off at night loaded and be well out into the atlantic before dawn. You have a big area in all of western France to disperse the aircraft on the ground. Through February 1942 you also have to worry about Sharnhorst and company breaking out so there is many threats to worry about still.

The big benefit is with more recon aircraft aloft, there will be more interceptions and uboats directed to convoys or single ships; the uboats will be maximized and more wolfpacks assembled.
This thread has some interesting ideas about what a strategic bomber type could do for Germany in the naval war:
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=70367
 
How many ships did Fw-200 sink themselves or generate reports on to allow U-Boats to kill? I would double or quad THOSE numbers first.

Michael
 
I wonder how the Do19 would do as a transport aircraft since OTL they tried using Condors in the Stalingrad Airlift?

So by late 42 when the Allies would have the capability for large scale countermeasures, you use these as transports to Stalingrad and Tunisia where they would be more survivable than a Ju52.

it was an uncompromised bomber with a narrow bomb bay plus it would need huge all weather runways; it would suck as an emergency trasnport
 
So by late 42 when the Allies would have the capability for large scale countermeasures, you use these as transports to Stalingrad and Tunisia where they would be more survivable than a Ju52.
More expensive though, and fewer in number, and bombers rarely make great transports, military cargo tends to be less heavy and more bulky than bombs, so their carriage is limited.
 

Deleted member 1487

it was an uncompromised bomber with a narrow bomb bay plus it would need huge all weather runways; it would suck as an emergency trasnport

The bomb bay and fuselage would probably be expanded by 1942 after years of improvements on the 1934 design/1936 prototype. Still, I fully agree with all of you pointing out the problems with it being a transport.


How many ships did Fw-200 sink themselves or generate reports on to allow U-Boats to kill? I would double or quad THOSE numbers first.

Michael
Supposedly the Condors sank about 360,000 tons of shipping by themselves by picking off single ships that didn't want to convoy or fell behind. Of course those numbers have been challenged, so for the sake of argument, let's say about 150k tons of shipping to the Condors.
Plus until 1941 B-dienst had cracked the convoy codes, so knew when and where the convoys were supposed to be. Of course they zig-zagged, so the Uboats with their limited spotting range often missed them in this period, even though they posted up where the convoys were supposed to be. They also had a hard time assembling Wolf Packs, but when they did, the Uboats were brutally successful in this period. With 100 Do19s with less accidents and greater serviceability, they could easily double or triple interceptions and Wolf Packs. Especially in the early period with minimal escorts the Uboats could sink entire convoys with surface attacks at night. The Do19 could also target the escorting ships and help pick them off.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fliegerführer_Atlantik
Problems with the Condor:
Improvements were relatively quick, but the type was a civilian design, converted to military use. Initially Fw 200Bs were built to fly in thin air at high altitude, with no sharp manoeuvring. Kurt Tank – its designer – had made the aircraft’s long range possible by using a light airframe that was two to four tons lighter than its contemporaries. This meant the aircraft did not have fuel tank sealant or armour protection. An under-strength structure contributed to these vulnerabilities, which made the Fw 200 unable to sustain much punishment. The engines were also underpowered, meaning it struggled to stay airborne if one was knocked out. The six unarmoured fuel tanks inside the cabin made it exceptionally prone to bursting into flames. When a Condor attempted to manoeuvre to avoid anti-aircraft fire or enemy fighters, its weak structure could be damaged, causing metal fatigue and cracks, resulting in the loss of the aircraft.[27] In the C variant, major improvements were made to its defensive armament, causing fighters to avoid lengthy duels. However, they operated at low level mostly, to avoid attacks from below. This limited their operational range and options. They could ‘jink’ to throw an enemy aircraft off its aim, but they could not outrun or outturn an opponent. Poor evasion qualities meant the type was not the ideal operational weapon.[28]

"First Happy Time"
The period, August 1940 to May 1941, was known by the Germans as the First Happy Time, because of the considerable amount of Allied ships sunk for light losses. Even before the formation of Fliegerführer Atlantik, the success of air attack on convoys during this time was almost immediate. Under the command of Donitz, in August 1940 – February 1941, Fw 200s sank 52 ships for only four losses.[29] By Christmas 1940, KG 40 had sunk 19 ships of 100,000 tons and damaged 37 of 180,000 tons. In January, 17 ships were sunk (65,000 tons) and five damaged.[30] February was worse for the British, losing 21 ships to Fw 200s, totalling 84,301 tons.[31]

In January 1941 HX 90, OB 274, HG 50 and SL 61 were successfully attacked. The later raid, on 19 January, sank seven ships from HG 50 and SL 61. [30] On 8 February, U-37 discovered convoy HG.53. The U-Boat reported its presence to Fliegerführer Atlantik. I./KG 40 was dispatched and sank five ships (9,201 grt), although 29,000 grt was claimed. The role was reversed a few days later when Convoy OB.288 was discovered by Fw 200s, and U-Boats sank a number of ships. However, inadequate navigation training, exacerbated by out-of-date meteorological data, created errors in location of reports of up to 450 kilometres (280 mi), while 19 per cent of all reports gave errors in course of up to 90 degrees.[20]

It was not always easy, communicating and coordinating with air and sea forces. U-Boats were unable to make accurate navigation using sun or star sightings and even when convoys were located they had trouble homing in bombers because their short-range transmitters were too weak to reach the aircraft. However, they were strong enough to alter British defences. Harlinghausen was irritated when his aircraft communicated accurate locations and the U-Boats failed to respond. Only when he complained to the BdU did he learn from Donitz that the navy failed to inform the Luftwaffe that there were no U-Boats in the area to respond. By the end of March, 1941, attempts at close cooperation were abandoned in favour of more flexible approached. Donitz noted in his war diary that enemy signals about German air attacks would allow his intelligence (B-Dienst) to locate the convoy – he supposed that this would offer a better chance of interception.[20]

During the first quarter of 1941, the Condors sank 171,000 grt, the vast majority being lone ships. In one case, a sustained attack upon Convoy OB.290 on 26 February 1941 accounted for seven to nine vessels (49,865 grt), all sunk by KG 40 Fw 200s. However, with never more than eight aircraft operational, this was an exception. Soon, British CAM ship (catapult aircraft merchantmen) appeared, and the time of light Condor losses ended.[20][31]
Donitz envisaged a cooperation of air and sea forces in mass attacks against convoys. The wolfpack tactics were proving successful, and he sought to supplement them with the Luftwaffe. The Condors were to break up the convoys, and scatter them so the Wolf packs could move in and dispatch the ships while they were unprotected. In March, the Luftwaffe won back control of KG 40 had placed under Harlinghausen’s control, and success dried up. KG 40 was forced to suspend operations for two weeks (probably due to insufficient support).[32]

British retaliation
The British recognised the threat posed by long-range German naval aircraft and set operations in motion to destroy the Condors at base. A Commando mission was considered but dismissed for operational difficulties and the likelihood of failure and heavy casualties. Instead, RAF Bomber Command was asked to destroy the bases on the Atlantic coast. These operations had been carried out before Fliegerführer Atlantik had been formed. An RAF raid on 22/23 November 1940 destroyed four hangars and two Fw 200s. Follow up raids were unsuccessful, and it was not until 13 April 1941 that three more Fw 200s were lost to air attack. The British failed to disrupt production at the Focke-Wulf plant at Bremen or to destroy more Condors in the field, due to poor bombing accuracy and improved German defences.[33]
Donitz, c-in-c of U-Boats, tried to have Fliegerführer Atlantik reinforced and handed over to the operational control of the Kriegsmarine. He succeeded in gaining control of KG 40 on 6 January 1941, but lost within two months after Göring requested Hitler to allow its return to the Luftwaffe, in exchange for creating Fliegerführer Atlantik to support the submarines. Hitler obliged and Donitz lost his reconnaissance and air units. Göring was more interested in maintaining control over all air units rather than helping the Kriegsmarine knock out British sea communications. With KG 40 back in Göring’s hands, he persisted in refusing to lend them to Donitz. They were frequently diverted to other tasks.[19] The situation facing the small German forces were made worse by operational difficulties. After 1941, Fliegerführer Atlantik never had more than 50 aircraft operational.[34] The feeble number of aircraft available denied German air power the chance to have strategic significance in the Atlantic war.[35]

http://kriegsmarinetheforgottenserv...ke-wulf-fw-200-long-range-sea-reconnaissance/
 
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So if we assume that the same percentage or air strike to recon missions occur, happy time submarine losses were 300,000 in September, and drifted down below 200,000 tons per month torwards the end of the year. So if we increate this total by 100,000 tons per month for 6 months added to the previous air attack total and your talking 2 million tons of extra shipping sunk.

(10 ships on average were already being sunk per mission by each sub during this time, so fuel range and number of torpedos provides an upper limit).

These kind of rates will scare Britain and invite possible counter measures:

1) Fleet aircraft carriers will provide cover for convoys, even at the expense of mediteranean operations, i.e. you pull Illustrious from the med, meaning no Taranto operation. But since the Italians are passive anyway this doesn't hurt much.

2) Put your Bomber Command Wellingtons and such in Ulster and fly top cover as far as you can. Put the rest of Bomber Command over the bay of Biscay to try and force the Uboats down as much as possible in transit.

3) Less convoys to the mid east. No WS5A, no Tiger etc... Use the heavy escort for these to regular convoys. So don't attack the Italians in North Africa in December 1940. They aint gonna do nothing anyway. Wait on attacking east africa.

4) Invade the Azores and make them into an ASW air base, whats Portugal gonna do, DOW you, really!

5) Cut production of stuff so you need less imports, Bombers and bombs for Bomber command for one. Cut home army production (welcome any attempt at invasion), and cut stuff for the mid east (no attacks just hold the suez canal and alexandria, no Greece, Libya or East Africa, Dakar, Syria etc.)

Just survive until escort carriers are built in sufficient numbers then move on.
 

Deleted member 1487

(10 ships on average were already being sunk per mission by each sub during this time, so fuel range and number of torpedos provides an upper limit).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Type_VII_submarine#Specifications
Most attacks in 1940-early 1941 were surface night attack with the deck gun. The ASDIC couldn't detect them when they attacked and the convoys couldn't spot them at night. The deck gun had 220 rounds, so the kills easily could be higher than that especially if Wolf Packs could be organized, as this overloaded the few escorts available during that period.
 
I think to enable Do-19 production, then much less chance of Do-17 and thus Do-217 production.
But yes, I agree seems plausible and/or likely that if Do-19 then no need for Fw-200.
However, there is a downside - the Fw-200 was an aircraft that couldn't be used for much else, but the Do-19 will be much more capable, and therefore Goering will not allow it for long to be a naval plaything, not when Hitler is screaming blue murder at the lack of bombers dropping their bombs over Britain!
Though I disagree about the He-177, I think it would be the successor but with four engines - rather than the two double engines!
 
i assume once long range fighter patrols in the bay of biscay start that the Dorniers would be escorted as far as possible by JU-88 and Me-110 heavy fighters (plus they would take off and head for their patrol sectors before dawn to reduce risk of interception)

however their big menace starting in 41 besides the fleet carriers with cannon armed fighters will be B-24's based out of new foundland, green land, iceland and the uk

the B-24 would outfly the shit out of a do-19 with 323's and it had 4 20mm cannons in a ventral tray intended for uboat straffing which would translate over perfectly to bomber destruction

the solution in turn would be to equip the do-19 with bmw 801's which would allow them to cruise much faster (with fast bomb runs they could probably outrun hurricaines)

then improved carrier fighters would make their life hell which logically would lead to missile attacks attempting to sink carriers so that the convoy could be attacked further with less risk to the flock

fritz x or navalized v1 with wire guiding mission kill if not sink an escort carrier in one hit; thats when bordeux/maginac get bombed into oblivion to deny the condors their operating bases
 

Deleted member 1487

I think to enable Do-19 production, then much less chance of Do-17 and thus Do-217 production.
But yes, I agree seems plausible and/or likely that if Do-19 then no need for Fw-200.
However, there is a downside - the Fw-200 was an aircraft that couldn't be used for much else, but the Do-19 will be much more capable, and therefore Goering will not allow it for long to be a naval plaything, not when Hitler is screaming blue murder at the lack of bombers dropping their bombs over Britain!
Though I disagree about the He-177, I think it would be the successor but with four engines - rather than the two double engines!

I think that is a fair trade off. The Do17 was a waste of resource and the most likely to be shot down. The Do217 wasn't really produced in numbers until 1942 anyway and wasn't really that useful due to the BMW 801 overheating issues until 1942. By 1942 the Do19 could be phased out in favor of the He177 if its functional or not and continued as Germany's strategic bomber and gets all of the Do17, Do217, and He177 resources of OTL and gets continually upgraded and improved, being able to carry heavier loads as it is upgraded. The Do217, though a fine aircraft, pretty much tried to butt in on roles the Ju88 covered just as well, so I think the trade off it worth it if the He177 doesn't get produced if it still has the coupled engines and 1200 bombers and their resources can instead be spent on the Do19 or an upgraded version (a Do219?).

So assuming the He177 has a coupled engine and is non-functional and doesn't get produced (unlikely if Wever and Wimmer are around, they wouldn't have gone for the dive bombing role of the He177 nor the coupled engines) and the Do217 is not produced, the Luftwaffe focuses on the Do19 as the strategic bomber and the Ju88 as the medium bomber. The He111 can hopefully be phased out by 1942 in favor of the Ju88. Plus if the mess with the Me210 is avoided, then that is even more resources. The Do19 then can be produced in much greater numbers in 1940-2 and actually staff a strategic bomber squadron(s) that would be available during the Blitz with greater range than the Ju88 and double the payload.

That opens up butterflies for Russia if Germany now has a strategic bomber worthy of the name that can operate against strategic targets like this:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=254094


i assume once long range fighter patrols in the bay of biscay start that the Dorniers would be escorted as far as possible by JU-88 and Me-110 heavy fighters (plus they would take off and head for their patrol sectors before dawn to reduce risk of interception)

however their big menace starting in 41 besides the fleet carriers with cannon armed fighters will be B-24's based out of new foundland, green land, iceland and the uk

the B-24 would outfly the shit out of a do-19 with 323's and it had 4 20mm cannons in a ventral tray intended for uboat straffing which would translate over perfectly to bomber destruction

the solution in turn would be to equip the do-19 with bmw 801's which would allow them to cruise much faster (with fast bomb runs they could probably outrun hurricaines)

then improved carrier fighters would make their life hell which logically would lead to missile attacks attempting to sink carriers so that the convoy could be attacked further with less risk to the flock

fritz x or navalized v1 with wire guiding mission kill if not sink an escort carrier in one hit; thats when bordeux/maginac get bombed into oblivion to deny the condors their operating bases
Pretty much agree with all of this, but I think once the Do19 proves its worth and production ramps up and a demand for bomber squadrons against land targets increases, then the Jumo 211J and DB601E will open up for them, which give another major boost to HP. Come 1942 and the DB603 and 605 are ready, which is against another boost in power. 1943 would see the Jumo 213 appear. Plus from 1942 on the BMW 801 is reliable and has major increases in power throughout the war. If the He177 has problems like in OTL it doesn't end up getting produced and the Do19 improved soldiers on with upgrades and just keeps increasing in power and ability.
 
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