Doolittle's Gamble

Preface

In the early hours of April 18th, a Japanese picket boat caught sight of TF16, and radioed word to Japan. All sixteen B-25B Mitchells took off from the USS Hornet from 8:21 to 9:23, with a three to four hour flight ahead of them. At Japan, seventy-eight A6M1's and A6M2's, and heavy AA fire was waiting for the sixteen aircraft. Eleven were completely destroyed, with all the crew dying, three crashed in Japan, their crew's executed, and two including Doolittle's, weaving their way through, and dropping their bombs before crashing. A total of nineteen airmen and Doolittle were executed from the 19th to 22nd.

TF16, was attacked by twenty-nine G4M1's, with nineteen carrying bombs for level bombing, and ten loaded with torpedoes. The twenty-three F4F-3/4 Wildcat defense took down, eighteen G4M1's, fifteen carrying 1x 800kg bomb, and four carrying a Type 91. The USS Hornet, was siced upon by both the torpedo G4M1's, and the bomb G4M1's. Another six was shot down, three carrying the 1x 800kg bomb, and three carrying a Type 91 torpedo. The other five G4M1's wrecked the USS Hornet, with all crew being lost. The Enterprise, was under a mild rain squall, avoiding damage. The Doolittle Raid was truly a disaster, how would it affect it's future battles?
 
Seems fairly plausible, except for the loss of the entire crew of the Hornet. Even the catastrophic destruction of the HMS Hood had three survivors, so for the USS Hornet to lose it's entire crew would be near impossible.

Other than that, it is a good start. Perhaps the USA adopts a less aggressive posture in the Pacific, wary of losing their ever dwindling naval units. The Atlantic is sure to be thinned out to send ships to the Pacific, but without a doubt, the USA still defeats Japan in the end.
 
The minute the last B-26 was launched the Hornet turned around and skedaddled. Even if they launch at the planned point, by the time the Japanese can get a strike together...and they don't have aircraft just waiting to do this. I haven't run the numbers but assuming they launch at the designated spot & spotted same time, it is questionable whether they will be within range by the time the Japanese can get to their new position. And, with every hour the area the Japanese need to search to find them gets bigger.

In your scenario the Japanese are ~ 4 hours flying time from the Hornet at launch, and she will be ~100 nm from that point at the earliest possible time the Japanese could be there if they took of the minute they got the warning. It ill take at least 2 hours for them to get that strike together...so add another 50nm.

With your POD can see the Japanese intercepting the raiders, but as they went to different cities and Japanese air defense sucked at that time, more would get through. Getting the Hornet under this scenario, ASB unless lots of other changes..like moving Japanese carriers from where they were to a position where thye might intercept Hornet.
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
The minute the last B-26 was launched the Hornet turned around and skedaddled. Even if they launch at the planned point, by the time the Japanese can get a strike together...and they don't have aircraft just waiting to do this. I haven't run the numbers but assuming they launch at the designated spot & spotted same time, it is questionable whether they will be within range by the time the Japanese can get to their new position. And, with every hour the area the Japanese need to search to find them gets bigger.

In your scenario the Japanese are ~ 4 hours flying time from the Hornet at launch, and she will be ~100 nm from that point at the earliest possible time the Japanese could be there if they took of the minute they got the warning. It ill take at least 2 hours for them to get that strike together...so add another 50nm.

With your POD can see the Japanese intercepting the raiders, but as they went to different cities and Japanese air defense sucked at that time, more would get through. Getting the Hornet under this scenario, ASB unless lots of other changes..like moving Japanese carriers from where they were to a position where thye might intercept Hornet.

Good eye, dude.
 
Doolittle is elevated to martyr status probably as a man who gave his life to stike a blow against Imperial Japan.

To be honest, the biggest impacts I see is the General Staff gently reminding Roosevelt of the Raid every time he proposes something they don't like and perhaps having him yield a time or two. This will likely translate to more conservative campaign is King gets his way.

Another side effect was, Nagumo's task force may not be suddenly recalled to Japan and continue it's harassing campaign against the Royal Navy.
 
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