Don Baltasar Carlos de Austria

Alright, so I know that this has been discussed many times before, but, to my knowledge, most of the said discussions never get beyond a few posts. I even attempted to start a TL on the subject a few years back, but never got farther than a couple entries in. I would, however, like to discuss the scenario from a different angle...

So, what if Baltasar Carlos (1629-1646) had survived his father, King Felipe IV, and succeeded to the Spanish thrones as King Carlos II? The young prince of the Asturias as known to be a healthy child, unlike most of his father's other offspring, and his death from smallpox came as a shock to many. For discussion's sake, let's also say that the infante weds his first cousin, Archduchess Maria Anna as planned, and, against all odds, manages to produce a healthy son and stave off the War of Spanish Succession (this can be with the aforementioned archduchess, or perhaps with a second, more distantly related wife).

This taken into consideration, I'm curious as to how this affect the following events:

What does this mean for the end of the Thirty Years' War? I imagine not much would be changed? Also, what does this mean for France and the Fronde? What would Spanish intervention be like with a healthy male heir and a secure succession? And, taken further, how would Spanish policy in the later years of the reign of King Felipe IV be changed by a male heir and a secured succession?

Does this mean that Infanta Maria Teresa will still wed King Louis XIV to secure a Franco-Spanish alliance in the 1660s? Or is it more likely that she would be wed to an Austrian cousin (probably the King of the Romans, who may or may not die of smallpox in TTL?). And if not, how would French policy be affected without a Peace of the Pyrenees? Also, if King Felipe IV has a surviving heir with his first wife, it means that all claims of King Louis XIV to the Spanish Netherlands in the right of his wife are null and void, so the French are going to have to dig deeper into their bag of tricks for eastern expansionism to take place...

More interestingly, with no War of Spanish Succession, how will this affect Eastern European politics? With Peter the Great looking for a seaport and to open up relations with other European powers, does this mean that Austria may ally with him in fighting the Ottomans, and possibly reconquering most of Hungary? If the Russian Empire gains access to the Black Sea, this could mean a surviving Swedish Empire in the north.

Any thoughts? I'd really like to start a more in depth discussion on the topic, since I may just attempt a TL in the future...
 
I'm not sure how likely it is you can posit a health offspring for him. While generally a cousin-stranger-cousin-stranger set of marriges can cancel out problems (indeed, modern science finds it generally takes 2+ generations of cousin marriage to cause noticeable problems) I'm not sure if even that would have saved a hypothetical son at this point.
 
I'm not sure how likely it is you can posit a health offspring for him. While generally a cousin-stranger-cousin-stranger set of marriges can cancel out problems (indeed, modern science finds it generally takes 2+ generations of cousin marriage to cause noticeable problems) I'm not sure if even that would have saved a hypothetical son at this point.

I don't know, if you compare the pedigrees of Baltasar Carlos and Maria Teresa with those of their unfortunate brother Carlos II in OTL, the results are pretty self-explanatory. The marriage of King Felipe IV to Elisabeth of France was a sound move in hindsight, as it introduced a great deal of new Medici and Bourbon blood into the Habsburg gene pool--Baltasar Carlos had eight different great-grandparents, which I would say is pretty impressive for any Baroque prince.

Yes, I know that a first cousin marriage for Baltasar Carlos ITTL may be problematic, but I'm just going off of the assumption that there is some chance for a surviving, healthy son to be born of it.

In any case, I'm more concerned with the ramifications of Baltasar Carlos himself surviving to old age and what they mean for seventeenth century Europe.
 
I'm not sure how likely it is you can posit a health offspring for him. While generally a cousin-stranger-cousin-stranger set of marriges can cancel out problems (indeed, modern science finds it generally takes 2+ generations of cousin marriage to cause noticeable problems) I'm not sure if even that would have saved a hypothetical son at this point.

And a negative side effect of the reformation on the royal marriage market was that it (greatly) reduced the number of avaible candidates with the right religion.

By the time that Balthasar Carlos would have to succeed Philip IV ITTL, he normally, if he was fertile, would have had a family and a heir. This might have influenced some of the decisions of the king of 'Spain'...
 
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I'm not sure how likely it is you can posit a health offspring for him. While generally a cousin-stranger-cousin-stranger set of marriges can cancel out problems (indeed, modern science finds it generally takes 2+ generations of cousin marriage to cause noticeable problems) I'm not sure if even that would have saved a hypothetical son at this point.

Generally, yes, but the gene pool can deal you a lucky wild card sometimes. Just look at the Infanta Margarita Teresa, full sister, I might add, of Carlos II.

If you consider it along the lines of increased chances of recessive genetic ailments, there is still the possibility for a healthy child to be born free of them, albeit it is less and less of a percentage of success with each generation of inbreeding. Also, consider that King Felipe IV may have also infected some of his later children by his second wife with congenital syphilis--something that didn't help their already mounting genetic problems.

By the time that Balthasar Carlos would have to succeed Philip IV ITTL, he normally, if he was fertile, would have had a family and a heir. This might have influenced soem of the decisions of the king of 'Spain'...

Exactly, and this is what I'm particularly interested in: how will King Felipe IV's policies in particular be affected if his son survives and the succession is secure? Especially in regard to France and his Austrian cousins.
 
I think the real interesting things would come up in regard to the Italian possessions. With no War of Spanish Succession you can bet that France will fight for control of it again and again. And how will nationalism - if it ever rise - be handled by the Spaniards?
 
It's interesting, but like others, I think the likelihood of a viable heir is low, especially given the wife posited in the OP. I suspect the War of Spanish Succession will be breaking out on schedule.

Of course, Baltasar Carlos appears to be free of gross physical and mental defects and will be aware that he has no heir; nor will he be dominated by his wife or his illegitimate half-brother Juan (I expect, anyway). Spain can be MUCH better prepared for that conflict than OTL.

An ideal outcome might actually be to have him have an illegitimate son or two, and after his wife dies, he marries their mother and declares them legitimate. Won't go down well with his Austrian relatives, but it provides a functional quasiHapsburg heir with a treasury and military prepared for a disputed succession...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I'm not sure how likely it is you can posit a health offspring for him. While generally a cousin-stranger-cousin-stranger set of marriges can cancel out problems (indeed, modern science finds it generally takes 2+ generations of cousin marriage to cause noticeable problems) I'm not sure if even that would have saved a hypothetical son at this point.

It easily could, while the risk for some minor defects are rather high, the risk of a full Carlos II are rather low. But you could easily get a bunch of somewhat normal children with the ones with the worst defect dieing early (this is really the incredible thing about Carlos II, not that he so many defects, but that he so long a life rather than dying in early childhood).
 
Just my two cents to throw in - another proposed wife for Baltasar Carlos was Mary, Princess Royal, eldest daughter of Charles I. Both the English parliament and Madrid were lukewarm to the match, resulting instead in her being sent to the Netherlands to marry Willem II of Orange, who shouldve been marrying her younger sister Elizabeth.
I realise Mary's only child was the sickly and asthmatic William III, (healthy compared to Carlos II though) but maybe she could be luckier with Baltasar Carlos????

PS: It was Marie de Medicis who had apparently orchestrated the marriage between the Lady Elizabeth Stuart and William II, while King Charles (who saw the house of Nassau of not being worthy of a king's daughter [or some such BS]) pressed for the marriage of the Princess Mary to Baltasar Carlos, son of the king of Spain.
 
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