Glen
Moderator
Just because the Chuen is conservative does not mean it will not be able to reform, it will just adopt western practises with a Chinese face.
Another distinct possibility - just look at Meiji Japan in OTL - though they did have to change some social conventions there as I recall....but modernization does not always mean westernization, I agree.
I do however agree that in the long run the Chuen are vulnerable and if and when they are annexed by the UCS, then Manchuria will be vulnerable as well.
Both fair points - though the Manchus in Manchuria have more to fear from Russian annexation for the immediate future, but that can change as well.
What does Manchuria call itself BTW; the Empire of Manchuria or Kingdom of Manchuria or does it still refuse to recognise it has lost so much territory (eg, the Qing still call themselves the Emperors of China)?
Basically it still refers to itself as Qing China officially, but unofficially almost everyone is already calling it Manchuria.
What I meant to say is that the conservatism will likely lead to them being isolationist
A distinct political possibility, and a definite policy in the short term, at least politically - in terms of modernization, we shall see....
and would likely get a response from their non Confusian minorities not necessarily that it can not reform (though it will likely be a violent change).
Huh, lost me here - can you expand and clarify?
Something tells me that Manchuria is likely to be divided at some point between Russia, Chuen China (or a unified China) and Japan (if it gets off the funk its in right now) or Korea, which without Japan and China preassuring it can grow into a local power.
Or annexed entirely by one of those - yes, either is a VERY real possibility - or Manchuria could choose to join someone voluntarily, or it could even finally develop some diplomatic instincts and play opposing powers off each other to retain some independence. Let us say that the Manchu live in interesting times....