On July 15th of 1889, months before the republican coup, Pedro II of Brazil was leaving a theater when the republican Adriano Augusto do Vale shot at his carriage multiple times, and later ran away just to be arrested and pardoned by the emperor, who survived the attempt unscated. What if he succesfully commited the regicide? Pedro II was not going to resist the upcoming coup, but now Isabel is in the throne, and she got even more support due the abolition, what are your opinions on the subject?
Dom Pedro II of Brazil shot in 1889
It depends, Pedro II refused to investigate the case, the elite could have been responsible for the attempt against his life and they could be expecting the chaos of the regicide to launch the coup earlier.
It probably would delay, but not stop the end of the monarchy. Think about Portugal, where the king and his heir were shot and, despite the outcry, two years later the country became a republic. In fact, the later the Republic comes, the more violent the coup could be. Deodoro da Fonseca might be already dead when the conditions for the coup arrive. My guess: it would happen after some economical crisis caused by an alt-crisis of "Encilhamento" - some of the politics imposed by Rui Barbosa were already in place or planned by the imperial government, the Republic only accelerated them.
The coup of November 15th is instantly butterflied away, people are going to be sympathetic to Isabel as never before and angry at the republicans too. Everyone that is not a radical republican is going to abandon the movement. Expect stones thrown at the windows of republican newspapers and mobs gathering around the houses of the main republican figures.
Well on the short term Dom Pedro II had a lot of support thus just by being associated with his death I think Republic is not happening for quite a while, the government he built is competent enough to run things by itself so with the assassination it could get the leeway required to survive the initial issues while finishing the ongoing projects that would make a coup unlikely to happen.
After that I am uncertain, Isabel would likely just let them continue their good work but I don't have enough knowledge of her husband and children to say how they would act. Still considering how awful the Old Republic was I feel confident to say whatever might happen would be leagues better.
After that I am uncertain, Isabel would likely just let them continue their good work but I don't have enough knowledge of her husband and children to say how they would act. Still considering how awful the Old Republic was I feel confident to say whatever might happen would be leagues better.
The only policy that I see Isabel changing in the short term would be the religious policy of Pedro II, he was on the side of the Freemasonry in their quarrel against the Catholic Church (to what the freemasons paid the emperor dearly by happily stabbing him in the back by welcoming the Republic) and I can see Isabel making a turn of 180 degrees on that. The Empire had a draconian policy against religious orders too, Isabel could probably use her political power to make the parliament and the government change some policies on that aspect.
She would allow the woman vote in the mid-late 1890s, or at the early 1900s at max, she had already said "If women can rule, they can vote too", this, hovewer, could be used by the republicans as a excuse to coup her too..
You mean that letter of her stating they were planning to give lands to former slaves? Was that letter ever proved authentic? I mean, I don't doubt it, but it seems too good to be true...
If she acts quickly Isabel can make any changes that she wants, her popularity after the regicide will be high enough to do it, but that boost is going to last only for some years (around two years maybe). It is fun to imagine how the things could evolve with secret ballots, women, and former slaves votes in the 1890s.
I don't know for how long you can avoid republicanism, Isabel would not have acted quickly to enact any sweeping changes, as she was known to be uninterested in ruling. I believe Roderick J. Barman wrote that "in the view of posterity, Isabel acted decisively only once on a single issue: the immediate abolition of slavery".
Isabel wasn't unintelligent by any means, but she doesn't have any real experience in ruling, having been pregnant for much of the regencies, and very much rendered ineffective by the miscarriages.
Isabel wasn't unintelligent by any means, but she doesn't have any real experience in ruling, having been pregnant for much of the regencies, and very much rendered ineffective by the miscarriages.
Let's act on the theory that the republicans were behind this attempt, and so after hearing the news about the success of the attempt, they launch the coup immediately, what happens?
From the biographies I've read about D.Isabel she was bossy and had AM interesting polítical mind. She was all for a chance to from a rural to an urban society, given a little more time her courting of rising bourgeoisie and industrial site would bear fruits. Acording to viscount Mauá papers, he had already raised the money for his joint slave project with Isabel. Are you guys aware that in her honeymoon and trips to Europe the thing she most enjoyed was touring factories? She kept a notebook, writing down everything she thought that could be important for Brazil.
This is a very fascinating idea! By 1889 Pedro II was more useful and powerful as a symbol rather than a ruling Sovereign and his assassination would cause a major rallying cry against Republicans for Brazilians everywhere. For the martyred Emperor! Or something similar. Pedro II's death is also likely to kill the ill and popular Empress Teresa as well, meaning the Republicans can be blamed for murdering the Imperial couple, not just the Emperor. So Empress Isabel ascends the throne on a wave of popular sympathy and her own personal popularity that existed among the commoners and ex-slaves. However, Gukpard I think the idea that the Republicans are behind the assassination and have a plan to launch a coup when the murder is confirmed is a step too far. The army was infiltrated by Republicans and Slavocrats but I can't see anyone supporting a coup so soon after the Emperor's assassination. It would be much more likely to explode in their faces. However if you want to go down that route I think we'd see the public apathy of OTL turn to riots in the streets and army units siding with the Empress. Even if the coup id delayed by a few years (1891/1892) that still might be enough time to completely discredit the Republicans. The liberal progressive reforms that were being prepared or were already in the Parliament would mean the Monarchy would be the heroes and guardians of democracy. A coup could easily fail because the Republicans have nothing left to offer that the Monarchy hasn't already done. Sure the former elite would still hate her but if the Army can be brought back to the Monarchy's side then the Republicans and Slavocrats are out of luck.
Also, from what I can tell a lot of what Roderick J. Barman wrote (that she was disinterested in the throne, a religious ultra-conservative, planned to make her husband the Comte d'Eu the de-facto ruler ex ex) is fundamentally false when compared to the bio by James McMurtry Longo.
Also, from what I can tell a lot of what Roderick J. Barman wrote (that she was disinterested in the throne, a religious ultra-conservative, planned to make her husband the Comte d'Eu the de-facto ruler ex ex) is fundamentally false when compared to the bio by James McMurtry Longo.