Dolittle raid moved back a couple of days

Search didn't show much about this. As in our time line the ships are detected. Instead of launching the raid, they head a different direction and let the alert die down. Planes launch 3 days later from the planned distance ( I want to say 600 miles) undetected. Would more of the Mitchell's make their landing fields in China? I would presume that even though the raid was detected, would the Japanese defenses still be at a higher alert level? How long would they keep it. They might think, OK the Yankees were detected and nothing happened. Maybe the Yankees went home.
Enquiring Minds Want to Know .
docfl
 
I think it could shake down a couple of different ways depending on the Japanese response.

Of course the Americans have just sunk a Japanese picket boat, so the Japanese are going to investigate by sending some kind of force to the region. The key thing is whether or not this force detects the Americans or not. If so, the whole raid is scuttled, but if not, then the raid might be launched from the planned distance of roughly 600 nautical miles.

Should the raid go ahead as you describe, I think it would be just as big a surprise as OTL. I don't see there being enough reason in the picket ship's transmission to raise air defense levels in Japan. This time however the planes will have enough fuel to get to China and continue to operate for at least a while.

The real question is what happens during those 3 days between them being sighted and launching and how the Americans elude discovery to get in range.
 
Although a warning was definitely sent, it hasn't ever been confirmed that it was received, and if so, by whom. No particular response was observed, either by the attacking aircraft or the launch fleet, that would indicate a heightened response beyond the regular aerial drills regularely performed. I've wondered what would have happened if they just sailed the extra 170 miles.

5 crewman remain alive to date. No pilots.
 

Hyperion

Banned
I would say more realistic options are either A) the raid goes ahead as OTL with no difference.

That or more likely B) Halsey decides that with surprise no longer available, his best bet is to scrub the mission and turn the fleet back to Pearl. Doolittle and his squadron either end up operating out of Pearl Harbor, possibly going to Midway or the South Pacific later on. Doolittle will be lucky to become a one star general if anything.

Simply put, at this period in the war, Halsey can not afford to risk two of the four operational carriers in the Pacific Fleet. Waiting around for two or three days against an unknown, possibly powerful Japanese response would unacceptable.
 
Even if the raid is a complete success and all of the B-25's arrive safely in China, I doubt it's going to change much from OTL. Sure the AVG and it's successor the 14th Airforce are going to have a few more bombers to play around with (In OTL they had 7 B-25's operational in 1942) but spare parts are still going to be a problem initially.

Even if the raid succeeds wildly, any future raids are definitely not going to happen due to the immense risk involved and the much greater defenses in and around the home islands...
 
That or more likely B) Halsey decides that with surprise no longer available, his best bet is to scrub the mission and turn the fleet back to Pearl.

I believe that it wasn't in Halsey's character to turn and run. That might have been mitigated by the fact that they were Army aircraft.
 
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