Dole-Powell 1996

What if Bob Dole had picked (and convinced) General Colin Powell to be his running mate in 1996?

Pat Buchanan said that if Dole picked a pro-choice running mate he'd run third party. I'm not quite sure he'd get very far though, considering how his 2000 bid went.
 
What if Bob Dole had picked (and convinced) General Colin Powell to be his running mate in 1996?

Pat Buchanan said that if Dole picked a pro-choice running mate he'd run third party. I'm not quite sure he'd get very far though, considering how his 2000 bid went.

But in 2000, a major reason that Buchanan did so poorly was that neither the GOP presidential nor vice-presidential candidate was unsatisfactory to most social conservatives--as Powell would be in 1996.
 
An overwhelming majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are going to be fine voting for the Republican nominee under a whole continent of circumstances, one of which is picking a nominally pro-choice Vice President in 1996.

But another problem here is Powell's reluctance to run against his former commander-in-chief. Not only are their records somewhat linked, Powell is not going to play the whistleblower here. That's just not his MO. So if he gets picked we have a fairly awkward situation for the GOP where the press is praising their VP for rising above the fray by refusing to dunk his old boss, which likely translates to gains for Clinton.

It's unlikely many moderates flip for the lower half of the ticket, and on Buchanan's best day he might be able to pull off 5% of the vote. In electoral college terms this translates as a landslide to Clinton.

Now if Clinton's not running due to maybe a different series of scandal-ridden events, Powell is off the hook and can say whatever he likes. But then under those circumstances the electoral calculus might favor a more base-pleasing Republican ticket.
 
It might make Powell the presumed nominee in 2000... which means President Colin Powell.

I just don't think Republicans are going to nominate for president someone who is pro-choice on abortion, pro-gun control, pro-affirmative action, and who describes himself as a "Rockefeller Republican."

If they thought nobody else could win, they just might swallow him if he indicated his views on abortion had "evolved." But polls in 1999 showed Bush well ahead of Gore: http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/03/05/president.2000/poll/ One poll showed Bush leading Gore by one point in New York state! https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=717
 
How much of the black vote does Dole get for having Powell on the ticket?

If you look at African American politicians running on a conservative slate of issues they tend to fail with African American voters. Since the vice president isn't likely to have much say on the platform, it's likely to stay conservative. So probably only marginally higher African American support than your standard conservative.
 
If you look at African American politicians running on a conservative slate of issues they tend to fail with African American voters. Since the vice president isn't likely to have much say on the platform, it's likely to stay conservative. So probably only marginally higher African American support than your standard conservative.

If the GOP gets 15% of the black vote and improves with moderate suburban voters, that'd be quite impactful.
 
If the GOP gets 15% of the black vote and improves with moderate suburban voters, that'd be quite impactful.

That would be just about the most I would expect. I was looking for stats on Michael Steele's run in 2006 for senate and didn't find anything. I have this memory of reading that he pulled about 12% of the black vote when in Maryland the GOP can usually expect 8-10%. Though at one point he was polling a lot better with African Americans (I want to say like 25% or 33% maybe), they ultimately didn't vote for him. But that's from something I read years ago so take it with all of the salt.

As for pulling moderate suburban voters, that would require a change of platform and vice presidents generally don't make that happen. Clinton's the moderate here.
 
How much of the black vote does Dole get for having Powell on the ticket?

Probably not much off Republican standard at all. Powell polled better with white voters than blacks as I recall - and that was in the hypothetical instance of him being the nominee, not the running mate. Palin and women voters in 2008 shows that the running mate clearly has very marginal impact.

Anyway Powell isn't going to run as running mate so this whole thread is epically moot. Not that I think it would change a hell of a lot even if he did, mind you.
 
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It might make Powell the presumed nominee in 2000... which means President Colin Powell.

Powell's wife suffers from depression and I doubt she handles the rigors of the campaign trail well let alone being in the WH or even the VP's Mansion.

Powell also said something to the effect once that he did not want to be America's first black president because he did not want to be a poster boy for the guilty white liberals.
 
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