Doggerland in the North Sea?

[The Professor]

I'll give you a butterfly net to a degree, say let the Romans arise normally and do their thing. After that though and Doggerland (surely its not just me som sniggers at that?) will defiantly be making up a intrical part of the history of northern Europe. It ceases to be the butterfly effect and more just blindingly obvious direct effects.


I'd imagine its being there helps tie northern europe far closer together.
Assuming the Romans follow a similar historical pattern and eventually collapse under migrations it and the other British Isles would form part of a uber Germanic culture. A sort of super-Scandinavia I guess - not that the Scandinavians conquer the 'English', just from the get go the two remain closer.

Hmmm...

A very simple overview could be:

by 300 BCE - settlement by Celts (most likely closely related to the Brythonic-Gaulish branch)
Early BCE - lightly settled by Romans around time of Roman Invasion of Britain
300s BCE - any Roman garrisons stripped of men to defend core territories > germanic settlements (predominantly Angles?)
After that it becomes a bit more hazy but the west is likely to become a kingdom related to Deira and Bernicia and hence affect Northumbrian development, while the east will attract Danish raids & settlements earlier than OTL.
And depending on its agricultural viability Doggerland could well be the centre of its own Alt-Dano-Northumbrian "Empire" ala Cnut....

 

[Bill Cameron]

Aleks,

I love geological PODs and the reason I love them is because they produce a "deep strangeness". They usually occur so far in the past that the changes that accrue will produce a world far different than the one we live in now.

Societies and cultures, and hence the history they create, do have a certain "inertia" to them, so you're not going to make major changes to either overnight. However, they have no where near the amount of inertia you believe them to have when you also factor in the time involved. Your suggested POD is set so far in the past - nearly three times older than the Pyramids - that the direct and follow-on changes will have a huge amount of time in which to work.

I'd suggest that major changes would begin very soon indeed. One poster brought up megalith building and very presciently I would say. Given it's position, proposed climate, geological makeup, and proximity to fish stocks Doggerland would undoubtedly be settled more thickly more sooner than "mainland" Britain.

This means our Stonehenge is unlikely to exist because the population required to need/build such a structure may not exist in sufficient quantities in that part of Britain during the megalith building era. There may very well be a henge constructed somewhere resembling it, but our Stonehenge and the events that somewhat preserved it until 2009 will not occur.

Further afield, will there still be a Mediterranean superpower? Most likely, but even if ruled by a city on the Tiber and even if called "Rome", it will not be our Rome.

Even further afield, the civilizations of Africa, Asia, and the Americas won't be immediately affected by Doggerland but once -or if - the European Age of Discovery kicks off, the deeply changed Europe of Doggerland will interact with those civilizations in different ways.

Insisting that the Butterfly Effect be observed is not "lazy" thinking, it is critical thinking instead, so your belief that WW2 would still occur, or even that something called WW2 would occur, is mind-boggling.

You've got to remember the time involved. You're talking about one hundred centuries here, nearly three hundred human generations. There's so much time involved that you simply cannot overstate the accrued changes.


Bill

 

[DValdron]

Hmmm. Would Stonehenge exist in a world with Doggerland?

The argument that the population to build Stonehenge wouldn't exist in sufficient quantity.

I'm not sure I buy that at all. Populations tend to expand to the limits of their socio-economic habitat and then tend to stabilize there. Assuming settlement in Doggerland, any effect on other regions population numbers is likely to be transient at best and barely relevant, or irrelevant in the wrong term.

The 'Butterfly' theory articulated here seems to suggest that any change will proliferate randomly and inescapably until the entire system is consumed.

Sorry, that's not the way it works. A butterfly flapping its wings in Japan might cause a hurricane in the caribbean, but it will not cause the Earth's atmosphere to fly off to Mars. Randomizing factors exist, but they exist in the context of rather more powerful stabilizing factors. Economics, geology, the biological limits and attributes of human beings, competing historical or population trends.

Not every butterfly produces a hurricane. Most butterflies don't. While a butterflies effects can be chaotic and unpredictable, they don't transcend the rules of physics. They do not, for instance, cause off season hurricanes. Hurricanes themselves may be random, but the conditions which produce them are very rigourous. We cannot predict a particular hurricane, but we know damned well when they're due.

Doggerland might well butterfly away Napoleon. Or maybe not. But the economic and social forces which produce the French Revolution, which produce the French Revolutionary armies, and which produce a cadre of brilliant generals, one of whom will take over, are still the likely outcomes.
Without Darwin, we would have still had the theory of evolution. Without Newton, we would have still had physics.

I'm not a fan of automatic uniform determinism. But at the same time, I don't think Butterfly cultism is the way to go. And frankly, it really does seem all to disruptive and cliquish to go booming down on the guy.

This is an alternate timeline forum, not a condescending wankers forum.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Hmmm. Would Stonehenge exist in a world with Doggerland? The argument that the population to build Stonehenge wouldn't exist in sufficient quantity. I'm not sure I buy that at all.

DValdron,

How about reading what I actually wrote?

There may very well be a henge constructed somewhere resembling it, but our Stonehenge and the events that somewhat preserved it until 2009 will not occur.

There could very well be a "stonehenge", there could very well be many other henges too, Doggerland and the maritime technology it spawns could lead to an expansion of megalith building societies greater than there was in the OTL.

What there won't be is our Stonehenge sitting on our Salisbury Plain and preserved in the same manner as has been the case in our timeline.

Doggerland might well butterfly away Napoleon.

Doggerland will butterfly away Napoleon. There could very well be a minor European military officer who takes advantage of an revolution in his country to seize power, kick off decades of wars, and establish an empire but saying he'll be Napoleon, he'll be from Corsica, he'll come to power in France, and all the rest is far too deterministic.

Without Darwin, we would have still had the theory of evolution. Without Newton, we would have still had physics.

Evolution and physics exist independently of human beings. We are not responsible for them, we did not invent them, we are only describing processes that existed billions of years before we existed and will exist for billions of years after we are gone.

I'm not a fan of automatic uniform determinism.

You're certainly arguing for it.

This is an alternate timeline forum, not a condescending wankers forum.

And it's been a pleasure to meet you too.


Bill

 

[Stephen]

Ignoring the butterflies I think the OP's asumption that it will be conquered by the Romans is false. Doggerland is north of Germany and area which is coloser to Rome and never properly Romanised. More likely this would give the Romans a larger population of sea bound barbarians to deal with making any hold on Britain or Gaul that much more tenuous.

 

[DValdron]

How about reading what I actually wrote?

Well, I see someone's been eating his wheaties.

There may very well be a henge constructed somewhere resembling it, but our Stonehenge and the events that somewhat preserved it until 2009 will not occur.

Bull. I know that it's a hypothetical example, but you're vastly overstating your case.

There could very well be a "stonehenge", there could very well be many other henges too, Doggerland and the maritime technology it spawns could lead to an expansion of megalith building societies greater than there was in the OTL.

Because maritime technology so powerfully and inevitably leads to Megalith building, thus explaining the great Viking Pyramids?

Ah, before you get all hot under the collar, relax, I'm just having a bit of fun wit youse. You know the old saying "It's all fun and games when someone loses an eye."

Within the limits of your example, your argument has some resemblance to soundness. It's possible that Doogerland would have repercussions producing no Stonehenge. It's possible that Doggerland would have repercussions producing a bigger Stonehenge. Or a later Stonehenge. Or an earlier Stonehenge.

Or its possible that it wouldn't affect Stonehenge at all, that Doggerland's variable would not be significant compared to the sequence and collection of variables that produce Stonehenge.

Now, it might be that you'll say, even if its the same time, the same place, the same size, the same builders, yadda yadda yadda, but its not really the same henge... I'd just say your mingeing.

What there won't be is our Stonehenge sitting on our Salisbury Plain and preserved in the same manner as has been the case in our timeline.

Mingeing big time.

Doggerland will butterfly away Napoleon. There could very well be a minor European military officer who takes advantage of an revolution in his country to seize power, kick off decades of wars, and establish an empire but saying he'll be Napoleon, he'll be from Corsica, he'll come to power in France, and all the rest is far too deterministic.

Hmmm. No, the revolution will be in France, because that's the place that a confluence of factors will place it. The borders of France might be a bit messier. Might happen a few years earlier or later. May or may not be a corsican, but it will likely be a provincial. He may or may not be Napolean, per se, but he'll be a Napolean analogue in some sufficient respect. There's a niche waiting to be filled, someone will fill it.

Y'see, your mistake, laddy, apart from being a minger, is that you have this idea that every single butterfly produces a hurricane. That just ain't the case.

Evolution and physics exist independently of human beings. We are not responsible for them, we did not invent them, we are only describing processes that existed billions of years before we existed and will exist for billions of years after we are gone.

Yep, but we are subject to them, and we play by these rules. There are all sorts of constraints and drivers.

You're certainly arguing for it.

Nope. I'm arguing for something in between. Absolute determinism is as silly as unhinged butterly worship. Don't be mad at me because I won't play your reindeer games.

And it's been a pleasure to meet you too.

Gee Bill, are we flaming each other? What a waste of time and space. I bear you no particular ill will, and this pint that we are antagonagreeing perhance is trivial in the larger scheme of things. So take no offence, my friend, and should you take offence, then I bid you accept my apology.

I find it kind of ironic. Aleks here posts what seems to be an interesting idea, and one that might be explored in different directions. But all he gets is a bunch of mockingbirds attacking him. Hey, what a way to make a guy feel welcome. What a constructive approach. Doesn't shitting on your fellow human beings and making fun of them with cute pictures really ennoble the whole process. But I suppose that some people are so much better and cooler than other people that its perfectly fine.

Anyway, life is too short, and so's your mother (not to worry, just a little nort shore humour there, lad, no harm meant. ) I'll absent myself from this little toaster, as I've got other things that seem like more fun. Feel free to insult me in my absence, and by all means, hold court.

All the best.

Den Valdron

 

[DValdron]

Ignoring the butterflies I think the OP's asumption that it will be conquered by the Romans is false. Doggerland is north of Germany and area which is coloser to Rome and never properly Romanised. More likely this would give the Romans a larger population of sea bound barbarians to deal with making any hold on Britain or Gaul that much more tenuous.

That's kind of interesting. It seems to me that England was accessible from Gaul, which was a relatively core Roman area. But Doggerland wouldn't be accessible from Gaul, but only through relatively ambitious sea voyages from the coast, or by leapfrogging from England. But England was the limit of Roman expansion... they built a big wall to keep from having to deal with Scots (most sensible when you think about it), and they didn't give Ireland much guff either. So I'm not sure about the Roman motivation to conquer Doggerland.

On the other side of the coin, just because Doggerland is settled and unconquered, I don't see a lot of extreme motivation for the Doggyfolk to go sea raiding. Their Island is healthy, but not that huge. Out there, they'd be insulated from a lot of the big population movements.

I'd say null impact one way or the other in the Roman and early post-Roman era.

 

[Bill Cameron]

No, the revolution will be in France, because that's the place that a confluence of factors will place it. The borders of France might be a bit messier. Might happen a few years earlier or later. May or may not be a corsican, but it will likely be a provincial. He may or may not be Napolean, per se, but he'll be a Napolean analogue in some sufficient respect. There's a niche waiting to be filled, someone will fill it.

DValdron,

The revolution in France and the factors leading to it are wholly human in nature. Therefore they'll be greatly effected by a POD 10,000 years in the past.

By the time what we count as being 1789 arrives in this timeline, there will be a polity in the area we know as France and, as you note, it's borders will be somewhat different. It may even be part of a larger polity. All the other factors that led to the revolution, the human derived factors, will be wholly different. There may be no monarchy, no crippling debt, no creaking machinery of government, no dashed expectations, none of it.

If by coincidence this timeline sees a revolution in 1789 in the region we know as France, it will be only a coincidence and not some form of "congruent history".

...is that you have this idea that every single butterfly produces a hurricane. That just ain't the case.

That's true, not every butterfly produces a hurricane. One hundred centuries of butterflies will produce more than enough hurricanes however.


Bill

 

[DValdron]

Mingeing. And not terribly well, either.

 

[DuQuense]

Given it's location and probable elevation. I believe it will be a lot like the Frisian Coast, and probably part of the Frisian Commonality.
As sometime around 500~250 BC the Frisians will take over the Island.
This may be enuff to allow contact between the Frisians and the Celts, allowing some Celtic influence.

As the Romans [ie med empire] Moves north in Europe & takes over the Frisian Coast, they will be pulled across to Dogger Island.
Dogger is small enuff and Homogeneous enuff that they take the whole Island, and impose their culture.

Dispute the Roman Roads and Canals, It will be a poor Area with few Natural resources. It will be know for it's Fish, and Maybe Sheep.

The Volkwandertang will still take place, as it was climate driven and Human influence at this time is not enuff to affect Climate.

One of the Germanic tribes will achieve Maritime Superiority aka Saxons, and move into both Dogger and England.

Due to it's Bogs,Marches and small Estuaries, it remains a lot like the Frisian coast, and will develop along with the coast. By 12~1300, it is considered part of the Lowlands.

While a "England", or A "France", may occupy it for several Years here and there -- As a "Holland" coalesces along the coast, Dogger is considered part of the Nation.

Given a 20th Century Great European War, involving a Central Europe "Germany" any attempt to Invade "Holland" Leads to a retreat to Dogger,
and a call for their Allies Help in preventing any Invasion of the Island.

 

[Advernt]

I think a useful concept melding the butterfly effect and Historical Forces together would be the analogue. For example , let's say that Prussia lost the Seven Weeks War against Austrian in 1866, because of a small change in the course of this battle:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Königgrätz . German unification is hence derailed , and Prussia's dominion might extend , at maximum to only Northern Germany , while Austria exerts much influence over the South. Without the ensuring Franco-Prussian War, and German Unification , European dynamics would be quite different , yet slightly similar. Will there be a general European WWI analogue in this scenario? Highly likely , given that there were other forces at play, but the participants and alliances would have been different , the causes would have been different , and hence the outcome would have been unrecognizably different. This is turn creates new historical forces that alters history , to the point that what follows differs quite dramatically in details , and hence slightly in terms of trends.

But every time historical trends alter slightly, it breeds even more deviation from the original trend.

Also , the difference between trends and details have to be distinguished. Let's say that Napoleon falls of a horse and breaks his neck in a freak accident in 1795 . Even with his death , the general historical trend of the French Revolutionary Wars would have continued, but the people leading it , and hence it's outcome would have been slightly altered in the least extreme case. It might even be wildly different. The trend still exist , but the details differ, and hence the outcome of these historical forces/trends would be slightly different , hence altering the composition of subsequent historical forces.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I have been assuming, as Nik says, that Doggerland is a low-lying zone, with maybe a few mounds but no real hills. Its only real source of productivity in early times lies with its fishing fleet - but a note about that. A big island stuck where it is would disrupt OTL fish stocks. Dogger Bank is famous for being well-stocked, but there's now a big island sitting there. No doubt the North Sea is still a good place to fish, but Doggerland probably has no intrinsic advantage over adjacent areas.

Another thing to note is that the Saxon migrations were to a large degree forced by the loss of productive coastal lowlands. I imagine this problem would affect Doggerland as much as it did Frisia etc. Thus whilst no doubt some off-shoot of the Anglo-Saxons does over-run Doggerland, its probably not going to last long as an independent kingdom, and its historical existence as one will be as hazy as probably Lindsey, certainly no more than as a remoter East Anglia.

It certainly would feature in the first run of Viking invasions, but there's not a great deal there for them. It has uses as a staging post, and Guthrum et al probably completely over-run it and colonise it. In the later Anglo-Saxon reconquest, it perhaps exists as a sort of lesser Jorvik, surviving with its Danish culture for as long as it does due to its remoteness, but eventually falling to Edgar, at the latest.

Under Canute it has a more central importance since it would be in the middle of his Anglo-Danish kingdom. Its actual importance probably is not increased due to this, but its prominence would be. And in the ensuing power struggles, its position midway make it as I said earlier an ideal candidate for a stepping stone from Denmark, leading I would imagine to many decades of close conflict.

I saw this coming to a head after 1066. In that year whilst it could provide Hardrada and Tostig with a staging ground, its not particuarly important in itself. Harold can still defeat them when they land in England, as they must do to make a meaningful challenge for the crown, and then march South and be defeated by William. The Normans probably have to expend greater resources subjugating Doggerland, and perhaps this has an effect on lessening their initial presence in Ireland, or in the North, and maybe we see Edgar aetheling make a go of a breakaway Northumbria for a while.

But the Danes are still coming back. I think its 1086 (am doing all this from memory) when they land in Lincolnshire. Now, with Doggerland as a staging ground, they can mass there and then land and support their landing. The eventual retreat, bought off by William, is less certain, and the Normans probably have to expend a great deal more effort in defeating them, then in defeating any breakway Anglo-Saxons in the North, etc

I mentioned as a throw-away line that maybe Robert Guiscard ends up renowned as the man who reconquers Doggerland from the Danes. Exact personalities are not really the issue, but the forces of history have been nudged. Something has to give - it could be the Normans in France, it could be the roving warbands in Sicily and S Italy, or it could be the First Crusade. Or it could be a combination of them, meaning that all of these aspects still do occur, but to a lesser extent. Perhaps the Normans take Sicily, but the Lombards remain in control of S Italy. Perhaps the First Crusade thus sees a smaller Norman contingent, but perhaps a Lombard one partly in its stead

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[ninebucks]

Having such a large island could possibly retard Norse maritime technology. The North Sea is one of the most tempermental seas on the planet, and for the Norsemen to cross it, (which they did, regularly), they needed superior ships.

But if there is an island slap bang in the middle of it, the seas would be calmed. Norsemen would have less of a distance to travel, and could instead island-hop to the British Isles. The demands on their naval technology would be less severe. Without those severe demands, its unlikely their ships would be as good as OTL, which would have consequences on how successful their raids are.

The prospects for the Norse crossing the Atlantic are bleak.

 

[Deleted member 5719]

Mingeing. And not terribly well, either.

DValdron, I strongly suggest you listen to Bill. Everything he says is 100% correct. He has also done you a huge favour by not reporting your post in which you called him a wanker, you would have been kicked for a week. Abusive posting is frowned upon, especially when the person you abuse is giving reasoned argument and you are responding with nonsense.

If there was an inhabitable island in the middle of the north sea, ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY would be completely different, not only would all the ethnicities and polities of Europe never have arisen, but the tribal groupings of aboriginal Australia would have evolved differently. The weather would have been different, meaning people would have sex at different times, so different individuals with different personalities would be born. People would die of diseases who would have lived, different accidents would happen, different people would die of hunger. All this would happen within 50 years of your point of departure in 10000 BC.

The indo-european language (and all world language groups) would never have existed, or at least would be completely different, meaning, as language is the vehicle of culture, NONE of the historic cultures of Europe would have existed.

Doggerland is an opportunity to write an amazing alternate history, but it would be the history of a completely different planet, literally anything goes.

Exit Napoleon, pursued by a butterfly.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Yes, but saying EVERYTHING will be different makes the whole exercise absolutely meaningless, which is...well, pointless

Have you ever read Rick Robinson's "Tarrantry" stories ? They're a great read, with great alternate history, but they work on the "running alongside" principle

Besides, another lesson I learnt from Rick is that if you take it down to PROBABILITIES nothing is anymore probable than anything else. Sure you can bastardise the argument by saying that out of all possible worlds ours is only a 1-in-a-million outcome...but so are ANY OTHER SPECIFIC OUTCOMES ! So, why NOT have the 1-in-a-million outcome we know as the background, because that makes discussing alternate history INTERESTING

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Deleted member 5719]

Yes, but saying EVERYTHING will be different makes the whole exercise absolutely meaningless, which is...well, pointless

Have you ever read Rick Robinson's "Tarrantry" stories ? They're a great read, with great alternate history, but they work on the "running alongside" principle

Besides, another lesson I learnt from Rick is that if you take it down to PROBABILITIES nothing is anymore probable than anything else. Sure you can bastardise the argument by saying that out of all possible worlds ours is only a 1-in-a-million outcome...but so are ANY OTHER SPECIFIC OUTCOMES ! So, why NOT have the 1-in-a-million outcome we know as the background, because that makes discussing alternate history INTERESTING

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I agree that you can have parallels, but I balk at having Knud Sigvaldson leading the Catholic Socialist Dogger Resistence to Heydrich's Nazi occupation force.

I personally think that deep time POD's that lead to a single recognisable OTL ethnicity evolving are ASB.

Best Regards

BNS

 

[ninebucks]

I don't think its pointless to make alternate histories where everything is different, but is, and should be, very different from making alternate histories with later PODs.

With geological PODs, you are essentially writing the history of an alien civilisation. The biological nature of the human species will remain the same, and so to will histories general themes, (class conflict, ethnic conflict, gender conflict, etc.), but everything else will be different, (languages, cultures, the whole shebang). That's not to say its pointless, but I think it is safe to say that such a history would fall outside the genre that this website caters for.

 

[Tyr]

Yes, but saying EVERYTHING will be different makes the whole exercise absolutely meaningless, which is...well, pointless

f

How do you think its pointless? Its the entire point.

 

[Grey Wolf]

How do you think its pointless? Its the entire point.

But there's nothing to DISCUSS if we say "All human history is changed"

What's there to talk about then ?

The point of a discussion thread is to come up with ideas and scenarios. Otherwise what's it here for ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Falastur]

If there was an inhabitable island in the middle of the north sea, ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY would be completely different, not only would all the ethnicities and polities of Europe never have arisen, but the tribal groupings of aboriginal Australia would have evolved differently. The weather would have been different, meaning people would have sex at different times, so different individuals with different personalities would be born. People would die of diseases who would have lived, different accidents would happen, different people would die of hunger. All this would happen within 50 years of your point of departure in 10000 BC.

Oh grief. I'm going to shoot myself. It's not worth going on any more.

Aside from the fact that this is not AlternateGeography.com, and I think we have a right to study the history over the geographical issues, I think you grossly are overestimating the significance of this. All life changed within 50 years? Please! Why would the weather be different? I mean heck, if you'd interrupted the Gulf Stream or interrupted the Cross-Pacific currents then maybe. But Gulf Stream > North Sea flow. The difference on the Gulf Stream would be negligible, and that means the difference to the Cross-Pacific currents would be essentially nothing whatsoever. The weather would not change.

And I have to reiterate what others have said. What even is the point of studying Alt History if people are going to come along and insist that no event will even possibly mimic real life as of one nanosecond after POD? I might as well just delete my account here and leave. And if that's the case, then why don't you all too?