Does the Russian revolution still happen if Russia won the Russo-Japanese war
- Thread starter peanutman95
- Start date
Some kind of revolution still happens, but probably the kind that sees the Tsar and his family survive as he lets his brother Grand Duke Michael preside over the transition to constitutional monarchy.
Aphrodite
Banned
Depends. First, Nicholas is stubborn on some issues- Jews for example. The 1905 rebellion is disproportionately Jewish.
Only 5% of the Empire was Jewish but 40% of those arrested were Jewish. The violence is also concentrated in areas with large Jewish populations- Odessa, Poland and the Baltics for example
Other ethnic minorities also revolted against the Russification policies of Alexander and Nicholas
Some of this would be blaming the Jews but it is a significant factor
On the other hand, Nicholas realized the need for reform and was distancing himself from some of the worst failures of his father. The sacking of Witte is the clearest sign o major changes coming
In a quick, decisive victory where Russia collects a large indemnity and is flush with cash, Nicholas should be able to weather the storm
Only 5% of the Empire was Jewish but 40% of those arrested were Jewish. The violence is also concentrated in areas with large Jewish populations- Odessa, Poland and the Baltics for example
Other ethnic minorities also revolted against the Russification policies of Alexander and Nicholas
Some of this would be blaming the Jews but it is a significant factor
On the other hand, Nicholas realized the need for reform and was distancing himself from some of the worst failures of his father. The sacking of Witte is the clearest sign o major changes coming
In a quick, decisive victory where Russia collects a large indemnity and is flush with cash, Nicholas should be able to weather the storm
There is a timeline here (can't remember the name) where Japan loses and after an alt ww1 goes communist and Russia expansionist imperialist.
But if Russia wins, it's probably better for Russia because it will allow old Nicky to gain a sort of prestige for the Empire. That alone might butterfly the 1905 revolution
But if Russia wins, it's probably better for Russia because it will allow old Nicky to gain a sort of prestige for the Empire. That alone might butterfly the 1905 revolution
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Then yes, the Revolution of 1905 still happens if that's what you're talking about. Getting that kind of victory means you'd still have to fight a long, feirce struggle with Japan and move no small number of men to the East (If anything, you'd need more and they'd need to stay their longer,especially to establish a new colonial administration in Korea). The situation and factors that resulted in the Revolution had been bubbling for quite some time now, and social unrest was spreading even as the war was raging. Nicky still wouldn't have the bayonets needed to picket his throne without some kind of concession.
An idea that Russian Revolution of 1905 was a predominantly "Jewish affair" is a complete nonsense. There were armed rebellions in Moscow and St-Petersburg and the industrial workers were predominantly not Jewish. There were country-wide strikes and the local strikes in the areas with no noticeable Jewish population like Ivanovo-Voznesensk textile center where more than 70,000 workers had been on strike for more than 2 months. There was Armenian-Azeri fighting in 1905 - 06. While there was a considerable Jewish population in Poland this does not mean that a general strike of 12—14 January in Warsaw and Riga was exclusively or predominantly Jewish. The same goes for the political strikes of the students which were happening all over Russian empire. The Russian peasants were definitely not Jewish. Latvian "Forest Brothers" were ... Latvians. PPS was Polish. Rebelling industrial workers of Lodz (a heavily Jewish area) were Poles, Jews and Germans. The sailors revolting on the battleship "Potemkin" were not Jews even if the ship was in the port of Odessa. The troops revolting at the end of the RJW also were not predominantly Jewish, etc.
Of course, there were numerous Jews in the prominent positions in various revolutionary and terrorist organizations which probably relevant to the number of the arrested people (BTW, percentage is rather meaningless without a total).
Sacking the most competent person of his reign (prior to Stolypin) as a sign of a positive change is an interesting idea but, actually, Witte was de facto sacked (kicked upstairs into a purely ceremonial position) before the RJW. Not sure which "failures" of Alexander III you are talking about (not doing something is hardly a "failure" if it is a part of a consistent policy): during his reign Russian economy was booming, the empire was in peace and stand away from the risky adventures which resulted in the RJW. Russian army finally (the 1st time since 1700) got convenient uniforms which were close to a national costume and survived with the minimal modifications all the way to the end of the SU.
Look at it from a different perspective. Loss in the RJW resulted in the major reforms in the Russian army. Among other things between 60 and 80% of the old high-ranking officers and generals had been sacked and replaced with the younger generation more open to the innovations. The same goes for the identified problems with the tactics, field fortifications, artillery, uniforms (IIRC, khaki color was introduced only after the war). Finally, position of the general-admiral (overseeing all naval programs, personnel, etc.) routinely held by the Emperor's relatives (brother, uncle) was abolished with a resulting cut on the endemic corruption and incompetence and Russia launched its own dreadnought program.
With a fast and impressive victory over Japan the existing problems would remain in place all the way to 1914 and successful expansionism meant extensive rather than intensive development of the Russian economy. Anyway, as a part of the pre-war expansionist policies the railroads across China and Korea had been built at the expense of the Transiberian Railroad which was not completed until 1916.
Aphrodite
Banned
You can call it complete nonsense but the arrest, violence and unrest support it. A large amount of the violence is related to Jewish issues. That's not to say the violence comes from the Jews as they were often the victims
As I noted, 40% of those condemned by the tribunals were Jewish leaving 60% who were not. Personally I was shocked when I stumbled on that but it is true. It also makes sense given the policies of Alexander and Nicholas. Jews made up about 5% of the population so why is it hard to believe that given the oppression they suffered they would be 8 times more likely to participate?
Sure there are other issues driving it: the economic downturn from 1898 and the lack of support for agriculture
These issues were quickly dealt with. However Russia's political institutions, it's hard to see a drive for democracy inspiring anyone
Edited to add: I said disproportionately not predominantly. The words mean much different things
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You are confusing apples and oranges. The anti-semitic violence like the pogroms is a fact but it also the fact that the Revolution of 1905 had a very broad base which was going well beyond the Russian Jews. The military tribunals were dealing mostly with the exceptional cases like assassinations of the state officials and in this category a number of Jews was disproportionally high because they were "pushed into the revolution" by Tsarist oppression. But, as I said, the percentage is meaningless unless you are providing the totals and comparing these totals to the number of people participating in the whole event. BTW, the terrorist activities had been going on before and after 1905.
Why do you think that "a drive for democracy" is the only possible way of development which should be uniform for all cultures?
I didn't say I wrote the timeline (though I thought it was pretty good). Russia is going to be screwed in ww1 even more, I agree with that. But a victory in war could gain some prestige for Tsar Nickolas II
do you think that a Russian civil war would happen sooner during ww1 because of the outdated equipment?
Aphrodite
Banned
Not at all. The violence is sporadic, disorganized and lacked focus There is simply much discontent among Russian Jews and they are very disproportionately represented among the people condemned
Again, I said disproportionately why you changed that to predominately I have no idea
No idea about the period or anything, but could it have been they got arrested not because they were prominent leaders of the revolution but because they were Jewish and it was a good occasion as any to round them up?
It would make sense they'd be scapegoated, no?
I will make a categorical assertion here (Which I typically do not like to do). If the Russians win the Russo-Japanese war (defined as capturing some land and preserving the fleet) there would definitely not be a Russian Revolution that bore any resemblance to the Russian Revolution IOTL. The loss of the Russo-Japanese war was a key cause for both Russia's behavior and German behavior in 1914. Specifically Russia felt that it had to support Serbia to show that it was still a first rate power. By contrast, Germany felt that Russia was still weak but would not be weak for much longer. With a win, Russia will feel strong and the Germans will think they are strong. Therefore, there will be no blank check to Austria and no WWI. Without WWI there will not be a Russian Revolution with characteristics remotely similar to the one that occurred IOTL.
Russia was a growing and rapidly industrializing nation during the last two Tsar’s reign. Growth bring forth new changes and instability. It’s those changes, not just defeat in the east, that brought forth the revolution.
For instance, Stalin’s father was a well-off shoemaker, until the new shoe factories put him out of work. Would Stalin have a better outlook on Tsar’s government had this not happened?
For instance, Stalin’s father was a well-off shoemaker, until the new shoe factories put him out of work. Would Stalin have a better outlook on Tsar’s government had this not happened?