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Assuming that Roosevelt's ego doesn't get the better of him (an ASB event, to be sure ) and he doesn't run for the Presidency in 1912 after losing at the Republican Convention, or simply that he decides to sit the Presidential Election out altogether (maybe no Pinchot-Ballinger controversy), does Taft win re-election?
I realize that in the 1910s the deck is stack massively against the Democrats--they've only won two elections (three if we count Tilden being robbed of the White House in 1876) since the Civil War and have a weak political position, but is it possible that Wilson still might be able to topple Taft in 1912 without Roosevelt's aid (the Democrats did take control of the House in 1910, after all)? Or do the Democrats go for the more conservative pick without Roosevelt running and choose Clark, thus enabling an easy victory for Taft? Does Taft even run in 1912 if Roosevelt doesn't enter the fray?