Does Taft win in 1912 if Roosevelt sits out?

Probably most would (TR's voters were basically Progressive Republicans) but either man would need well over 90% of the combined Taft/TR vote, or else crucial states like NY and Ohio, where the combined vote exceeded the Wilson vote by only seven or eight percentage points, would start to fall away. Combined with the South and Border states, that would give Wilson a majority.

I actually don't think it's safe to say that most would. By this point, Pinchot/Ballinger and the House revolt have already occurred, and the progressives are in full rebellion against Taft and the regular Republicans. Without TR, many, perhaps most, would have found some other outlet, whether it's the Dem nominee, La Follette as some have suggested or another third-party nominee (maybe even Debs), or sat on their hands.
 
How appealing would Eugene Debs be to Theodore Roosevelt's supporters? The national votes seem to show, especially in Oklahoma, that most of Deb's support seemingly came from the Republican Party.

This could be a misinterpretation though.
 
How appealing would Eugene Debs be to Theodore Roosevelt's supporters? The national votes seem to show, especially in Oklahoma, that most of Deb's support seemingly came from the Republican Party.

This could be a misinterpretation though.

There really wasn't a left-right partisan divide then. It's not a question of whether you're a Republican or Democrat, but how left you were and how disaffected you were from the major parties.
 
Top