I've been watching "The Gilded Age" from PBS. It says there was a Civil War-era law allowing private loans to USG without Congress' okay, which J. P. Morgan used in 1895 to prevent USG default in the 1893 Panic.
So, the question: if the Civil War never happens, does this law never get passed? Does this lead to default & economic ruin in 1895? Or do the conditions resulting from no Civil War mean the Panic never happens?
I don't care how the Civil War is prevented; handwave it any way you want, providing it doesn't so transform the U.S. as to make the question irrelevant...