Does Muammar Gaddafi still give up his WMDs and nuclear weapons program without 9/11?

If 9/11 and the resulting Afghanistan War and Iraq War do not occur, then does Libyan leader (well, dictator) Muammar Gaddafi still give up both his WMDs and his nuclear weapons program?

Any thoughts on this? Also, though, if not, then what exactly happens afterwards?
 
I believe that Siaf Al Islam wanted to end Libyas isolation, and open it up, under Qaddafi control, to Western investment, with Siaf either functioning as leader or business leader. To do this the weapons program had to be given up, but only if there was a relaxation in U.S./Western hostility, and investment could be promoted.
Then it all started to unravel when the revolt started, the Qaddafis took violent measures to maintain their rule, and the Western Europeans and Americans gratefully took advantage of this, to oppose a Government, that they never wanted to support in the first place.
 
I believe that Siaf Al Islam wanted to end Libyas isolation, and open it up, under Qaddafi control, to Western investment, with Siaf either functioning as leader or business leader. To do this the weapons program had to be given up, but only if there was a relaxation in U.S./Western hostility, and investment could be promoted.
Then it all started to unravel when the revolt started, the Qaddafis took violent measures to maintain their rule, and the Western Europeans and Americans gratefully took advantage of this, to oppose a Government, that they never wanted to support in the first place.
Did Saif Al-Islam already have this view before 9/11, though?
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Honestly, I think what happened to Saddam scared the fuck out of Gaddafi. I think he would keep the program alive without the War on Terror.

One thing to note, however. He was vociferously anti-Israel in a way that most Arab countries by 2001 were not anymore, refusing to sign the Arab Peace Initiative because it offered recognition of Israel rather than the promise of utter annihilation, and his nuclear program, had it advanced further, would have been targeted by the Israelis. And unlike the Iranians, it'd be a lot harder to protect it from them.

I don't think he gets a nuke without triggering outside intervention.
 
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Honestly, I think what happened to Saddam scared the fuck out of Gaddafi. I think he would keep the program alive without the War on Terror.

Maybe ... maybe. After all, based on my research on this, Gaddafi sought a rapprochement with the West ever since the 1990s (while simultaneously building nuclear weapons as a back-up option just in case rapprochement with the West does not work out) but only accelerated his pursuit of rapprochement with the West after 9/11 (which culminated in Gaddafi's renunciation of both all of his WMDs and his nuclear weapons program a little over two years after 9/11).

One thing to note, however. He was vociferously anti-Israel in a way that most Arab countries by 2001 were not anymore, refusing to sign the Arab Peace Initiative because it offered recognition of Israel rather than the promise of utter annihilation,

Do you have a source for this, please?

and his nuclear program, had it advanced further, would have been targeted by the Israelis. And unlike the Iranians, it'd be a lot harder to protect it from them.

I don't think he gets a nuke without triggering outside intervention.

Did Israel actually have the necessary logistics to successfully strike all or at least most of Libya's nuclear sites, though?
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Do you have a source for this, please?



Did Israel actually have the necessary logistics to successfully strike all or at least most of Libya's nuclear sites, though?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3645612,00.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1852955.stm

http://www.timesofmalta.com/article...leaders-to-remind-israel-of-peace-offer.95575

This talks about Gaddafi asking for it to be revoked in 2008 and showing a lot of anger at other Arab leaders, as well as when the Arab Peace Plan was being in developed, with his opposition notable. The other link references his one state solution proposal which basically dismantles Israel and its defense capabilities and creates a single state that also allows for the complete return of Palestinians.

As for their capabilities, that is a good question. I am sure that if they were above ground, they could have been destroyed by aerial attack. The threat of sabotage and attacks on scientists are also possible. If they were solidly protected underground facilities, they might invoke US aid with trying to get a bunker buster.
 
Gaddafi was not really going to go very far with nukes without major outside involvement. Unlike Iran he simply did not have the local talent to build a nuclear program. On the other hand chemical weapons he did have, and with a significant petrochemical infrastructure much easier to get without outside involvement. If there was no 9/11 and no curbstomp of Saddam I don't think Libya stops going for whatever WMD he could get.

The Israelis could hit Libya quite easily. They had mid-air refueling capability which could be done over the Med well away from Libyan radar and the odds of the Libyans actually being able to attack refuelers over the med is about zero. While the other Arabs will huff and puff, nothing will happen and the Egyptians will secretly be pl;eased.
 
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http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3645612,00.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1852955.stm

http://www.timesofmalta.com/article...leaders-to-remind-israel-of-peace-offer.95575

This talks about Gaddafi asking for it to be revoked in 2008 and showing a lot of anger at other Arab leaders, as well as when the Arab Peace Plan was being in developed, with his opposition notable. The other link references his one state solution proposal which basically dismantles Israel and its defense capabilities and creates a single state that also allows for the complete return of Palestinians.

Thanks for sharing all of this information and these links with us!

As for their capabilities, that is a good question. I am sure that if they were above ground, they could have been destroyed by aerial attack.

Did Israel actually have the necessary logistics to do this, though?

The threat of sabotage and attacks on scientists are also possible.

Agreed.

If they were solidly protected underground facilities, they might invoke US aid with trying to get a bunker buster.

Would the U.S. actually be willing to provide Israel with a bunker buster, though?
 
Even if Gaddafi had complete blueprints for a fission weapon, and details of the processes needed to produce the fissile materiel and so forth, you need to build the enrichment infrastructure, and then take the uranium ore through the enrichment process. This requires a significant technically qualified staff to do all of this, not just the scientists but the welders with skills to put together all the complex machinery of the bomb factory and many other examples of "blue collar" but highly skilled folks. Additionally Libya will have to import essentially all components or materials - maraging steel, all of the electronics/switches and so forth as they have no local manufacturing capability for any of this. In 1990 the population of Libya was roughly 4.3 million, of which slightly over 50% were ages 15-64 (workers of any sort). In Libya, women with university education in the sciences or skilled blue collar abilities/jobs were essentially between few and none. This gives you a population of roughly 1.2 million males between 15-64 to draw from. When you look at the reality that there were not enough Libyans to provide skilled labor at all levels for the oil industry and there was significant reliance on foreign labor...

The peak employment in the Manhattan Project was ~125,000. Assuming only 25-30% of that number would be needed to construct and run a Libyan program given the designs already present and no duplication that means roughly 40,000 so employed (and you need for more skilled workers due to people quitting, getting sick/dying, retiring, etc). Maybe just maybe if you shut down everything else that required folks with these skills in Libya you could find this many...maybe. Bringing in this number of foreigners with these skills would be the same as daily broadcasts saying "we're building bombs, we're building bombs". A reaction from one of several quarters will then occur.
 
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