alternatehistory.com

So when it comes to this particular question, it seems to be that people's answers are very similar to the questions about Southern victory during the American Civil War. Most people automatically assume that Japanese defeat is inevitable and that the US has too many people, too much industry and that the Japanese cannot win what so ever. Is this really true?

Personally I think they have a chance at winning (a small one, yet a chance none the less). When I mean victory, I mean not total victory but instead Japan surviving the Allied onslaught and managing to hold onto key territories conquered before 1942.

For this to occur, it would probably require at least several pods to occur. Below is a hypothetical situation where I could see Japan achieving a victory that I described:

- Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor results in more American casualties and ships sunk than in otl. This would weaken the US in early part of Pacific War and buy Japan some time.
- Complete Japanese victory at Midway. Would severely weaken the US during the early part of the Pacific War and buy the Japanese some time.
- Japanese occupy Port Moresby and completely conquer the entire island of Papua New Guinea. This would allow Japan to launch airstrikes against Australia.
- China is defeated (how, i don't know, maybe Chiang Kai-Shek dies and the KMT fractures to the point of becoming useless against Japan). If this somehow occurs, hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops gets freed up to fight in the Pacific.
- Japan uses mustard gas in its island defense strategy. Mustard gas attacks the skin, so gas masks wouldn't help American troops. Japanese troops in bunkers would be hard to kill with gas if America uses gas as well. This would slow down the American advance significantly and cause more casualties.
- Germans defeat the Soviet Union and fight the allies to a stalemate in Europe.

Eventually, American casualties would be so high and the war would last so long that peace is made in 1947 due to war wariness.
Top