Does Hillary Clinton Win in 2008 Without the Iraq War?

CaliGuy

Banned
Eh, Saddam in 1998 fully expected the bombing campaign to last months when he committed to violating the terms of the caese fire... I don't see 2002 or 2003 being different.

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We had a similar bombing campaign against him in 2001.

Now Saddam himself being killed in an air strike and a struggle for power where some tough general, but not balls out evil like Ali al-Majid or Saddam's sons takes power and changes course with the US then Bush wins in 2004 and certainly opens the door for Hillary, but others could still win as well the primary.

Could Obama still win? Yah. Much of public disliked Hillary's personality and that was her biggest problem over the years on the campaign trail not policy.
Question--wouldn't Qusay take over if Saddam was killed? After all, didn't you say that the Iraqi military was as coup-proof as the 1930s Soviet military was?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, in regards to Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance was rapidly weakening after Massoud's assassination; thus, one could argue that we had to militarily intervene quickly in order to prevent the implosion of the Northern Alliance as well as to avoid looking bad as a result of this implosion! :(
 
Having Massoud survive, while helpful, might not be the game-changer that you think it is; after all, the large issues of Afghan warlords and corruption would have still had to be dealt with! :(

It's not like it would have fixed all of Afghanistan's problems but it would have made at least some of them better. Massoud seems to have been a genuine liberal who had real support across ethnic lines. He also ran a pretty effective military and civil service organization; his home area of Afghanistan is probably the least screwed up part IOTL. I think he could have at least modernized the north and driven the Taliban out of it; with him in charge of Afghanistan the idea of the Taliban IATL 2017 threatening Kunduz and such would have been absurd. The question is what happens in the South. Massoud was a Tajik, so him being President would have given the Taliban the ethnic nationalism card to play and the Pashtuns might have really thrown in whole hog with them.

For maximum dumpster fire points have Massoud end up in charge, Pakistan and the Pashtuns react harshly and begin supporting the Taliban really hard (like with MANPADS and stuff), Massoud start turning to India for help along with the U.S. (Pakistan's worst nightmare), and go from there.
 
Question--wouldn't Qusay take over if Saddam was killed? After all, didn't you say that the Iraqi military was as coup-proof as the 1930s Soviet military was?

I'm pretty sure al-Douri would have been the winner in the power struggle that would have ensued if Saddam died. He wielded enormous influence in Iraq and everybody knew Saddam's kids were nuts.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It's not like it would have fixed all of Afghanistan's problems but it would have made at least some of them better. Massoud seems to have been a genuine liberal who had real support across ethnic lines. He also ran a pretty effective military and civil service organization; his home area of Afghanistan is probably the least screwed up part IOTL. I think he could have at least modernized the north and driven the Taliban out of it; with him in charge of Afghanistan the idea of the Taliban IATL 2017 threatening Kunduz and such would have been absurd. The question is what happens in the South. Massoud was a Tajik, so him being President would have given the Taliban the ethnic nationalism card to play and the Pashtuns might have really thrown in whole hog with them.

For maximum dumpster fire points have Massoud end up in charge, Pakistan and the Pashtuns react harshly and begin supporting the Taliban really hard (like with MANPADS and stuff), Massoud start turning to India for help along with the U.S. (Pakistan's worst nightmare), and go from there.
Frankly, I am unsure that Massoud actually wanted the Afghan Presidency; after all, as you said, having a non-Pashtun Afghan President could piss off a lot of Pashtuns. Thus, why not have Massoud be in charge behind the scenes with some Pashtun as the (figurehead) Afghan President?

Also, in regards to Kunduz, there are actually a lot of Pashtuns there due to late 19th and 20th century Pashtun settlement there (and in some other parts of northern Afghanistan); thus, I honestly don't see Kunduz being different in 2017 in this TL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'm pretty sure al-Douri would have been the winner in the power struggle that would have ensued if Saddam died. He wielded enormous influence in Iraq and everybody knew Saddam's kids were nuts.
Wasn't Qusay the sane one of Saddam's sons, though?
 
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