Does Germany resume USW if Russia descends into revolution a couple of months earlier?

OK.

Also, though, did H & L or Kaiser Bill make the final decision in regards to this?

Formally, the Kaiser. In reality he pretty much rubber-stamped what H&L decided, but he probably wasn't all that unwilling. As a well-known marginal note reveals, he was thoroughly fed up with President Wilson's interventions.
 
Something that doesn't seem to have come up yet. Does having the Revolution earlier make a major difference to its course?

One potentially important point relates to the whereabouts of Nicholas II. OTL, in March 1917 the Tsar was well away from Petrograd, on a train. He knew that he and Russia were in a dangerous situation, but he wasn't in immediate physical danger as he made his decisions.

I've not yet discovered exactly where Nicholas was on Oct 31, but Paleologue's memoirs (cited earlier) show that by Nov 6 at latest he was at Tsarskoe Selo - presumably with his family. I'm guessing that that's also where he was the week before. Tsarskoe Selo was only a few miles outside Petrograd, so had the capital boiled over, the Imperial family would be at high risk of capture by rebellious soldiers. Of course Nicky might have done a hasty runner to Stavka or somewhere else, but he wasn't exactly famous for quick decisions, and anyway there'd be no guarantee that things would be better elsewhere, once the news of the revolt began to spread. He could well find himself and his entire family in the hands of mutineers.

What happens then? Do the mutineers just lynch them all out of hand? Do they demand Nicholas' abdication (in favour of whom?); Do they try to issue orders in his name? Or do they take him into the Capital and turn him over to the Petrograd Soviet?

Can the Provisional Government still be formed in the same way as OTL? In this situation, unless Nicholas and Alexei are both known to be dead, Grand Duke Michael (even if he's at liberty himself) has no authority to hand over to it. And even if the same politicos try to appoint themselves as the new government, will a Soviet in possession of the Tsar and his family be inclined to recognise them?

And how do the generals react? Do they try to rescue the Family? And will their troops obey (or go on obeying for any length of time) if they do? Could we be heading for a full-blown civil war? This could be a right unholy mess. Thoughts?
 

Deleted member 94680

One potentially important point relates to the whereabouts of Nicholas II.

I've had a quick look but there isn't much about. As far as I can see, from some website (that reproduces some British guy's War diary), the Tsar was probably at Tsarskoye Selo as he was dining with the Tsar and the Tsarina.

OTL, in March 1917 the Tsar was well away from Petrograd, on a train. He knew that he and Russia were in a dangerous situation, but he wasn't in immediate physical danger as he made his decisions.

This is a good point. Does the physical danger scare him into ordering the Guards out to crush it asap, or does it paralyse him with fear?

Of course Nicky might have done a hasty runner to Stavka or somewhere else, but he wasn't exactly famous for quick decisions, and anyway there'd be no guarantee that things would be better elsewhere, once the news of the revolt began to spread. He could well find himself and his entire family in the hands of mutineers.

He might have tried for a hasty runner, but how easy would it be to get to Stavka? Tsarskoye Selo is South of Saint Petersburg so that means he doesn't have to get past the mutineers as it were, but wouldn't the trains be in paralysis with the strikes etc?

What happens then? Do the mutineers just lynch them all out of hand? Do they demand Nicholas' abdication (in favour of whom?); Do they try to issue orders in his name? Or do they take him into the Capital and turn him over to the Petrograd Soviet?

I think, as it's early days of the revolution, lynching is probably unlikely (of course, the blood is up in the early days and rash decisions can always be made) but a siege of Tsarskoye Selo is a possibility. If orders are issued in the Tsar's name, it would imply he's captured and 'agrees' to their demands (with a strong possibility that they're rescinded if he's ever rescued). Was Grand Duke Michael popular still at this time? A Regency to replace the Tsar whilst the country is calmed maybe?

Can the Provisional Government still be formed in the same way as OTL? In this situation, unless Nicholas and Alexei are both known to be dead, Grand Duke Michael (even if he's at liberty himself) has no authority to hand over to it. And even if the same politicos try to appoint themselves as the new government, will a Soviet in possession of the Tsar and his family be inclined to recognise them?

If the Soviet is in possession of the Tsar, all bets are off. If it's the "mob", then politicals have a chance of taking control of the movement, especially if the Tsar appears willing to listen to demands. If the Soviet has him, they've got the power and won't let it go.

When did Lenin arrive at the Finland Station? It was after the February Revolution OTL, wasn't it? Who's running the soviets at this time? Hardliners or a committee that might see killing the Tsar inflames world opinion against them?

And how do the generals react? Do they try to rescue the Family? And will their troops obey (or go on obeying for any length of time) if they do? Could we be heading for a full-blown civil war? This could be a right unholy mess. Thoughts?

Some troops will definitely remain loyal. If the revolution presents a fait accompli with a captured and 'compliant' Tsar there's a good chance many will go over the the revolution. Otherwise, does Kornilov launch a mission to rescue the Tsar or lift the siege of Tsarskoye Selo? Who could resist this, what revolutionary forces are available?

When was the meeting that the Stavka informed the Tsar that the military wouldn't support him in case of revolution? December '16 IIRC? Was this revealing what had been the case for a long time, or a sudden change of mood?
 
I apologize for asking so many questions here; however, I am simply very curious and get a lot of new thoughts very quickly.

Anyway, though, here goes:

If Russia descends into revolution a couple of months earlier in comparison to our TL (as in, late 1916 rather than early 1917), does Germany still resume unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) in early 1917? Or does Germany conclude that the war is finally turning in its favor and that thus USW is both unnecessary and too much of a risk?

Any thoughts on this?

I would say there is no change to the decision for USW--for the simple reason that few people at first thought that the Russian Revolution would mean the end of Russia's participation in the war. Sukhanov, a left-wing "Zimmerwaldist" Menshevik wrote with regret that "During the first weeks the soldiers of Petrograd not only would not listen, but would not permit any talk of peace. They were ready to lift up on their bayonets any uncautious 'traitor' or exponent of 'opening the front to the enemy.'" (Quoted in Adam Ulam, *The Bolsheviks* [New York: Macmillan 1965], p. 325. https://books.google.com/books?id=TdCK1WkconkC&pg=PA325
 
This is a good point. Does the physical danger scare him into ordering the Guards out to crush it asap, or does it paralyse him with fear?

And would the guards obey if he did? Once the revolution gets started, disaffection will spread like wildfire.



He might have tried for a hasty runner, but how easy would it be to get to Stavka? Tsarskoye Selo is South of Saint Petersburg so that means he doesn't have to get past the mutineers as it were, but wouldn't the trains be in paralysis with the strikes etc?

Almost certainly. And if Wiki can be believed TS was only 15 miles from the centre of Petrograd, so within easy reach of revolutionary soldiers. Also, they mightn't have to come from Petrograd. Paleologue reports a Russian general telling him that there were thousands of troops not only in Petrograd but at TS and other places around, most of them poorly disciplined and unreliable. Such troops would likely join the revolution as soon as they heard about it.

Was Grand Duke Michael popular still at this time? A Regency to replace the Tsar whilst the country is calmed maybe?

Don't know a lot abt Michael but have the impression he was viewed as a bit of a lightweight. One possibility in this situation is that someone (Kerensky?) just goes out on a balcony and proclaims the Russian Republic, rather as Sheidemann would later proclaim the German one. What happens next is anybody's guess.


When did Lenin arrive at the Finland Station? It was after the February Revolution OTL, wasn't it? Who's running the soviets at this time? Hardliners or a committee that might see killing the Tsar inflames world opinion against them?

OTL Lenin arrived in April, a few weeks after the Tsar's fall. Assuming the Germans still provide the sealed train, TTL he probably arrives in late Nov or early Dec.

I'm vague about the composition of the Soviet, but am pretty sure the Bolsheviks did not yet control it.



Some troops will definitely remain loyal. If the revolution presents a fait accompli with a captured and 'compliant' Tsar there's a good chance many will go over to the revolution. Otherwise, does Kornilov launch a mission to rescue the Tsar or lift the siege of Tsarskoye Selo? Who could resist this, what revolutionary forces are available?

Quite a lot, though probably not very organised as yet. But the big problem for Kornilov (or whoever) is that the nearer his men get to Petrograd, the more contact they will have with comrades who have already joined the Revolution [1]. Whatever force he starts with is liable to melt away as it approaches the capital.


When was the meeting that the Stavka informed the Tsar that the military wouldn't support him in case of revolution? December '16 IIRC? Was this revealing what had been the case for a long time, or a sudden change of mood?

I wasn't aware of such a meeting. I thought the question only arose in March, when various generals urged Nicholas to abdicate and professed their inability to suppress the revolution. But I'm no expert and could be wrong.

[1] Of course anyone with access to a wireless will know about it immediately and no doubt spread the news.
 

CaliGuy

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I would say there is no change to the decision for USW--for the simple reason that few people at first thought that the Russian Revolution would mean the end of Russia's participation in the war. Sukhanov, a left-wing "Zimmerwaldist" Menshevik wrote with regret that "During the first weeks the soldiers of Petrograd not only would not listen, but would not permit any talk of peace. They were ready to lift up on their bayonets any uncautious 'traitor' or exponent of 'opening the front to the enemy.'" (Quoted in Adam Ulam, *The Bolsheviks* [New York: Macmillan 1965], p. 325. https://books.google.com/books?id=TdCK1WkconkC&pg=PA325
Good point; however, there might still be the potential for things such as the Russian Army being weakened due to reduced discipline and whatnot following the Russian Revolution (which, in fact, actually did happen in our TL).
 
Good point; however, there might still be the potential for things such as the Russian Army being weakened due to reduced discipline and whatnot following the Russian Revolution (which, in fact, actually did happen in our TL).


Indeed. And it's also possible that things will move faster simply due to the time of year. If the PG (or something similar) is set up just at the onset of Winter, discontent may well grow more rapidly simply because people are that much more miserable - Russian winters are notoriously awful.

Incidentally, is a PG likely to be more receptive to Wilson's peace notes in Dec/Jan?[1] OTL he was pretty comprehensibly snubbed by all, but if the Russian government (prodded by the Soviet?) wants to return a positive answer, can the other Allies refuse?

[1] I am assuming Wilson is still POTUS. There is just a bare possibity that the spectacle of crowds marching round Petrograd waving red flags may give the Socialist candidate a modest boost at Wilson's expense, perhaps just enough to tip CA and NH into the Hughes camp. But that's a very long shot.
 
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