Does Fascist Italy join the Axis if . . .

the Second Italo-Ethiopian War is avoided? I've seen people say that the intense dislike of Nazi Germany and tensions in the early to mid-1930s would've led to the Italians siding with the Allies. Is this true? If so, is it possible for the Italians to join the Axis without the invasion of Ethiopia isolating it from the Allies?
 
the Second Italo-Ethiopian War is avoided? I've seen people say that the intense dislike of Nazi Germany and tensions in the early to mid-1930s would've led to the Italians siding with the Allies. Is this true? If so, is it possible for the Italians to join the Axis without the invasion of Ethiopia isolating it from the Allies?

Probable, at least Benny without the invasion of Abyssinia and the following sanction will not have the surge of popularity that allowed him a further fascisistazion of the country and his influence will be lesser, but much depend on how the war is avoided
 
It's definitely possible, just much less likely. In the end, Italy still was a revisionist Power whose claims on France and the UK definitely outstripped the few potential contentions with Germany even after the Anschluss.

Even if the Abyssinian adventure is pre-empted, if Italy feels Germany has a real chance to win and isn't offered something tangibile by the Allies, they'll go to the Axis side.
 
- South Tyrol boils over as locals push for unification with Austria and over confident Fascists revoke South Tyrol's autonomy and push for romanization of the province? or

- .The Germans, fed up with Italian territorial ambitions not being backed by competent armies, decide not to rescue Italy from the Greeks. Instead, they approach fascist friendly Metaxas and broker a cease fire that lets the Greeks keep southern Albania. The Greeks also inherit an Albanian guerrilla problem- that the Germans offer to help solve in return for more Greco German cooperation.
 
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It's definitely possible, just much less likely. In the end, Italy still was a revisionist Power whose claims on France and the UK definitely outstripped the few potential contentions with Germany even after the Anschluss.

Even if the Abyssinian adventure is pre-empted, if Italy feels Germany has a real chance to win and isn't offered something tangibile by the Allies, they'll go to the Axis side.

This. Tho logically neutrality suits Italy the best. That does not waive away a opportunistic DoW vs Germany late when the Allies are clearly winning, but staying out of it during the nasty years is beneficial for Italy in many ways. Of course Mussolini was a illogical fellow, moved by impulse, ego, & ignorance. But, I don't consider it ASB for a neutral Italy to 1944 or beyond.
 
- South Tyrol boils over as locals push for unification with Austria and over confident Fascists revoke South Tyrol's autonomy and push for romanization of the province? or

What autonomy? Even teaching in Germans was not permitted and against the law

The Germans, fed up with Italian territorial ambitions not being backed by competent armies, decide not to rescue Italy from the Greeks. Instead, they approach fascist friendly Metaxas and broker a cease fire that lets the Greeks keep southern Albania. The Greeks also inherit an Albanian guerrilla problem- that the Germans offer to help solve in return for more Greco German cooperation.

If Italy is not involved in the general war, Greece is not in the same position than OTL as even if the first campaign go as OTL, now she have the reserve to strike again while the Greeks...not, plus consider that the best army and air force unit were in North Africa fighting against the British at the time...so no, there is no way that Greece get out of this on the winning side.
 
Joining the Allies is probably a bit of a strech, given the economic factors and the Italian rivalry with France alone, but neutrality in the conflict is certainly in the cards. Especially if Britain is willing to turn a blind eye to her influence mongering ambitions in the Balkans as a hedge on German power projection towards the ME (As impossible as we know a Trans-Anatolian campaign would be in hindsight, the fear at the time had some legs, or at least air assets operating out of a Quisling Greece)
 
Joining the Allies is probably a bit of a strech, given the economic factors and the Italian rivalry with France alone, but neutrality in the conflict is certainly in the cards. Especially if Britain is willing to turn a blind eye to her influence mongering ambitions in the Balkans as a hedge on German power projection towards the ME ...

Difficult in the case of Yugoslavia. Mussolinis ambitions had made that nation the #1 target in the 1930s. It looks like significant factions in Yugoslavia preferred alignment with Germany as the best bet. Italy lost much of its influence in Rumania 1939 when the latter saw only Germany could counter Soviet ambitions towards Rumania. With cultivation the Greeks could cooperate with Italy in presenting a 'Nuetrality Bloc' of unaligned nations in this war.
 
As long as France falls and Italy is neutral. It will join the Axis in an opportunistic DoW against Allies due to a perception that peace and cheap gains will soon come.
 
What autonomy? Even teaching in Germans was not permitted and against the law
Good point, the autonomy came later. The lack of autonomy for the region does increase the possibility of local revolt (probably somewhat passive ala Catalunya at first and an Italian over reaction that leads to IRA level armed revolt. Austria then threatens to intervene as the guardian of the local German speaking population.
If Italy is not involved in the general war, Greece is not in the same position than OTL as even if the first campaign go as OTL, now she have the reserve to strike again while the Greeks...not, plus consider that the best army and air force unit were in North Africa fighting against the British at the time...so no, there is no way that Greece get out of this on the winning side.

I am thinking that the Metaxas follows fellow fascist Franco and becomes a pro axis nueteral. They could also become a co belligerant, but not a formal ally of Germany. Maybe.....

- Greece permits the Germans to establish naval and airbases in Greece.
- Germany facilitates the transfer of southern Albania to Greece, and also allows Greek troops to occupy disputed areas in Yugoslav Macedonia- or heck, maybe all of Yugoslav Macedonia.
- Greece, like Finland, never declares war on the western allies. But Greece does allows several thousand right wing zealots to be deployed to the Eastern Front as Waffen Legion "Sparta".
- Greece, with no history of anti Semitism beyond a few broken shop windows, also refuses to cooperate in the Holocaust.

After the war, the Greek position is looking good:

Sure, the axis lost- but Greece’s commitment was one brigade of volunteer zealots. The Greeks petition to keep southern Albania and at least the border parts of Macedonia (do the allies really want these regions going communist?).

And….. Oh yeah, the former cooperation with Germany was a “misunderstanding”. Now, Metaxas wants military aid from the allies to defeat Greek leftists. Of course, removing Metaxas could lead to chaos…. and a communist Greece.


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Good point, the autonomy came later. The lack of autonomy for the region does increase the possibility of local revolt (probably somewhat passive ala Catalunya and an Italian over reaction. Austria then threatens to intervene as the guardian of the local German speaking population.

Pre-War, Austria isn't able to threaten Italy in any meaningful way. Even post-War, the guarantees only happened because of international disapproval and not the Austrian threats.
 
Good point, the autonomy came later. The lack of autonomy for the region does increase the possibility of local revolt (probably somewhat passive ala Catalunya and an Italian over reaction. Austria then threatens to intervene as the guardian of the local German speaking population.

Austria at the time was an italian puppet, so nope
 

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Austria at the time was an italian puppet, so nope
Puppet is too strong a term for their relationship. Italy was more a patron in the sense of keeping her independent of Germany rather than calling any shots within Austria, setting the government up, or pushing a foreign policy Austria's leadership didn't already want.
 
Difficult in the case of Yugoslavia. Mussolinis ambitions had made that nation the #1 target in the 1930s. It looks like significant factions in Yugoslavia preferred alignment with Germany as the best bet. Italy lost much of its influence in Rumania 1939 when the latter saw only Germany could counter Soviet ambitions towards Rumania. With cultivation the Greeks could cooperate with Italy in presenting a 'Nuetrality Bloc' of unaligned nations in this war.

I presumed Italy would have to make a move on Yugoslavia earlier, probably around the time of the assassination of King Alexander in 34', and hooking Bulgaria into her alliance network at that early stage before Germany really managed to rise up. Exact events would depend alot on timing, but with the right order of things the question if Italian ambitions in the region could be overshadowed by the rise of Germany (particularly if Czechoslovakia is prevented from honoring the Little Entente out of fears of Germany and France showing its historical hesitance) and the Allies would conclude indulging Italy expanding into a region they never really cared about anyways is preferable if it means keeping them out of the arms of the Germans. A client Albania and Croatia, allies in Bulgaria and Greece with the possability of the Turks hooking in as well to form a broader Non-Aligned Movement/Balkan League of conventional conservative regimes would be a tidy and respectable block to allow Italy to have as it dosen't step on any big Allied toes, nor does it stand in the way of the main German ambitions and so its quite possible Germany just dosen't pay attention to the Med as long he can keep buying resources
 
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the obvious event not mentioned yet, do Italy and/or Nazi regime intervene in Spanish Civil War? (which either does not occur or stalls without either one or both?)

following the premise of the OP, guess poor relation between Italy and Germany could preclude cooperation in Spain? if Italy carried the entire burden of supporting Nationalist side that could force them to remain neutral in WWII? (Spain wrecked, Italy exhausted)

with Germany encroaching into the Balkans, sets up even stronger desire for Italy to make opportunistic jump to Allied side?
 
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