Do you think the world would be a better place had the CP won WW1?

MSchock

Banned
1 Post - interesting thread

Hello,

i am new. I found this thread and like to share my opinion

a cp-win in early 1917 would have been a much better place as otl.
With a mostly german victory france would be down, great britain seriously weakend and russia, maybe the most important thing, wouldn´t turn red.

Sure, some minor nations wouldn´t set free like in ot. But - looking at the historical bloodbath of 1939-45, this is countered by a much better and more peaceful central europe.

France, well france will be hit seriously... it´s status as a large nation would vanish. It would be as important as todays greece, but with a much higer standard of living. I doubt that france would turn red or nazi, the german version of versailles would dismantle the french military force, also the colonies would go (from todays pov nothing bad, just no second worldwar with its losses)

Central europe would be part of a strong german lead block, similar to todays European Union. Again - nothing a nationalistic pole, serb or czech would like, but changes would come. AH was doomed on the long run, so the members would be free in 10, 20 or 30 years. Germany would grow rich - sure. But they need customers, again just like actual days.

Great Britain would have much better times - with a serious defeat in ww1 it will concentrate on its empire, so it has the chance to keep it longer and do not exhaust it in round2.

USA isn´t involved at all - so they made much money, but all debts are secured. Again a win-situation

Russia - without Lenin and the communists - has the chance to stay "white" and do not turn red. It loose less as in brest-litovsk, but will loose significant areas. But areas they also do not have today. Does russia live? yes. Just think about a russia with not 20 million killed people in ww2, how much better it could be?

the osman empire will go down or change - if they find the oil early enough, they will be something like the united arabian emirates on steroids... Nothing the former entente-nations will like, but it will be MUCH better for the rest of the world.

Germany: with its industries intact, winning the war cause a big boost to the economy... germany will be nr2 in economics, like USA 40, Germany 30, rest of the world 30%...

Could nasyt things happen? sure
will be another world war? no.
Why?
France will be to weak, Great Britain as its Partner cannot fight germany, esp. because even with its empire it is to weak - economically. With the osmans and that oil great britain needs german goodwill... otherwise it will run dry.

Germany - as in the years 1872 til 1914 - has no interest in another war, it has everything it want.

So we have a slower degreeing Great britain, a germany that will run in troubles with its european partners (it can go either way: supression or changing the partnership - i think with all the social changes IN germany, it will be a better partnership) but also in the colonies.
But even with some nasty crimes and small wars (like vietnam for the usa in the 60ties) it will be MUCH better as the original timeline.

No holocaust, no 60 million killed and around 30 million moved people is a much better situation for europe.

At last, this is my opinion
 

NothingNow

Banned
BlairWitch749 said:
except for the genocide of the herero people?
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Which was the only such abuse throughout the entire empire.
By and large the German Colonial office was run by businessmen and Idealists. And as such, if an abuse was going to happen, it'd only be slavery, which in itself was rare in the German African Colonies. Especially with people like Wilhelm Solf running the show.

Admittedly, they were bound to loose at least parts of their possessions in the Pacific (if the UK and thus Japan had gotten involved,) but still could've forced the UK to return captured territories in return for treaty concessions.

If the Japanese got involved though, they'd have to pay a lot to get somewhere as nice as Truk back. Without a UK/Japanese entry into the war, or just a short war, the Kaiserliche Marine might turn Truk and Apia into naval bases (as the IJN did to Truk post-war) or at least something more than a coaling station, and capable of servicing the East Asian Cruiser Squadron, and/or a local cruiser squadron.
 

Zaius

The reduced probability of WWII is a good argument for a CP victory. Even though a war may still occur. Russia with no territorial losses or the trouble caused by the civil war is a prime candidate for an opponent of Germany.

The Yogi said:
All the "imprisioned nationalities of Russia" remain free, rather than revert under Soviet rule after WW1 and WW2 respectively.
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A CP victory would be preferable to communism, yes. (Unless Germany develops in an particularly unpleasant direction, perhaps as a result of a late victory). But freedom doesn’t seem to be the right word to describe domination by a country which considers the region a source of raw materials for its industry and dumping ground for its exports. I wonder how Germany will deal with its postwar sphere of influence after AH inevitably fails and Berlin has to oversee the whole area on its own.

BlondieBC also makes a good point that comparing a CP victory with OTL is a bit different from comparing it with any non-CP-victory.
 
Germania09

Germania09

Better world and possibly if the war ends quickly enough will maintain the Austro-Hungarian Empire for a longer time possibly long enough for a couple reforms to be pushed through.
 
anotherlurker

anotherlurker

machine3589 said:
Only if somehow the HSF can sink the Royal Navy. Even in a victory scenario, Germany will probably end up losing some of its colonies, not gaining more.
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great britain has 2 choices there.

either german guns in belgium and northern france after the peace, or german guns in their african india.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Gregg said:
Really? The slavery (at a time when the British and French colonial powers in Africa at least paid the native labour a pittance)? The mass slaughter of the Herero and Nama (with survivors stripping the flesh from their families' skulls so they could be sent back to Germany for anthropolgical study)? The latter was actually a working model for the holocaust, replete with concentration camps, slaughter by medical authority, and the rhetoric of racial annihilation.
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The Germans paid labour a pittance in German East Africa that then would be collected in taxes as a head tax. I understand how one can call this slavery or involuntary labor, but one can't give the Entente a break on the issue. The UK, Belgium, Portugal, Italy, and France all found ways to get basically free labor without having De Jure slavery in most cases. And BTW, the UK did not outlaw slavery until 1908 in Zanzibar and it only applied to people born after the date of the decree, so the UK had slavery until the end. The Imperial Germans are not unique in their behavior and not the worst (Belgian clearly win #1). And concentration camps go back to the Boer Wars by the UK if not earlier. Now the Nazi did have death camps, but they really did not function the same as concentration camps of earlier governments. The industrialized death camp system for an entire race of people was really a Nazi innovation. Earlier colonial powers did kill through neglect and economic exploitation as motives. The Nazi were out to exterminate. While both are evil, they are not the same.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Thoresby said:
The problem is such a result is highly unlikely. While Germany knocking Russia out of the war was a major success and France had problems the Allies simply had a much greater capacity to continue the war. The British blockade and Hindenburg and Ludendorff's mismanagement of the German economy meant that by the summer of 1919 Germany would be forced to surrender because of starvation and industrial collapse.
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USA not staying in war means CP win. We have many threads on this issue, but it basically boils down to a 25% to 35% reduction of war materials for the UK/Italy/France in early 1917. Russia will likely make peace much earlier due to no USA entering war. The UK/France will have a much harder time launching offensives. France will have a very hard time getting the armies to attack again. We can argue butterflies, but barring something bizare, the USA staying out of the war means no Entente win.
 
Nassirisimo

Nassirisimo

The economic situation may be better for Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, provided the war ends early enough. The various peoples of the Austro-Hungarian Empire would retain access to more markets, more resources, and possibly more capital. However, the distribution of wealth by region was very skewered, with the economy being much more productive per-person in areas like Bohemia and Lower Austria than it was in Galicia or Dalmatia. Whether this pattern of wealth inequality would continue, I'm not quite sure. Perhaps a member more knowledgeable on the economics of Austria-Hungary could make a better judgement.

As for the Ottoman Empire, they will be undoubtedly better off. Their enemies will be weakened, for at least a while, but more importantly, their country has managed to break off the shackles of the Capitulations. This means that the lack of capital that retarded attempts at industrialization will be alleviated (though not totally gone). This happened to a limited extent OTL after the war, though a lot of the industrialization and economic growth was recovery from the devastation caused by the various wars. However, if the CP have won a relatively easy victory, the Ottomans would have access to more markets than the Turks of OTL did. Oil production would be coming to the Empire which would mean increased government revenues.

However, a number of problems would still hobble the Ottomans. Their literacy rate was appalling when compared to other European countries, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest the Ottoman Government was interested in the provision of education. Its relatively low population means that it will not be a economic powerhouse for decades to come after the POD. I would guess that ethnic tension would remain quite a problem as well, though the nature of it would depend on whether the Armenian deportations happen as they did OTL or not. But there's a good chance that the Greek population will not be forced out as they were OTL.

So at least for the multi-national empire allies of Germany, the future looks a lot brighter for the people in the Empires, even if they don't have "Freedom" in the form of a ethnically based nation state.
 

lukedalton

Early win: in the end victories for all with less destruction and probably a more enforcable but less crippling treaty. the A-H and the OE can even aquire enough prestige/boldness/occasion to reform
Late win: Germany occupied in military prop up her new vassal state as without her help will not last a month, probaly a decade of low level insurgery and there are the Polish who will not be happy. Internal political problem due to the conflict between SPD and consevative.
The A-H empire get some breath...but is just the dawn of the last day, economic, political and etnic problem who existed before the war return with a vengeance.
In general a Mitteleuropa under German booths and that exist only for exploatation and who will crumble after a while due to sheer human and material cost.
 

ND4

It's probably been addressed but how is Germany going to force the UK to do anything?Why would the UK give them their African colonies back and unless they can get past the Royal Navy, how are they going to GET to their former colonies?
 

NothingNow

Banned
Color-Copycat said:
I imagine the Ottomans or their successors would probably put pretty harsh restrictions on European Jewish immigration to Palestine, too.
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Why?
To prevent social upheaval?
Sure, after some nutcase blows up something, and sparks an angry arab mob it's a given. But at the time actual "picking up stakes and going to the holy land" Zionism was a pretty Secular fringe thing, and they were mostly settling around the extant population and buying useless land.

Now, the inevitable post-war pogroms will encourage Russian Jews to leave the Pale (or further radicalize them, bringing more into the Communist party, Bundism and the labor zionist movement,) but most would probably go to Germany, or North America, where there's work.

Incidentally, a short WWI might keep the Nativist "Americanization" movement from establishing english as the sole instructional language in the US, among other things.
 

The Yogi

I think the best possible outcome of the war would have been Germany going for a Russia first strategy, resulting in Britain and Italy not joining the Entente at once. While Austria overruns Serbia, the Germans repulse the French in Alscace and land a few blows in the East heavy enough that the Russians decide enough is enough, give up Poland and the Baltic States, perhaps even Finland if that is not too implausible. France decides it really doesn't want to fight on alone and, having fullfilled her obligatins to Russia offers a white peace which the Germans accept with relief - no need to try a late Schlieffen provoking Britain to war now. It's all over by 1915 before anyone else has time to join the fray.

The Germans are not all-powerful after the war, but hopefullly busy enough with the Mitteleuropean Empire that they decide to give up on naval competition with Britain. Still, nobody on the continent is going to challenge them now. Russia remains a Monarchy, albeit it goes constitutional. In coming decades, Germany grows ever more prosperous and democratic, and help ease the transition when the AH Empire inevitably collapses. The Austrian half joins Germany after a referendum. After Louis Ferdinand I assumes the throne of the Greater German Empire, the former puppet states are finally granted complete independence.

After the short "Serbian war" as it becomes known, the XX century in Europe is characterized by peace, prosperity, trade and continued diversity rather than rabid nationalism, genocide and war. Today nobody remembers Lenin nor Trotsky except socialism history buffs and Hitler is known only to some art connaisseurs as a somewhat successful Austrian aquarel painter of the realist school. Mussolini remains a newspaper editor.

Perhaps too rosy a picture. But one can always dream of what could have been, right?
 
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