Do You Believe In Magic - An Alternate NBA History

1996-1997 NBA Season
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Sn real life, as everybody knows, Shaquille O’Neal left the Orlando Magic, in part because he always wanted to be in Los Angeles, and, in part because of a newspaper poll where a majority of people said he wasn’t “worth” the large contract he was asking for? Now, what if Shaq stayed in Orlando? What if the Magic were run by actual professionals, as opposed to the bunch of yes men to an Amway CEO? What if, hopefully, Anfernee Hardaway’s knees weren’t made of glass? We’ll see.

Through the help of the fantastic browser sim BasketballGM, over at https://play.basketball-gm.com/

1996 Off-Season

We sign Shaq 15m/yr deal through 2000. In reality, Shaq signed a 7 year deal in Los Angeles, but for realism's sake, he’d sign a slightly larger per year, but shorter deal in Orlando. We also re-sign Horace through 1999. Probably not the best deal to do in-game, but I try to play this somewhat realistic, as opposed to the boom ‘n’ bust cycle people sometimes do

Other Off-Season News
Miami Heat sign Alonzo Mourning to a 7.12 million/yr contract through 2001
VancouverGrizzlies sign Latrell Sprewell to a 6.64 million/yr contract through 2001
Boston Celtics sign Tracy Murray to a 5.49 million/yr contract through 2001
Denver Nuggets sign Oliver Miller for 4.41 million/yr contract through 2000
Philadelphia 76ers sign Ben Wallace to a 1.63 million/yr contract through 2000

In somewhat big difference from reality, the Lakers use their free-agent money on Bryant Stith at 5.18 million/yr through 2000. We'll see how that goes for them

Meanwhile, in the only 'big' off-season trade, the Raptors send Marcus Camby and a 2000 1st Rounder to the Pacers for Rik Smits, Derrick McKey, Mark Jackson, and 2 First Round picks. This is kind of a huge one as this seems to be a way to make the Raptors a possible playoff contender, and a sign the Pacers are perhaps rebuilding?

1996-97 Pre-Season

Shaq has a good prog roll, most of older players including Grant get a little worse, but Hardaway solidly stays one of the better players in the NBA.

Around the League
Major Trades -

Portland Trail Blazers trade Jermaine O'Neal & a 1999 2nd rounder to the Miami Heat for a 2000 1st round pick
Atlanta Hawks trades Christian Lattner to the Philadelphia 76ers for Clarence Weatherspoon, Derrick Alston, and Mark Henderson

Standings

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Orlando Magic - 52-30 - y
Miami Heat - 49-33 - x
New Jersey Nets - 40-42 - x
Boston Celtic - 39-43 - x
New York Knicks - 36-46
Washington Bullets - 35-47
Philadelphia 76ers - 19-63

Central Division
Chicago Bulls - 60-22 - z
Atlanta Hawks - 47-35 - x
Cleveland Cavaliers - 46-36 - x
Detroit Pistons - 41-41 - x
Milwaukee Bucks - 37-45
Charlotte Hornets - 36-46
Indiana Pacers - 26-56
Toronto Raptors - 24-48

Western Conference
Midwest Division

Vancouver Grizzlies - 48-34 - y
Houston Rockets - 44-38 - x
Minnesota T’Wolves - 43-39 - x
Dallas Mavericks - 40-42
Utah Jazz - 40-42
San Antonio Spurs - 40-42
Denver Nuggets - 33-49

Pacific Division
Los Angeles Lakers - 60-22 - z
Portland Trail Blazers - 48-34 - x
Sacramento Kings - 47-35 - x
Golden State Warriors - 43-39 - x
Los Angeles Clippers - 41-41
Seattle Sonics - 40-42
Phoenix Suns - 35-47

Around the League

Miami does 12 games worse than they did in real life, in part due to Tim Hardaway and Alonzo Mourning not being as good as they were in OTL, but also no trade for either Dan Marjele or Jamal Mashburn.

New Jersey becomes a very fringe playoff team thanks to Kerry Kittles improving to be an actual possible All-Star level player and some lucky bounces. Boston also is a fringe playoff team due in part due to a weak conference, but also a little more parity than reality, and some slightly better play from Eric Williams and Antonine Walker. The Knicks collapse out of the playoffs, mostly due Ewing & Starks both dropping from good players to slightly above average players and a lack of actual stars leading quickly to mediocracy.

The Bulls only easily win the number one seed instead of having one of the best records in history, largely due to MJ taking a step back, to only a really good player instead of the GOAT. The Hawks fall off a bit due to everyone getting a wee bit worse, and a lack of top-tier players. A 20 game injury to Glen Rice doesn't help the Hornets as they drop off from a 54-win pace IRL to missing the playoffs, along with players like Rice, Larry Johnson, and Dell Curry all taking a step back.

The Pacers fall out of the playoffs, with their younger lineup, which I'm sure Reggie Miller isn't too happy about, but the addition of several decent veterans to Damon Stoudamire doesn't help matters as the Raptors fall to the bottom of the division, even though, an injury to Stoudamire, that keeps him out for over 10 games doesn't help matters either.

The signing of Sprewell, Bryan Reeves becoming a solid center, and Lawrence Moten jumping up to be a serviceable player, along with other improvements, all help the Grizzlies make a huge jump from their actual win-total going from a paltry 14 to a division-leading 48. In Houston, the Rockets fall off due to Hakeem getting a little worse, and the guard trio of Kenny Smith, Sam Cassell, and Clyde Drexler all dropping a level earlier, a little earlier than they actually did. By the Great Salt Lake, Malone is still awesome, but Stockton is now no longer the best point guard in basketball, plus Stockton misses 15 games, which leaves an aging Jeff Hornacek as the best 2nd option, which isn't great.

Out in the Pacific, the Lakers end up doing better than in Shaq's actual first year, as Eddie Jones, Nick Van Exel, Vlade Divac, and FA signing Bryan Stith all take a jump up, leading to a balanced attack which leads to a 60-win total. In addition, Sacramento as Peja and Tyrus Edney leveling up, and has some good luck which leads to a playoff spot, even though aging Mitch Richmond doesn't do quite as well. In Golden State, Joe Smith isn't a bust, Donyell Marshall advances into a serviceable starter, and along with BJ Armstrong and Chris Mullin coming off the bench, managed to get a playoff spot. Finally, in Seattle, the combination of starters like Deletf Schrempf taking a step back, a 10 game injury to both Shawn Kemp & Hershey Hawkins, is all enough to make Sonics go from a 60-win team to one that barely misses the playoffs in this version of reality.

Orlando Magic
1996-97 Roster & Stats
Record
– 52-30 (2nd in Conference)
MOV - 2.6 (5th) / ORtg - 110.2 (5th) / DRtg - 107.2 (23rd) / NRtg - 3.0 (5th)

Starters
Shaquille O'Neal - C - 81 GP, 21.6 PTS, 10.4 REB, 2.3 BLK, 23.3 PER
Horace Grant - PF - 82 GP, 7.8 PTS, 6.1 REB, 12.7 PER
Dennis Scott - F/G - 82 GP, 17.1 PTS, 38.3% 3P, 18.0 PER
Nick Anderson - G/F - 66 GP, 10.8 PTS, 4.0 REB, 2.4 AST, 13.4 PER
Anfernee Hardaway - G - 66 GP, 19.2 PTS, 4.7 REB, 7.6 AST, 24.1 PER

Important Bench
Brian Shaw - G - 82 G / 28 GS, 8.4 PG, 6.3 AST, 13.4 PER
Donald Royal - SF - 82 G/5 GS, 5.9 PTS, 11.5 PER

Playoffs

In the First Round, it’s largely chalk in the East outside of the #5 seed Cavs taking out the #4 seed Hawks in 4 games, but also, in the 1v8 match-up, it looks like a sweep as the Bulls take two at home, even though they have to win game 2 in OT after Pippen hits a game-winner at the buzzer, but the Celtics somehow manage to win the two in the Garden, when in game five, the Celtics enter the 4th quarter with 4-point lead, but at the buzzer, Steve Kerr drills a basket at the buzzer to win 88-86.

Out West, the Lakers & Rockets easily get to round two, but the Warriors upset the Trail Blazers in five, thanks to Joe Smith throwing in 28 in game five, and then in a somewhat big upset, the Ray Allen/Kevin Garnett duo in Minnesota take out the #2 seed Grizzlies in five games. Yes, Latrell Sprewell missed the first three games, allowing the T'Wolves to take a 2-1 lead, but the Timberwolves barely win game 4 thanks to a Big Country basket at the buzzer, but in game 5, a still injured Sprewell isn't enough, as the T-Wolves escape w/ a 1-point victory to get to the 2nd round.

In the 2nd round, both the Magic & Warriors sweep their opponents (Miami & Minnesota), while the Lakers get past the Rockets in five. Meanwhile, the Bulls & Cavs have a classic 7 game series in part helped by a strained groin from Jordan, which leads to having him two less than Jordanesque performances (a 12 and 21 point game), which allow the Cavs to get two extra wins, setting up a pivotal 7th game where...the Bulls wax the Cavs by 28 thanks to a recovered Jordan scoring 24 and Pippen adding in 23.

In the conference finals, the Lakers basically stomp to the Finals with another sweep, while things are much more interesting in the East.

The first six games are trading off wins, with none of them being particularly close, but none of them being blowouts either, aside from a 26 point beatdown in game 5 thanks to 26 from Penny and 22 from Shaq.

Game 7 looked to be a solid Magic win, but the Bulls fought back to a 86-86 tie w/ 3 minutes left, when Jordan actually missed a solid jumper, then Anderson missed a jumper on the other end, but Hardaway got the rebound, leading to Shaq being fouled and drilling both free throws.

Then on the other end, in a move that fans in Chicago will talk about all off-season, Kukoc missed a 3, got the balls back after an offensive rebound, then missed another shot! The Bulls were helped by Nick Anderson bricking a 3, leading to a patented Jordan mid-range jumper, but the Magic struck back with a huge Nick Anderson 3-pointer! From there, the teams would trade free throws, including O'Neal and Hardaway both hitting big free throws, all leading to 97-95 Magic win, after a pointless Ron Harper 3-pointer at the buzzer.

It's a huge game 7 for both Magic stars as O'Neal has 33 points & 15 rebounds, while Hardaway has a triple double thanks to 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists, all while Jordan & Pippen had 26 & 21 respectively. But, it sure looks to be a changing of the guard here in the East.

1997 NBA Finals - Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers

I swear I didn't set this up, it's literally what the game gave me.

Game One - Shaq gets into foul trouble, and Penny has a terrible shooting night (2 out of 16), so the Lakers win by 10, 80-70.
Game Two - Hardaway drops 30, but O'Neal once again gets into foul trouble, while Van Exel gets 22 for the Lakers to give them an 85-74 win.

Game Three - A big five point win, 104-99, behind Hardaway's 35 points, and Shaq even getting 19 & 13 despite 6 fouls

Game Four - We tie the series up, winning 98-90, thanks to Penny getting 27, Shaq managing 18 points before his sixth foul, but Dennis Scott hitting 4 three pointers on his way to 23 points, all while the Lakers have a bad shooting night, including Bryant Stith going 0-for-7 on 3 pointers. In addition, Eddie Jones injures his hamstring, and the Lakers bench isn't the best.

Game Five - The Magic take the lead, thanks to an 8 point win, 88-80, led by of all people, Horace Grant exploding with 24 points, helped by Shaq grabbing 17 rebounds to go with his 16 points, and Penny even getting 17 of his own.

Game Six - Eddie Jones plays hurt for game six, but it doesn't help, as the Magic win the NBA title 80-70, behind an amazing 34 points from Hardaway, and Shaq having another big rebounding night, grabbing 16 rebounds to go with 17 points.

MVP Voting - It's one of the more interesting MVP races all season, as Van Exel gets some strong support as the face of the new era of the Lakers, both Shaq & Penny have their supporters as the future of the NBA, Jordan is Jordan even slightly weakened from his All-Universe level, and there's even some support for Latrell Sprewell for turning award the Grizzlies, and David Robinson for being a dominant player for a mediocre Spurs team.

In the end, a very split vote allows Jordan to get another MVP, with Van Exel slightly behind and O'Neal in 3rd place.

Other Awards -
Defensive Player of the Year - David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs - (12.7 reb, 2.4 blk, 1.3 stl)
6th Man of the Year - Elden Campbell, Los Angeles Lakers - (9.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.0 ast)
Most Improved Player - Donyell Marshall, Golden State Warriors - (15.2 pts, 7.7 reb, 0.9 ast)
Rookie of the Year - Kerry Kittles, New Jersey Nets - (18.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.3 ast)

All-NBA Teams
1st Team

C - Shaquille O'Neal, Orlando Magic
F - Scottie Pippen, Chicago Bulls
F - Karl Malone, Utah Jazz
G - Michael Jordan, Chicago Bulls
G - Nick Van Exel, Los Angeles Lakers

Second Team
C - David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs
F - Joe Smith, Golden State Warriors
F - Toni Kukoc, Chicago Bulls
G - Penny Hardaway, Orlando Magic
G - Terrel Brandon, Cleveland Cavaliers

Third Team
C - Bryan Reeves, Vancouver Grizzlies
F - Grant Hill, Detroit Pistons
F - Steve Smith, Atlanta Hawks
G - Eddie Jones, Los Angeles Lakers
G - Tim Hardaway, Miami Heat

All-Rookie Team
C - Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Vancouver Grizzlies
F - Antoine Walker, Boston Celtics
F - Peja Stojakovic, Sacramento Kings
G - Ray Allen, Minnesota T’Wolves
G - Kerry Kittles, New Jersey Nets
 
1997 NBA Offseason
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(Tim Duncan ended up in Indiana as the 1st pick in the draft)

Draft Lottery Changes
Phoenix - 5th to 3rd
Denver - 4th to 5th
Indiana - 3rd to 1st
Toronto - 2nd to 2nd
Philadelphia - 1st to 4th

1997 NBA Draft (Important Players)
1st - Tim Duncan, Indiana Pacers
2nd - Tracy McGrady, Toronto Raptors
3rd - Tim Thomas, Phoenix Suns
4th - Chauncey Billups, Philadelphia 76ers
5th - Keith Van Horn, Denver Nuggets
6th - Ron Mercer, Washington Bullets
20th - Tony Battie, Houston Rockets
27th - Scot Pollard, Orlando Magic

Orlando Free Agent Signings
Veterans Sam Cassell (54/54, 29 yrs old) & Greg Anthony (53/53, 31 yrs old) to veteran minimum contracts, as I’m of the opinion you need at least 8 solid (50+ players) on the roster, to contend for the title.

Trades
Damien Exum & '01 2nd rounder to Seattle for cap space
Darrell Armstrong & '00 2nd rounder to Houston for cap space, as both players were not part of either our short or long-term prospects and at least for now, I don’t really care about 2nd rounders

Other FA Signings
Shawn Kemp - Miami Heat - 1.99m/yr for 5 years

It was a fairly quiet off-season, but with the Sonics moving strongly into rebuilding mode, Kemp joins the other veteran in South Beach, on a somewhat team-friendly contract.

Other Trades
The only two trades of note were connected as first, Clarence Weatherspoon of Atlanta (58/61, 27 yrs) was sent to Dallas for Jim Jackson (60/60, 30 yrs), then the Hawks turned around and sent Jackson to Washington for PG Robert Pack (55/56, 28 ys)

Pre-Season Notes
Boston - Derrick Martin & Jerome Allen, two pieces in a low-key trade that sent Rick Fox to Minnesota last year seemed to be now decent NBA players

Charlotte - Kobe Bryant, in his 2nd year is looking to be a solid starter, while Tony Delk continues to develop, and Larry Johnson might bounce back

Chicago - Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen are beginning to look mortal, which is not great for Da Bulls

Denver - 5th pick Keith Van Horn looks to be an actual star, and Antonio McDyess might also be something special, but the rest of the team is not looking so great

Detroit - Grant Hill continues to develop, but that's about it

Golden State - Joe Smith looks like an actual star and fringe MVP candidate, but Donyell Marshall & BJ Armstrong might've regressed a bit

Houston - It's looking tough for veterans like Hakeem, Drexler, and Horry, but 20th pick Tony Battie looks surprisingly solid with a much bigger upside than expected

Indiana - Tim Duncan looks like a solid 1st pick, Reggie Miller isn't dead yet, and the improvement of Erick Dampier & Marcus Camby means the Pacers will have a hell of a frontcourt for anybody to deal with.

LA Clippers - The Clippers continue to develop well, plus 16th pic Chris Antsey might turn out to be a solid starter in the NBA, to the surprise of those who have followed the Clipper’s draft choices.

LA Lakers - Derek Fisher has evolved to be what looks like a solid 6th man, while Nick Van Exel continues to develop to an MVP contender

Miami - The relatively cheap addition of Shawn Kemp means the Heat are a possible problem for the Magic and other teams in the East

Milwaukee - The Bucks missed out on the playoffs last year, but the evolution of Vin Baker & Glenn Robinson gives them a shot at making it in this year, but a rough bench will make it tough

Minnesota - Ray Allen looks to have a breakout 2nd year, while Garnett continues to fill out to be a solid player. Gugliotta & Fox are treading water, which might be an issue for the T'Wolves if they want to advance farther

New Jersey - Kerry Kittles might have an outside shot at the MVP if the Nets can get into the playoffs, but the issue is the rest of his team has some major issues.

Orlando - The defending champions are largely the same, outside the addition of a couple veteran bench players, but Shaquille O'Neal came to the pre-season a bit overweight

Philadelphia - Billups is the future of Philly, along with Allen Iverson, but can other young players like Laettner and Stackhouse cause a surprise in the East?

Toronto - Both veterans sent to Toronto for Camby already look to be shot, but on the other hand, McGrady looks like a future megastar, and the rest of the starting lineup is solid.

Utah - Karl Malone is finally beginning to look his age in Salt Lake

Vancouver - Latrell looks to continue his improvement, but the rest of the roster might be the issue.

Pre-Season General Manager Poll

Top 10 Players
01.) David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs
02.) Anfernee Hardaway, Orlando Magic
03.) Kerry Kittles, New Jersey Nets
04.) Joe Smith, Utah Jazz
05.) Ray Allen, Minnesota T'Wolves
06.) Nick Van Exel, Los Angeles Lakers
07.) Latrell Sprewell, Vancouver Grizzlies
08.) Clifford Robinson, Portland Trail Blazers
09.) Glenn Robinson, Milwaukee Bucks
10.) Karl Malone, Utah Jazz

Players on the Rise
1.) Tony Battie, Houston Rockets
2.) Ray Allen, Minnesota T'Wolves
3.) Kerry Kittles, New Jersey Nets

Falling Players
1.) Karl Malone, Utah Jazz
2.) Scottie Pippen, Chicago Bulls
3.) Michael Jordan, Chicago Bulls

Pre-Season Picks -
Title - Lakers over Magic
MVP - Nick Van Exel, Los Angeles
ROTY - Tracy McGrady
 
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