The Ukrainian model maybe? Politics oscillating between Russia and EU every few year but never descending into ethno-political violence (disclaimer - i dont see the war in Eastern Ukraine as a civil war).
This would sound quite possible, on the face of it. If we have alternating governments by pro-Western and pro-Russian parties, then they might use their years in power essentially for undoing each others' accomplishments, such as they are. Estonia is the Baltic nation I know best, and I'd say that IOTL its successful economic development has relied on the ability of its governments to run, at least to an extent, a consistent overall strategy in modernizing the economy. ITTL, it would be hard to see even that kind of a national consensus emerging, and these nations with their see-sawing policies would find it hard to invite foreign partners from the West to work in the Baltic area. Hence, the capacity for economic development and growth would be smaller, and the risks of corruption and instability greater ITTL. This would also translate into a bigger brain drain and emigration for work.