Do Latvia & Estonia get partitioned if Slavs comprise a majority of their pop. in 1989?

According to these maps more that half of the population of Latvia was non Latvian in 1979, however not so in 1989.

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iVC

Donor
AFAIK, the reason that Kazakhstan was able to come out of the USSR in one piece in 1991 is because Kazakhs were in charge of the government there. Had Slavs been in charge of the Kazakh government in 1991, it's not outside the realm of possibility that they would have pushed to join Russia right after the collapse of the USSR.

The situation with the Central Asian SSR's was a bit different.

Practically all industry and trade in Asian republics was very closely tied to cooperation and supplies of raw materials from central Russia and Ukraine. The leadership of the Central Asian republics reluctantly took a decision of independence only after the Moscow and Kiev centers announced the dissolution of the USSR. Asian elites guessed that their economy would collapse to the ground (and they were right).

Simultaneously, the Baltic republics had hopes of integration into the European market and of possible quick reorientation of the remaining Soviet production plants in the republics to Western consumption.

This is why there was not any ethic cleansing in the Central Asia until the end of 1992 and 1993. Initially elites were interested in maintaining of russian tech ties which managed to survive the initial wave of 'formal independence' popping out. But then the wave of civil struggles came due to economy crash and nationalistic tensions became rising and shining in the former Asian republics.
 
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iVC

Donor
As for the position of the Russian minority (in this TL case, the majority) in the Baltic states, it may be explained by everyday reasons.

The russian-speaking population of the Baltic region initially believed that the Baltic republics would be quickly integrated into the Western economy, and then, at least in the 90s, the standard of living in these small states would be higher than in the Greater Russia.

It was a simple pragmatic choice for a higher standard of living. It would be justified if the new governments didn't began to pursue a policy of exaltation of indigenous nationality to the detriment of others. If the new governments of the Baltic countries were to achieve absolute equality for all their citizens, whether they were autochthonous population or former Soviet citizens from other places, then we could say that the former russians in the Baltics steals a jackpot.

So I think that even if the Russian-speaking population prevailed, it might be tempted to quickly become an "independent western country." But in this case, of course, there would be more equality in the rights of citizens with no civil death for the non-autochthonous population (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-citizens_(Latvia)).
 
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iVC

Donor
They were going thought a lot of issues in the 1990s , They even lose to Chechnya!

In Chechnya, there was no friendly local population, in the Baltic States, though, a large support base for the local population may be found.

But in general considering the honeymoon in the relations between Russia and the West, Russia will by all means refrain from any pressure on the former union republics.
 
So I think that even if the Russian-speaking population prevailed, it might be tempted to quickly become an "independent western country." But in this case, of course, there would be more equality in the rights of citizens with no civil death for the non-autochthonous population (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-citizens_(Latvia)).

There would be more political equality, sure, but then if there are more political parties in the Baltic countries ITTL that base their membership and politics strongly on linguistic-ethnic issues, these countries would likely see more tumultuous politics all around in the 90s. The ethnic Estonians for example would stress the idea of an Estonian national identity based on everyone learning Estonian, at least passably, and if there was a, say, 40-45% ethnic Russian/Slav minority, there would probably be heavy resitance for having Estonian as a mandatory subject for all. As the other side would be strictly against Russian being mandatory for the native Estonian-speakers, it would not be an easy knot to untangle. More political division in parliament and in official national politics would then be to be expected - IOTL the practical disenfranchisement of a large part of the ethnic Russians pushed some of this division into the margins. Which indeed was one of the reasons of the OTL policies on nationality, even if we are rightly critical of them: to avoid overt ethnicity-based division and to increase internal political cohesion.


In Chechnya, there was no friendly local population, in the Baltic States, though, a large support base for the local population may be found.

But in general considering the honeymoon in the relations between Russia and the West, Russia will by all means refrain from any pressure on the former union republics.

The problems inherent in the situation would come to the fore after Russia starts to rebound from the worst crisis in the 00s. Now, if Moscow wants to influence the local politics, it would have a larger and more politically active and also more practically powerful ethnic Russian base to reach out to in the Baltic states. And naturally it would want to influence the local politics in the Baltics, as when joining the EU and NATO becomes an issue, the Russian governmnet would definitely want to use every available avenue to boost the "NO" side and emphasize various connections with Russia instead.
 

iVC

Donor
@DrakonFin, in this TL independent Baltic states may want to find salvation in a form of melting pot ideology. Colossians 3:11 enforced on the state level, 'Where there is neither Greek nor Jew, circumcision nor uncircumcision, Barbarian, Scythian, bond nor free: but Baltic Region equality is all, and in all.'

Switzerland is an example of four official languages equally promoted.

But IOTL, unfortunately, new governments have chosen the old way of a mono-national state and good old ethnic nationalism.
 
@DrakonFin, in this TL independent Baltic states may want to find salvation in a form of melting pot ideology. Colossians 3:11 enforced on the state level, 'Where there is neither Greek nor Jew, circumcision nor uncircumcision, Barbarian, Scythian, bond nor free: but Baltic Region equality is all, and in all.'

Switzerland is an example of four official languages equally promoted.

Switzerland does not have the recent history of the Baltic states, with two world wars and being the battleground between great powers and totalitarian systems. It has also not experienced the horrors of Stalinism and over four decades of Soviet real Socialism in the 20th century. Even if there was a serious attempt for forging a new hybrid national identity in these nations post-1990, I believe that it would have required a lot of time and effort to practically realize a system of more-or-less harmonious coexistence. Certainly the 90s would not have been long enough to iron out all the inherent problems based on Baltic history and the different interpretations of it, and then in the 00s also the predicted strong Russian influence would have added another complication to the equation.

Personally, I think it is realistic to say that with nearly or over 50% Slavic/Russian population, all the Baltic states would have likely been politically more unstable than IOTL for the entire periof from 1990 to 2018.


But IOTL, unfortunately, new governments have chosen the old way of a mono-national state and good old ethnic nationalism.

This is in a major and basic way due to the national trauma among the ethnic Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians due to the Soviet takeover in 1940 and the subsequent smothering of their independence and national identity by the USSR for several decades. It was understandable that the new independence was seen as a restoration of the post-WWI republics - there was a big social demand for such a development. More Russian immigration into the Baltic states does not remove this view from among the local native ethnicities - if anything, it might even boost the perceived need of independent states as vessels for "national self-defence against Russification".
 

iVC

Donor
Personally, I think it is realistic to say that with nearly or over 50% Slavic/Russian population, all the Baltic states would have likely been politically more unstable than IOTL for the entire periof from 1990 to 2018.

Of course, of course.
 
Maybe Poland, maybe Germany due to being regional powers.

Most probably EU as whole due to capital and manpower flight from the Baltic states.
This is a constant loop of sorts isn't it? more Russians>more political instability>more non-Russians fleeing>even more Russian presence due to others leaving>eventually Russians are the inarguable supermajority in Estonia and Latvia.
 

iVC

Donor
This is a constant loop of sorts isn't it? more Russians>more political instability>more non-Russians fleeing>even more Russian presence due to others leaving>eventually Russians are the inarguable supermajority in Estonia and Latvia.

It's dubious that only non-russian population decides to flee the politically unstable countries. Remember the precondition about them choosing the independent Baltic states because of higher living standards.
 
It's dubious that only non-russian population decides to flee the politically unstable countries. Remember the precondition about them choosing the independent Baltic states because of higher living standards.
So in reality both groups would be roughly evenly represented in the group that is fleeing?
 
So in reality both groups would be roughly evenly represented in the group that is fleeing?
In OTL, Russians left by greater amounts than Latvians and Estonians, as many of them repatriated to their homeland (the percentage of Russians in Latvia and Estonia has been shrinking since 1991).
 
In OTL, Russians left by greater amounts than Latvians and Estonians, as many of them repatriated to their homeland (the percentage of Russians in Latvia and Estonia has been shrinking since 1991).
In this case though it's there home land right there - no nationalists in power demanding they speak another language or seeing them as foreign colonists/agents.
 
In this case though it's there home land right there - no nationalists in power demanding they speak another language or seeing them as foreign colonists/agents.

This would of course depend on who, exactly, is in power. The political life of these Baltic states might be pretty interesting in the 90s and 00s.
 
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