Do Latvia & Estonia get partitioned if Slavs comprise a majority of their pop. in 1989?

The Avenger

Banned
If the Soviet government gets more Slavs (Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians) to move to Latvia & Estonia between 1945 and 1989 to the point that Slavs comprise a majority of the total population in Latvia & Estonia, do Latvia & Estonia get partitioned during the fall of the Soviet Union?

I'm thinking that it would be difficult for Latvians & Estonians to run an apartheid state where they deny the suffrage to the Slavs living in their countries; after all, Russia probably won't tolerate this--and neither will the West! On the flip side, though, giving suffrage to the Slavs in Latvia and Estonia in this TL would have resulted in Latvians & Estonians getting outvoted if Slavs voted as a group. Thus, could a partition of Latvia & Estonia be the best option in this TL?

Thoughts?
 
Partitioned between who? A partition implies dividing a country between its neighbours.

So Latvia and Estonia partitioned between Russia and... Lithuania? Sweden? Finland?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Partitioned between who? A partition implies dividing a country between its neighbours.

So Latvia and Estonia partitioned between Russia and... Lithuania? Sweden? Finland?
A partition between Russia and Latvian/Estonian nationalists.
 
A partition between Russia and Latvian/Estonian nationalists.
Then that's not a partition, but a Russian annexation of Latvian and Estonian territory.

Either way, I think it could have been possible assuming that the post-dissolution government in Russia is belligerent enough. Yeltsin was not, but depending on how the situation in the Baltics unfolds, he could intervene, or the Russians in Latvia/Estonia simply declare independence on their own, Transnistria style.

Note that Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia, which are already fairly big today, used to be even larger in 1991 (I think they reached up to 30% of the population in one or two of them), but many of those Russians, being recent immigrants during the Soviet Union era, simply left for their homeland. The same could happen in this scenario and so the Russian demographic advantage could be short-lived, anyway.

A Latvia or Estonia with 45-50% Russians would be... problematic, but possible.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Then that's not a partition, but a Russian annexation of Latvian and Estonian territory.

There could initially be semi-independent mini-states in the Russian parts of Latvia and Estonia before these parts are actually annexed by Russia, though.

Didn't Crimea declare independence several days before it was annexed by Russia?

Either way, I think it could have been possible assuming that the post-dissolution government in Russia is belligerent enough. Yeltsin was not, but depending on how the situation in the Baltics unfolds, he could intervene, or the Russians in Latvia/Estonia simply declare independence on their own, Transnistria style.

Note that Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia, which are already fairly big today, used to be even larger in 1991 (I think they reached up to 30% of the population in one or two of them), but many of those Russians, being recent immigrants during the Soviet Union era, simply left for their homeland. The same could happen in this scenario and so the Russian demographic advantage could be short-lived, anyway.

A Latvia or Estonia with 45-50% Russians would be... problematic, but possible.

If the Russian percentage in Latvia & Estonia is that large, though, couldn't the Russians there try preventing independence?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Its more likely they just get outvoted or the Nationalists try to Ethnically cleanse the Slavs
Having them be outvoted is possibly if a lot of them are disenfranchised and/or emigrate.

As for ethnic cleansing, I don't think that either Russia or the West would actually tolerate that.
 
Kazakhstan kept its borders, even though in 1989 Russians (37.8%) and Ukrainians (5.4%) and Belarusians (1.1%) combined outnumbered Kazakhs (39.7%) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kazakhstan

Anyway, Latvians were only 52 percent of Latvia's population in 1989: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia I doubt that a slightly lower percentage would make that much of a difference. If the Russians wanted to grab and felt they could get away with grabbing the Russian-speaking eastern parts of the country, they would have done so whatever the percentages in Latvia as a whole.
 

The Avenger

Banned
Kazakhstan kept its borders, even though in 1989 Russians (37.8%) and Ukrainians (5.4%) and Belarusians (1.1%) combined outnumbered Kazakhs (39.7%) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kazakhstan

Anyway, Latvians were only 52 percent of Latvia's population in 1989: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Latvia I doubt that a slightly lower percentage would make that much of a difference. If the Russians wanted to grab and felt they could get away with grabbing the Russian-speaking eastern parts of the country, they would have done so whatever the percentages in Latvia as a whole.
AFAIK, the reason that Kazakhstan was able to come out of the USSR in one piece in 1991 is because Kazakhs were in charge of the government there. Had Slavs been in charge of the Kazakh government in 1991, it's not outside the realm of possibility that they would have pushed to join Russia right after the collapse of the USSR.

Thus, an interesting question is whether Latvians/Estonians or Slavs are going to be in charge of Latvia/Estonia in 1991 in this TL. I'd bet that Latvians/Estonians would be in charge, but with a higher Slavic percentage, I can't be sure of this. Of course, Kazakhstan did have a higher Slavic percentage and yet Kazakhs were nevertheless in charge of Kazakhstan in 1991.

Also, you're absolutely correct that Russia could make a land grab in Latvia and Estonia regardless of the Slavic percentages in Latvia and Estonia. After all, the relevant percentages would probably be the Slavic percentages in the parts of Latvia/Estonia that Russia would actually want to occupy.
 
AFAIK, the reason that Kazakhstan was able to come out of the USSR in one piece in 1991 is because Kazakhs were in charge of the government there. Had Slavs been in charge of the Kazakh government in 1991, it's not outside the realm of possibility that they would have pushed to join Russia right after the collapse of the USSR.

Thus, an interesting question is whether Latvians/Estonians or Slavs are going to be in charge of Latvia/Estonia in 1991 in this TL. I'd bet that Latvians/Estonians would be in charge, but with a higher Slavic percentage, I can't be sure of this. Of course, Kazakhstan did have a higher Slavic percentage and yet Kazakhs were nevertheless in charge of Kazakhstan in 1991.

Also, you're absolutely correct that Russia could make a land grab in Latvia and Estonia regardless of the Slavic percentages in Latvia and Estonia. After all, the relevant percentages would probably be the Slavic percentages in the parts of Latvia/Estonia that Russia would actually want to occupy.

The Latvian Popular Front's electoral victory in 1990 was so overwhelming that it is pretty clear that it would have won even if the percentage of ethnic Latvians had been a few points less: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_Supreme_Soviet_election,_1990 And just as some Russians supported the Popular Front (e.g., Alex Grigorievs, who later became critical of the Latvian parliament's treatment of the citizenship issue https://books.google.com/books?id=NVw6m9SWxb4C&pg=PA107) some Latvians supported the Communists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfrēds_Rubiks
 

The Avenger

Banned
The Latvian Popular Front's electoral victory in 1990 was so overwhelming that it is pretty clear that it would have won even if the percentage of ethnic Latvians had been a few points less: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_Supreme_Soviet_election,_1990 And just as some Russians supported the Popular Front (e.g., Alex Grigorievs, who later became critical of the Latvian parliament's treatment of the citizenship issue https://books.google.com/books?id=NVw6m9SWxb4C&pg=PA107) some Latvians supported the Communists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfrēds_Rubiks
Interesting.

Also, what about Estonia?
 
Interesting.

Also, what about Estonia?

In Estonia, Russians were heavily outnumbered by Estonians. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia Both the Popular Front and the reformed Communists favored independence; the "anti-independence "Joint Council of Work Collectives", representing mostly the Russian-speaking minority in Estonia" got only 25 seats out of 105. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Supreme_Soviet_election,_1990 Only the northeastern part of the country was predominantly Russian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ida-Viru_County though Tallinn has a large Russian-speaking population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tallinn#Demographics
 
In Estonia, Russians were heavily outnumbered by Estonians. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia Both the Popular Front and the reformed Communists favored independence; the "anti-independence "Joint Council of Work Collectives", representing mostly the Russian-speaking minority in Estonia" got only 25 seats out of 105. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estonian_Supreme_Soviet_election,_1990 Only the northeastern part of the country was predominantly Russian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ida-Viru_County though Tallinn has a large Russian-speaking population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tallinn#Demographics

In the 1991 independence referendum, 78.4% voted for independence, with a 82.9% turnout. Even in Tallinn, which was 41.2% Russian in 1991, the pro-independence vote was as high as 65.85%.

I'd say that on balance, given the Tallinn numbers, even with a bigger ethnic Russian population (c. 40-50%) in Estonia, the vote might have well favored the pro-independence side, but maybe just at 55-60%. But then there would have been some miving parts in there that would be hard to predict.
 
This is a fairly complex subject, but in Latvia, the Popular Front in Latvia "snow-jobbed" a lot of second-generation Latvian Russian-speakers into supporting them initially, because the feeling was that something had to give. At least in Riga. And outside of Riga, well, politically speaking, in Soviet Latvia, outside of Riga and its suburbs, pretty much only Daugavpils mattered. Well, okay, Liepaja, maybe. The first-generation Russian-speakers living in Latvia were also generally speaking upwardly mobile, settling in the Western fringe of the Soviet Empire to better their lot. The exception to that rule was Soviet army officers, who upon retiring usually tried to make a beeline as far West as they could go. This actually created a problem for the Soviet government as these army officers were seen as a drain on the resources (retired males not being known for contributing to the industrial capacity of a nation), and so there were moves, IIRC, to stop them from going to Latvia and etc. in the '70s. Regardless, despite these outliers, plenty of Russian-speakers in Riga and etc. in Latvia saw some of the initial moves in a positive way. Though that too had its cross-currents, especially in the Jewish community, which got real mixed messages from the National Front. Part of the problem, then and now, is that the raising of the national consciousness in that part of the world runs into World War 2. As in, some of the fiercest nationalist opposition to Soviets during World War 2 were kissing cousins (and much worse) with Nazis, allying with them to fight the NKVD, the Red Army and also massacre Jews. The "rehabilitation" of these nationalist anti-Soviet and Nazi allied "heroes" caused, causes and will continue to cause, trauma in that part of the world for generations to come. So it was not cut and dry, and the "Russian community" was not monolithic and very much divided.

In Estonia, this issue was mitigated by a curious fact of language. If in Latvia, the Russian-speakers could sail through life (in Riga at least) not having to come into full body contact with the Latvian language and having to learn it much beyond high-school Spanish in California ("donde esta la biblioteca?"), in Estonia it was a bit different. Even in Tallinn, Estonian language was heard more and used more. Narva - a very different story.

But those were heady times and heady feelings of "Freedom!" were in the air. I don't think those percentages would have made much of a change. At least not in Latvia.
 
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