DNVP takes over Germany in the 1930s

What if the DNVP, and not the NSDAP, got traction in the late 1920s and took over Germany in the early 1930s? Would they pursue war like the Nazis? Would their war aims be more plausible?
 
What if the DNVP, and not the NSDAP, got traction in the late 1920s and took over Germany in the early 1930s? Would they pursue war like the Nazis? Would their war aims be more plausible?

If by some chance they manage to remain the senior partner in the alliance with NSDAP (say, Hitler slips in the bath in early 1933 and whoever follows him is more pliant) they are hardly going to be able to stay in power. They may try to start a limited war (against Poland over Danzig?) too early, get trounced... and you probably end up witha communist Germany since this would be exactly what KPD get the population support from 15% in 1932 to the 30-35% it would need to decide the power struggle.
 
Is it possible to have an earlier POD so they can get wider support, like the Fascists in other European countries during this time?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Is it possible to have an earlier POD so they can get wider support, like the Fascists in other European countries during this time?
Again, the DNVP of the 20s and 30s with the policies it had (being very aristocratic and quasi- monarchists) could not be a strong fascist movement. For that we need a DNVP that has early gone in another direction than historically, and under very different leadership.
 
What if the DNVP, and not the NSDAP, got traction in the late 1920s and took over Germany in the early 1930s? Would they pursue war like the Nazis? Would their war aims be more plausible?

"Took over"? The DNVP had 20.5% of the vote in 1924, but declined to 14.2% in 1928 and 7.0% in 1930. Through 1928, their platform included restoring the monarchy.

Let's say that the DNVP "takes" off in 1928-1930 - because, perhaps, the Nazis don't (Hitler dies of cancer or something).

OTL, in 1930 the NSDAP got 18.3%. We'll give most of that to the DNVP, which draws 19%, with a rump Nazi party led by the Strassers and Goebbels geting 6%. Other parties as OTL. That leaves the seats in the Reichstag as follows:

DVP ------ 30
BVP ------ 19
DBP ------- 6
KPD ------ 77
NSDAP ---- 37
DNVP ---- 111
SDP ----- 143
RPDM ----- 23
CNBLVP --- 26
Zentrum -- 68
CSVD ----- 14
VRP ------- 3
DSP ------ 20

Total --- 577

The DNVP would be in a strong position to form a coalition government. But the KPD, SPD, and Zentrum would have between them 288 seats, leaving 289 for the DNVP-led coalition, unless the DNVP could ally with Zentrum. The Zentrum would not join if the NSDAP was included, though. Also, under Goebbels and the Strassers, the NSDAP would be socialist and opposed by DVNP leader Hugenberg. (They hated him in return.)

Thatl leaves 320 seats for the DNVP coalition, so it could omit one or more of the minor parties.

Thus it is probable the DNVP takes power in 1930. This is a poisoned chalice, as it is unlikely the coalition can do anything to prevent the slide into depression.

But let us guess that Hugenberg consolidates most of the lesser parties under the DNVP label, and that the KPD/SPD split keeps the left out of power. The Nazis cause more violent trouble, and Hugenberg uses this as an excuse to suppress the NSDAP and KPD. The DVNP has the Stahlhelm veterans' militia as its strongarm squad.

By 1932, there are only four parties left

DVP ------ 50 seats
DNVP ---- 242
Zentrum -- 82
SDP ----- 203

Total --- 577

Hugenberg, much as Hitler did, extorts an "Enabling Act" from the Reichstag with the threat of violent takeover with Stahlhelm force, buying the agreement of the DVP and Zentrum with promises of moderation.

What would the Hugenberg regime do? Repudiate Versailles and begin German rearmament. It would however be on a much smaller scale than Hitler. There would be nationalist agitation, and a demand for the return of lands lost in WW I, and even of Germany's colonies.

Assuming Hugenberg stayed in power - he would abrogate the office of President when Hindenburg died, and probably adopt the title of Fuhrer. It should be noted that OTL, Hugenburg was included in the first Nazi cabinet, but was removed in part to his opposition to job-creating public works programs supported by all the other ministers. So it isn't clear that he could stay in power, as he wouldn't be doing much to remedy the crisis.

Hugenburg would be somewhat aggressive in foreign policy, but less than Hitler. He would not dare to "saber-rattle" as much, and almost certainly would not initiate any war involving another Great Power. He would be what has been called "Wilhelmine imperialist"'; seeking a Great Power role for Germany, and domination of eastern Europe, but not control of the world or any other messianic ambitions.

Opposed by France, Britain, Italy, and in some ways the USSR, Germany would remain mainly quiescent. I could see the annexation of Austria. I don't think he would threaten war to get the Sudetenland.
 
So what would domination of Eastern Europe look like? How would it be achieved? What relationship would there be with Eastern European Germans?
 
No one had the appetite for risks that Hitler had.

German policy prior to Hitler was to diplomatically cancel its obligations in Versailles, or to oumaneuver France diplomatically to isolate it from other potential anti-German powers.

Any DNVP leader is likely to do the same.

The major international issues Germany could achieve peacefully are:

1) Larger armed forces. This would have to be done with French permission, presumably through a combined anti-Bolshevik pact.

2) Eventual Anschluss with Austria. Probably not feasible for at least a decade, maybe two.

3) Agreement with Poland over Danzig. With a less insane leader, the Poles might be willing to agree to Danzig being annexed to Germany and some kind of guaranteed land access once it built a large enough seaport at Gdynia and Germany agreed to not seek to revise its borders.

I don't see any other German leader risking unilateral actions that Hitler did. So this has to be done diplomatically, presumably by working with the British. If Germany can split Britain from France diplomatically, it could achieve a lot.

Significant breakthroughs might be made once the Spanish Civil War happens and Stalin begins sending people there. It could spark a red scare that causes a partial reconciliation.
 
No one had the appetite for risks that Hitler had.


Yeah.

I agree with several of your proposals, but I doubt the Poles would come to terms about Danzig. The relations could be much less strained, but for Danzig to go it would take a miracle.

I don't see any other German leader risking unilateral actions that Hitler did. So this has to be done diplomatically, presumably by working with the British. If Germany can split Britain from France diplomatically, it could achieve a lot.


Which is likely. Just consider the London Naval Agreement and various British entreaties.

Significant breakthroughs might be made once the Spanish Civil War happens and Stalin begins sending people there. It could spark a red scare that causes a partial reconciliation.

The other bad boy around is Italy at this time, with its Ethiopian adventure (as well as its involvement in Spain, too). Historically, France and Britain gave Italy a slap on the wrist about that, because they hoped to use Mussolini to contain Germany. In this scenario, it's not a given that Mussolini gets to send troops and supplies through Suez.
If the German government plays its cards well in this context, they may get to be on the good guys' side in the LoN, and a restitution of some unimportant former German colony as a protectorate is not out of the question.

Coming now to Eastern Europe, germany could probalby gain deals with Czechoslovakia and others for a protected status for its minorities. But apart from that, I see the sort of under-the-counter political subversion game that in OTL was played by Stalin (through the Comintern), by Mussolini (say his funding of the nationalist Croatians and French right-wing extremists) and to some extent by the Nazis too (they didn't just sponsor parallel Nazi parties within German minorities; Himmler, for instance, supported the Legion in Romania).
 
Top