Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)

Chapter 90 - The South American Cold War
The South American Cold War
One of the first acts of President John Hay was to cut off support for Pedro Augusto, as he viewed the entire Brazilian Civil War as an incredibly dumb waste of resources. The British-backed Peixoto quickly took advantage of the weak Prince, who was already unpopular and was now deprived of his primary foreign backer. In a dramatic march into Southern Brazil, Peixoto's Federalists crushed Pedro's army, which quickly collapsed and resorted to guerilla warfare. Pedro himself fled to Europe, where he fell into mental illness and was soon confined to an Austrian mental asylum. However, the fact that the Federalists and Pedro Augusto had spent the entirety of World War I bashing into each other (as essentially an Anglo-American proxy war) meant that Empress Isabel more or less had several years to simply build up strength. with generous French support (a nation also not involved in World War I). The Royalists made their offensive almost immediately after the flight of Pedro Augusto, battering an exhausted Federalist Army. Moreover, as the sole major royal claimant, the cause of Brazilian monarchism had unified behind her. Peixoto was a gifted organizer and a tough military leader, but many of those who rallied behind him were opportunistic elites - those same opportunists began abandoning his cause as superior Royalist armies barreled down towards Rio de Janeiro.

In the end, the cause was simply doomed when the ailing Peixoto simply died of old age during the Royalist offensive. This sparked a panic as Peixoto was one of the last major military leaders left in the Federalist movement (as Fonseca and Constant had also died). Most of those left were coffee barons and other business types. The collapse of the Federalist Army meant that almost all of the British aid to the Federalists would prove useless, as most of that equipment simply found its way into the victorious Royalists. The de facto head of the Brazilian Federalists, Quintino Bocaiuva, fled from Brazil into nearby Argentina, which gave him political asylum. The Argentinians, who had supported the Federalists, and the Peruvo-Bolivians, who had supported Pedro Augusto alongside their American allies, both feared reprisals from the victorious royalists. The two nations, under the eminent Argentine Estanislao Zeballos, quickly hammered out a pact with each other, which did nothing to cool down the situation. The victorious Empire of Brazil penned a similar agreement with Paraguay and Chile. As a result, two mutually hostile blocs emerged in South America. Both Peru-Bolivia and Argentina had extensive territorial disputes with Paraguay, while Chile had disputes with both Peru-Bolivia and Argentina. Uruguay's struggles between the Colorados and Blancos quickly became a proxy cold war between Argentina and Brazil, as the South American Naval Arms Race continued.

The Civil War would lead to lasting trauma in Brazilian society. Although the Brazilian monarchy seems to have rallied behind a sustainable platform of racial egalitarianism, economic interventionism, and monarchism, it proved remarkably unpopular among Brazil's liberals, who saw the regime as hopelessly backward (especially in its rejection of scientific racist ideas popular around the world at the time). They also believed Brazil was losing ground to Argentina, which was quickly becoming a major immigrant destination due to how unattractive the United States had become for so many Catholics. Brazilian liberals typically ignored that Brazilian-aligned Chile was also undergoing an immigration boom. In addition, Brazil was probably receiving nearly as many immigrants as Argentina, it was just proportionally smaller because Brazil was a much larger nation than Argentina.

Interestingly, the South American Naval Arms Race led to an explosion of heavy industry in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina, all of whom began spending large amounts of tax revenues on constructing local heavy industries that could construct the ships each side required. Only Peru-Bolivia did not, largely because it had such generous support from the United States (to whom it was still heavily indebted towards). Waving the banner of nationalism, tax-hostile landlords and coffee planters agreed to higher taxes on themselves to fuel the industrial expansion necessary to build the modern battleships each nation required to one-up its hostile neighbors. Unfortunately for all nations involved, it seemed inevitable that the South American Cold War would eventually turn hot.
 
It is weird to think that liberal Republicans were less progressive than a monarchy.
It's a blast from the past (an earlier chapter), but besides Haiti, the worst place to live in Latin America right now is probably the liberal dictatorship in Central America, which 1) brutally exploits indigenous peasants as unfree labor in the name of modernity/private poverty/free trade and 2) is increasingly becoming a haven for "Redeemers" who don't like the way the Confederate States is developing.
 
What's William Jennings Bryan up to?
I agree with this. What IS he doing now?
Well, he's 36 right now. He entered politics in 1888 giving speeches and was elected in the 1890 landslide. ITL, 1890 was a bad year for the GOP too, so I suppose WJB is elected on the Anti-Oriental Ticket as a Congressman in Nebraska. He probably supports the AO ticket in 1892, survives the 1894 elections (it's a good year for AO), probably backs Cleveland for peace in 1896 and barely survives the election himself, and is probably now politically homeless since he realizes that he doesn't like the National Democrats that much either.
 
Chapter 91 - The Confederate Presidential Election of 1897
The Confederate Presidential Election of 1897
Although there was a third candidate in the race continuing the same political line as former President Morgan and openly courting redeemers (while rejecting violence), they were largely not considered a major contender for the presidency. The simple reality of the first-past-the-post system heavily discouraged third parties, which encouraged more pragmatic politicians to rally either behind two of the major developing political camps in the Confederate States - the Nationals, who had rallied behind incumbent president Patrick Cleburne in hopes that he would serve a full term, and the Prohibitionists, who had rallied behind famed general James Longstreet, who had resigned his commission in the army to prepare for a presidential run. Although agreeing with the Mahone-Cleburne line in many ways, Longstreet found them excessively "corrupt" and not willing to make several of the social reforms supported by Longstreet (largely motivated by Protestant Christianity). What was unique about the 1897 election in comparison to past elections was that neither candidate really had a monopoly on any group in society. Certainly, Longstreet did better among upper-middle class protestants while Cleburne did much better among Catholics. However, black voters split only narrowly for Cleburne, not to mention that black voter turnout was rather low. Although black voters generally weren't explicitly disenfranchised or barred from the polls, no major group in Confederate society was really going out of their way to encourage black suffrage. In many ways, a great degree of chauvinism dominated Confederate political thinking - it was widely believed by Confederate politicos that black voters would "just vote like their former masters."

Indeed, 1897 would be the first Confederate political election that wasn't a massive landslide. Before 1897, the closest election had been between Mahone and Morgan, because Morgan had managed to win one state and almost win two others. 1897 was probably the first "normal" Confederate election between two major contenders that were relatively evenly locked, despite the fact that it probably had one of the least ramifications in Confederate political history. Instead of great debates over slavery, internal improvements, and foreign policy, the Confederate Election of 1897 was largely fought over a handful of other issues, namely the prohibition of alcohol, civil service reform, and the gold standard. Longstreet supported all three - Cleburne opposed all three. In contrast, the two candidates largely agreed on racial issues (they both sought to minimize the issue), foreign policy (including the war in Haiti), immigration, and other hot-button issues.

The Confederacy had climbed up from being one of the poorest nations in the New World during the nadir of the Spanish-Confederate War and Provisional Rebellion to being more or less average, hard-fought gains that neither political side sought to endanger. Rural illiteracy and disease (especially malaria) was rampant, but modest but growing investments in internal improvements and public education had more or less closed the gap between the CSA and Mexico. After the end of the war, food conditions had more or less been stable through the entire Mahone-Cleburne administrations. Indeed, the abject refusal of the CSA to become involved in World War I was largely a result of the nation having profited so handsomely from both American and British investment.

In the end, Cleburne won North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, many of them being former provisional states where the local residents revered the Mahone-Cleburne political line for crushing the provisional states (the attempted provo secession was widely unpopular among actual voters in those states and expanding the suffrage doomed the political futures of almost every politician who supported the provo rebellion). In contrast, Longstreet won Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, and Florida, where his platform of anti-corruption and prohibition proved popular. The closest state was ironically Alabama, the former political epicenter of the redeemer movement, which opted narrowly for Longstreet, deciding the election. Considering the extremely poor history of Confederate presidential transitions as well as a widespread belief that the Mahone-Cleburne line was rather authoritarian (a natural assumption given that Mahone took power in a coup), the Confederacy was most surprised when Cleburne conceded the election and congratulated his opponent. Longstreet allies similarly took control of Congress, as their support was generally better geographically distributed than Cleburne (who typically ran up heavy numbers in smaller precincts).

Although on paper Longstreet's agenda wasn't very aggressive, they would prove to be remarkably acrimonious in the Confederate political system. Even though the political structure and power elites had changed dramatically in the CSA, politics remained as predictably loud and rambunctious as they had always been.
 
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Never before have I read a TL that makes the Union even MORE racist after Confederate secession.
Didn't the US in Turtledove's "American Empire" series clamp down hard on black immigration from the Confederacy?

Well, it was basically a turbo Gilded Age. Two decades of the Supreme Court striking down almost all economic regulation (1872-1892).
That's a bit contradictory with the anti-immigration laws isn't it? Big business _wanted_ cheap foreign labor that they could exploit and wouldn't fraternize easily with long-settled Americans, and a growing population for growing markets. (White immigrants only, of course, but most of them were OTL anyway).

Edit: some 20 million immigrants came to the US 1890-1920, roughly the entire population of turn of the century Confederacy and the majority were from Eastern and Southern Europe. I don't think Confederates looking for work are going to compensate for the losses a "Germanic Europeans only, please" policy will cause.
 
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Didn't the US in Turtledove's "American Empire" series clamp down hard on black immigration from the Confederacy?



That's a bit contradictory with the anti-immigration laws isn't it? Big business _wanted_ cheap foreign labor that they could exploit and wouldn't fraternize easily with long-settled Americans, and a growing population for growing markets. (White immigrants only, of course, but most of them were OTL anyway).

Edit: some 20 million immigrants came to the US 1890-1920, roughly the entire population of turn of the century Confederacy and the majority were from Eastern and Southern Europe. I don't think Confederates looking for work are going to compensate for the losses a "Germanic Europeans only, please" policy will cause.
Well, if there's less workforce available, then industry might just end up expanding more slowly. The US economy would therefore be a little bit more agricultiral and a little bit slower growing than OTL. At some point, factories might decide to stop waiting for a trickle Confederates to come North to them and just set up operations to where the cheap labor already was.
 
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Okay, I haven't caught up on this timeline completely, I'm still on chapter 67, but I have a question. Why did the Qing get the Shan states when they were still owned by Siam rather than Burma at the time you have the UK annexing Burma and the Qing annexing Kachin?
 
Well, if there's less workforce available, then industry might just end up expanding more slowly. The US economy would therefore be a little bit more agricultiral and a little bit slower growing than OTL. At some point, factories might decide to stop waiting for a trickle Confederates to come North to them and just set up operations to where the cheap labor already was.
Yeah, I think that's really what just happens. Confederate immigrants are nowhere enough to make up for the loss of Catholic immigrants - so it means less labor is available and American industry expands slower. It also means wages are higher.

Okay, I haven't caught up on this timeline completely, I'm still on chapter 67, but I have a question. Why did the Qing get the Shan states when they were still owned by Siam rather than Burma at the time you have the UK annexing Burma and the Qing annexing Kachin?
Because of my ignorance. haha, thanks for the catch, I will go fix this right now.
 
How are the Asian immigrants in the CSA treated?
I don't think there's been any laws mentioned which target them, so I think most are just Chinese expellees from the United States who settled on rice plantations on the banks of the Mississippi. They're just kind of... There. Not discriminated against too harshly, but not holding any political power either. Like the Confederate Jews, a very odd minority with a small presence and that's about it.
 
On another note, will Italian and Polish-American communities be a lot smaller? Will Brazil and Canada see more Polish people, and Brazil and Argentina even more Italians as a result?
 
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