I really like how you've approached the CSA in this TL. I've never liked ones that have them immediately collapse or somehow dominate the world as I feel both are quite unrealistic. Instead I think you've done a good job at portraying a likely scenario for a relatively successful CSA. I also love how you made Bragg the hero of the South, that was awesome. Plus Hohenzollern Spain is always cool to see.
Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)
- Thread starter TastySpam
- Start date
So the CSA finally tries to make the "Golden Circle" a reality. And it's already of to a rough start and going to get worse. And I agree with Marse Lee, it's great to see a CSA timeline that showcases all the problems the CSA has without them collapsing immediately.
I wonder, what is the states of the Confederate and Spanish navies? With a lack of industry neither of those two are going to have top-of-the-line ships, so both will be slow to get into the game of turreted ironclads. I wonder if a Spanish naval victory might be (part of) what makes 1985 go horribly wrong.
I wonder, what is the states of the Confederate and Spanish navies? With a lack of industry neither of those two are going to have top-of-the-line ships, so both will be slow to get into the game of turreted ironclads. I wonder if a Spanish naval victory might be (part of) what makes 1985 go horribly wrong.
I mean, the CSA doesn't have to collapse at all. It might have some internal turmoil and the like. It might also have a constitutional convention one day to address the MANY issues with their current one. But I can easily see it surviving as a relatively successful nation that can hold its own all the way to the modern day.
Some really good updates here and interesting to see how history's being effected with all that's been going on. Nice to see an Indian famine being fought against, even if the death toll was still as high as it was. Things sound as if they're about to go bad for the Confederacy, it's really a good thing for them that the US is too busy in South America to bother them right now.
Chapter 37 - The 1884 US Elections and the End of the Pacific War
The 1884 US Elections and the End of the Pacific War
Although the Great Pacific War was coming to an end, the war had proven extremely unpopular. Bristow hadn't started it, but he had spent the entire time looking for an end to the war. In November 1884, the troops on both side of the fields had actually settled down into a makeshift armistice, but no official peace had been yet signed. The contours of the peace seemed increasingly obvious however. The Chileans would probably get half of the disputed lands they demanded - namely the Bolivian Atacama, but not the Peruvian Tarapaca. However, as pushed by the United States (who partly feared that a landlocked Bolivia would default on all of its debts to the United States), the Chileans would allow the Peruvians and Bolivians to actually implement their agreement (signed before the American entrance in the war) to create a United States of Peru and Bolivia. The American payment plan was that it would collect a significant share of the profits from the nitrate mines in the disputed territories. The Peruvians and Bolivians thought that this would stop the Americans from giving away of the nitrate mines in the peace negotiations. This had backfired on them, forcing them into an unhappy marriage. As Bolivia had lost its desert territories, it would have almost certainly defaulted had its overall debt not been amalgamated with the Peruvian debt.
Amusingly, neither the Peruvian nor Bolivian leaders had actually expected the union agreement to ever come into place - it was largely just a measure to create Peru-Bolivia solidarity during the war. However, the fact that the Americans had bargained for international acceptance of this document kind of locked the Peruvian and Bolivian governments into place, forcing them into a union that neither of them wanted. In exchange for returning the Peruvian Tarapaca and Arica, extra war reparations would be given from Peru-Bolivia to Chile. Of course, Peru-Bolivia was bankrupt, so the reparations were paid by the United States, who would then collect on that debt from the nitrate mines of Peru-Bolivia. Of course, the Chileans also agreed to compensate American investors who had any property or investments confiscated during the war, which meant that the Americans didn't actually have to front very much capital at all. American diplomats were aware that Peru-Bolivia was very much a marriage of convenience and under the urging of Vice President Blaine, the American troops stationed in Peru-Bolivia were to stay indefinitely, in theory to help keep "order" and "defend Peruvo-Bolivian territorial sovereignty." In practice, they were there to ensure a politically stable Peru-Bolivia paid up on time.
The National Union Party was hungry for a victory. Recriminations between the Butler wing of the National Union Party and the more moderate wing continued. Butler ran again, but fell short of an absolute majority, forcing dozens of ballots against various competitors, which failed to settle the issue. With foreign policy dominated the convention, a compromise was eventually brokered. One of the most senior members of the party, the 73-year old Cassius Clay of Kentucky, was selected by the rather large Kentucky delegation at the DNC. Clay was a close friend to Lincoln, a former fervent abolitionist, and a long-serving US diplomat. His Vice-Presidential candidate quickly became the fiery Thomas Ewing of Ohio, the 53-year old former Union general who was an outspoken supporter of Butler.
The election wasn't close. The closest state in the election was actually New York, which was closely called for Bristow after several days, but it actually had no impact on the election. The National Union Party under Clay had scored a convincing victory, sealing their elections by winning Ewing's native Ohio and Illinois, the original home state of Abraham Lincoln, both by around 2%. Interestingly, had the National Unionists lost Ohio, it would have created a perfect 147-147 split in the electoral college, sending the election into the House of Representatives. However, the National Union Party had a majority of the Senate and a majority of House state delegations, which meant the same result would have been confirmed. The Republicans were divided, as one of Bristow and Blaine's leading efforts during their presidency was passing Civil Service Reforms, which deeply divided the Republican Party. One reason the National Unionists almost won New York was because Roscoe Conkling, the powerful Senator from New York, refused to support Bristow's re-election campaign.
Unusual for a one-term President defeated for re-election, the historical consensus on Benjamin Bristow was actually very positive. Although his foreign policy remained extremely controversial, Bristow apparently from the very start attempted to push back on the most hardcore advocates of imperialism. At home, the Bristow presidency was an era of reforms. Indeed, under Attorney General Marshall Jewell, the Bristow presidency energetically prosecuted railroad trusts, in line with the Anti-Trust Act that President Sherman had signed in the waning days of his presidency. Like Sherman, President Bristow largely resisted nativist attempts to exclude non-white immigrants from the United States, which further alienated Westerners (deeply concerned about relatively small levels of immigrants from Qing China). In addition, Bristow also left the nation with a largely balanced budget, especially as the Great Pacific War actually more or less paid for itself. If Bristow had lost re-election, it was largely due to issues completely out of his control - namely exhaustion with decades of Republican rule in a two-party system, as well as an unpopular war that he hadn't played any role in starting.
After one of the roughest opposition spells in American history, the National Union was back in charge, controlling both the Congress and the Presidency. That however, left one problem. What on earth were they supposed to do, now that they were in charge?
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Peru-Bolivia sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, the sort of thing that could only be spawned out of a convoluted great power scheme to get debts paid. ITTL I’m guessing the American intervention into the War of the Pacific will end up being one of the “forgotten wars”, partly due to the confederate disaster in Cuba.
Chapter 38 - The Golden Circle and the United Provinces
The Golden Circle and the United Provinces
The Great Pacific War was not the only war engulfing Latin America. When the Imperials declared victory in the Mexican Civil War in 1868, ending a 17-year old civil war, many Republican die-hards fled to the Soconusco region in Chiapas, a disputed territory between Mexico and Guatemala, hoping to link up with Guatemalan rebels, vaguely allied to Juarez, who were fighting both the Mexican Empire as well as the entrenched Conservative government of Guatemala. By 1871, they had succeeded, with the forces of Justo Rufino Barrios and Mariano Escobedo (the Mexican Republican general) entering the capital. The Mexican Empire largely did not intervene, simply being glad that the Guatemalan struggle gave them time to continue stabilizing the nation, opening up international relations with America, France, and the United Kingdom. Escobedo died in the siege of Guatemala (possibly assassinated by Barrios), who was less interested in continuing the fight for Mexico, but rather had his own grand ambitions. Taking control of the combined Guatemalan and Mexican Republican armies, Barrios implemented an ambitious agenda.
Between 1844 and 1865, Guatemala was ruled by Rafael Carrera, who was well-known as a friend to Guatemala's indigenous people and staunchly supported by the Catholic Church. As a result, under the Conservative government, most of the land in the nation belonged to the Church and to indigenous villages. The Barrios government aimed to change this. His armies openly attacked and massacred indigenous villages in the thousands, distributing their lands to key officers who had supported the Liberal Revolution. Indigenous lands were converted into massive coffee plantations, with natives captured at gunpoint and forced to work as "rural servants" on the plantations. Barrios also treated the Catholic Church the same, seizing their lands and defrocking many priests.[1] Many Confederates, rather disappointed in their own government, saw Barrios as a true visionary, a scourge of both Indian savages, a planter at heart, a liberal revolutionary, and someone who was driving the Papists out of Guatemala. Barrios's regime quickly gained the support of many Confederate intellectuals and elites, who often offered advice and assistance. After rewarding all of its supporters, Barrios began to invite foreign (but only white) settlers who were willing to oversee the Indian "servants." The overwhelming majority of people who took the deal were Confederates, often the second-sons of prominent planters who wanted their own plantation. However, many of them were also proponents of the "Golden Circle" ideal, who quickly realizing that their own government wasn't actually going to invade Central America to establish a Slave Empire, decided that this was their next-best option. In doing so, they often overlooked elements of the Barrios agenda they found rather odd, such as the creation of universal public education. In some ways though, Confederate politics actually became more pragmatic as the most fanatical Confederates left. One example of a Confederate who left was Clement Clay, who fled the CSA after his failed coup against Nathan Bedford Forrest.
Although the average Guatemalan (who was indigenous) suffered greatly, a massive amount of riches accrued to both Barrios, his supporters, and his new friends from abroad. Guatemalan "servants" weren't slaves, but Barrios's "Day Laborer" Laws gave them a status somewhere between slavery and serfdom, with laws allowing plantation owners to force them move to the plantation to work, use corporal punishment against any laborer with debt (which was almost all of them due to the laws forcing them to move said they had to at their own expense), and largely suspended individual liberties for laborers in debt.[3] The Guatemalan Army quickly became the most powerful in Central America and in 1880, President Barrios from Guatemala, President Luis Bogran from Honduras, and President Rafael Zaldivar from El Salvador signed an agreement to re-establish the Federal Republic of Central America (though Zaldivar was not actually a supporter, but rather just biding his time). Nicaragua and Costa Rica responded in panic, sending a message to the United States begging them to uphold the Monroe doctrine. However, already bogged down in the Great Pacific War, the United States politely declined.[4]
Similarly, Mexico failed to intervene because of the "turno" system. In short, it was generally understood that the Liberals under Porfiro Diaz and the Conservatives under Miguel Miramon would alternate power, both political parties being dominated by wealthy Mexican landlords, though the former had more capitalists and the latter more clergy. The two parties largely agreed on most things, so it was generally understood that under the Imperial Mexican system, major decisions had to be agreed on by both parties. Diaz wanted to intervene in Central America, while Miramon didn't want to simply because of the budgetary costs. Although Imperial Mexico grew wealthier, paralysis characterized its foreign policy.
One country however, clearly took sides. The Rector administration, filled with sympathizers and supporters of Clay, threw its full support behind Barrios. The Confederacy turned over many of its surplus Civil War weapons (unneeded as the CSA was updating to the new Bragg Rifle) to the Guatemalan Army. President Zaldivar of El Salvador decided it was time to openly oppose Barrios's grand ambition, however, overt Confederate support for Barrios meant that he simply tried to remain neutral. As a result, the Federal Army marched upon Nicaragua at the climactic Battle of Tegucigalpa, before an army of Guatemalans, Hondurans, and Confederate volunteers crushed the Nicaraguans and brutally sacked the city. Guatemalan forces overran Nicaragua, giving its indigenous people the same treatment that the indigenous people of Guatemala suffered, enriching elite landowners in Nicaragua. Zaldivar was immediately overthrown in a coup, with El Salvador joining the new United Provinces.
With more wealth (aka plunder), power, and momentum at their disposal, the UP troops quickly became unstoppable. Completely alone, Costa Rica held out for several months against the UP Army, but quickly surrendered in order to prevent their capital city from being torched like Tegulcigalpa. President Luis Bogran of Honduras was shot during the siege - some suspect in the back by forces loyal to Clement Clay, who was then hacked to death with machetes in a revenge plot by Bogran partisans. This left Barrios, as Supreme Military Commander of the United Provinces of Central America, the undisputed leader of the new nation. Although several foreign powers considered intervening, Barrios kept them all at bay, promising to respect foreign investments. In fact, he promised to be more open to foreign investment than the Conservative governments he was overthrowing, pushing several countries (most importantly the United Kingdom) from a position of veiled hostility to a position of genuine cautious optimism.
Confederate intellectuals were incredibly jubilant, feting Barrio's success as the "true Knight of the Golden Circle," though this may have been an over-exaggeration. Although Confederate military advisers and settlers were common, the large majority of the new planter class in Central America was Central American, with Confederate planters being about equal in number to Mexican planters. Regardless, Confederate elites became further convinced that they were on the right side of history and that Barrios was their man. This was despite the fact that Barrios didn't share much ideologically with them. President Barrios was not an aficionado of planter society, in fact, he was obsessed with "modern, industrial society." His plan was actually to take the profits he was brutally extracting from the native peoples and invest it in creating a large industrial base, run by and for his Central American Army. As a result, Barrios has often been called by modern historians as the first "industrial dictator" of the modern era.
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[1] This is largely OTL.
[2] OTL, they were mostly German settlers. ITL, they're mostly Confederate, especially with a larger German colonial empire.
[3] Also OTL.
[4] OTL, the USA stood against Barrios. ITL, they don't do anything.
Excellent chapter. Latin America is developing nicely.
Concerning the larger German (Prussian) colonial empire, this includes the Congo (co-governed by the Prussians and the Belgians) and what else? Has anything been mentioned or is there an upcoming update that shows the situation in Europe and abroad.
The concept of a stronger France, a Prussia that is allied to Russia and leads the North German Confederation to being effectively led by Prussia is very fascinating. I love competing German States.
Keep up the great work!
Concerning the larger German (Prussian) colonial empire, this includes the Congo (co-governed by the Prussians and the Belgians) and what else? Has anything been mentioned or is there an upcoming update that shows the situation in Europe and abroad.
The concept of a stronger France, a Prussia that is allied to Russia and leads the North German Confederation to being effectively led by Prussia is very fascinating. I love competing German States.
Keep up the great work!
The confederate empire of evil grows. I'm looking forwards to the supposed disaster that will happen in 1885.
Would the monroe doctrine apply in this case though, since all parties involved come from the western hemisphere?
Would the monroe doctrine apply in this case though, since all parties involved come from the western hemisphere?
Yeah, I think it's just the Congo right now. It's technically co-owned, but the Germans are really providing most of the manpower. Really, the co-ownership is kind of a ruse. There's probably other stuff. For example, the OTL trade of Heligoland and Zanzibar probably isn't happening, so the Prussians are probably getting Kenya too.
I should update Europe.
Tbqf, the Confederates really just think it's their empire, but they're not running the show at all. The Confederates are cheering and screaming about accomplishing the Golden Circle, but it's more Banana Republic-style imperialism than the actual Golden Circle idea (which was never going to happen).
The Monroe Doctrine already kind of collapsed in Mexico. And the Confederacy isn't directly involved - it's mostly a mix of diplomatic support and private individuals/settlers helping out the Unionists.
Chapter 39 - Zulu!
Zulu!
The incident that would ultimately bring down Gladstone's ministry began in a land most British had never heard of before and a war that nobody in Britain itself wanted. Gladstone was deeply suspicious of Britain's military adventures in South Africa and the local colonial officers were skeptical of Gladstone, especially after he had failed to reform the Cardwell army reforms. When Henry Bartle Frere sacked the Cape Town responsible government of John Charles Molteno in an attempt to force the various British colonies to unite in a South Africa Confederation with the Boer Republics, the Liberals in London were outraged. Molteno was extremely popular with the Liberal caucus and Gladstone had Frere sacked immediately, to be replaced with Sir Garnet Wolseley. Frere's close ally, General Chelmsford, didn't give up on the project. Hiding his orders from the central government, Chelmsford took a small army, marching into the Transkei and subjugating the Xhosa. Frere was also interim governor before Wolseley could arrive, so before the Wolseley could arrive, Frere sent the King of the Zulus, Cetshwayo, an ultimatum that was obviously impossible. When Cetshwayo was unable to comply, 18,000 British troops and auxilliaries (mostly auxiliaries) under Chelmsford invaded.
The invasion force was split into three columns to march upon the Zulu capital of Ulundi. The central column was totally outmaneuvered, surrounded, and destroyed at Isandlwana, with all supplies lost. Chelmsford only barely escaped, and realizing that his career and prestige might be ended by this catastrophe, attempted to keep Governor Wolseley (who just arrived) out of the loop. The Zulu followed up their triumph at Isandlwana at Intome, Hlobane, and Rorke's Drift. Although they were far technologically inferior to British troops, the British forces were disorganized and demoralized, enough to cause defeats due to superior Zulu maneuvering. The fall of Rorke's Drift was particularly devastating, because it cut off Charles Pearson's right column off from the British-controlled Natal, stranding it in the middle of Zulu territory. The left column under Evelyn Wood had been battered, but survived, while the central column under Chelmsford had been totally destroyed.
King Cetshwayo was eager to actually make peace and gave explicit orders to his troops not to attack Natal. Even the successful attack on Rorke's Drift was totally unauthorized by the King, simply out of fear that it was so close to Natal, being the location where the British crossed the Buffalo River. Regardless, it had worked splendidly. Upon this final catastrophe, Wolseley intervened. He ordered that peace negotiations be commenced immediately with Cetshwayo. In perhaps the greatest humiliation of the war, the entire army under Pearson surrendered into Zulu custody, being disarmed and then safely escorted out of Zululand. The Agreement between Wolseley and Cetshwayo was remarkably generous to the Zulu. Natal was designated a demilitarized zone except in the case of local revolt, while Cetshwayo promised to protect missionaries and converts from reprisal attacks (Cetshwayo had allowed them in Zululand, but they were often subject to private violence). The Zulu Army was to disband, but as they were a short-term militia system, this was viewed as acceptable to the Zulu. Chelmsford demanded the miltiia system be abolished, but Wolseley did not.
The British largely viewed the Zulu relatively sympathetically, causing both Frere and Chelmsford to retire in disgrace. However, there was widespread horror in Britain at the lack of preparedness of the British Army, something deftly used by Benjamin Disraeli in the 1880 election. As a result, 1880 was a landslide victory for the Conservatives. Their first action was taking up those army reforms that had failed under Gladstone and instituting them. Wolseley was interestingly attacked by name on the campaign trail by the Conservatives, but when they took power, they failed to sack him. Indeed, his reputation was still sterling and many Conservatives also saw Wolseley's wisdom. Wolseley was less concerned about the Zulu and more concerned about preventing violence with the Boers, who grew increasingly angry over Frere's annexation of the Transvaal in 1877.
Citing the supposed military strength of the Zulu, Wolseley impressed on Boer leaders that they had to unite or that the Zulu would severely threaten the Boers. Instead of pushing for a South Africa Confederation (deeply unpopular at the time), Wolesely actually signed a pact with Boer leaders such as Paul Kruger that the British would abide by the Sand River agreement by never pushing for a pact unless it was demanded by the locals. Wolseley understood that a confederation actually increased chances of a second war with the Zulu, and dropped the idea completely. In 1881, the Colony of Transvaal was given responsible government. Transvaal would largely remain a remote, autonomous colony of the British Empire simply because it was only barely connected to the Cape Colony by a small border. Instead, its largest neighbor was the Boer Orange Free State, which went to great lengths to keep good relations with the British colonies on three of its sides (Cape, Natal, and Transvaal), because its fourth side bordered the Zulu Kingdom that it feared.
Although British colonial officers were extremely happy with how they salvaged a horrible situation in South Africa in order to largely establish peaceful and prosperous relations with both the Boers (both inside and outside the British Empire) as well as the Zulu (though not the Xhosa, as the Colony of Natal remained a problem spot for the British Empire), the "setback" in the Zulu Empire was a disaster for Britain's prestige abroad. One man who had feverishly followed news of the Zulu War was Napoleon IV of France, who received daily reports just because he was fascinated in the war and with colonies in general.[1] However, the crushing defeat of the British Army by the Zulu made him believe that Britain was simply a paper tiger, which would have grave consequences in Egypt the following year.
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[1] As you might know, the OTL Napoleon IV died in the Zulu Wars.
OOF.
OTL Rorke's Drift was a damn near-run thing. In a world where Britain doesn't realize that 'discipline the army' is a good idea, a curb-stomp in the Zulu's favor sounds about right.
A crushing defeat in the Anglo-Zulu war is one heck of a humiliation alright. Though Nappy the Fourth might be getting over-eager. Even if the British army is in trouble, their Navy still rules the waves!
Seems like the Brits were able to salvage a major diplomatic victory out of this military defeat though. Good for them!
Actually, what are Anglo-CSA relations like? I would guess the CSA is unpopular due to both maintaining slavery and being a competitor in the cotton trade.
OTL Rorke's Drift was a damn near-run thing. In a world where Britain doesn't realize that 'discipline the army' is a good idea, a curb-stomp in the Zulu's favor sounds about right.
A crushing defeat in the Anglo-Zulu war is one heck of a humiliation alright. Though Nappy the Fourth might be getting over-eager. Even if the British army is in trouble, their Navy still rules the waves!
Seems like the Brits were able to salvage a major diplomatic victory out of this military defeat though. Good for them!
Actually, what are Anglo-CSA relations like? I would guess the CSA is unpopular due to both maintaining slavery and being a competitor in the cotton trade.
Chapter 40 - The Urabi Rebellion
The Urabi Rebellion
The revolt of Ahmed Urabi in Egypt, over claims that European officers were being paid far more than native Egyptians (true), put a heavy strain on relations between Egypt and France. After an anti-Christian riot engulfed Alexandria, Urabi's forces dispersed the rioters and took control of the city. Conflating the anti-Christian porgrom with Urabi's revolt, the French were outraged and ready to intervene, but the British were quite skeptical. Prime Minister Disraeli, unlike Gladstone, was a firm supporter of the notion that the Ottoman Empire would be Britain's bulwark against Russia. Losing friends in Constantinople would endanger British India in his mind, which was why Disraeli was so incredibly outraged at Gladstone giving Russia so many concessions in the Great Eastern War. The Ottomans distrusted the motives of the French in Egypt, especially because their intervention seemed so religious-based. The Ottomans feared that the French might even try to expand their influence in the Levant. It had taken Disraeli endless trips to repair Anglo-Ottoman relations, and he was not about to allow one rebellion in Egypt endanger them. In contrast, the French moved quickly to try to restore Tewfik Pasha. Much to the horror of local British admirals, Disraeli directly ordered them to stand down and engage in no hostilities. In contrast, the French Navy began immediately bombing Alexandria, much to the consternation of Anglo-Ottoman forces.
The French invasion quickly defeated Urabi's rebellion, an invasion that took place even as Britain and the Ottomans vociferously condemned the French intervention. Many in Europe felt that the two powers were teetering towards war, though Disraeli wasn't willing to go to war over Egypt, so French and British diplomats weren't particularly worried. Moreover, Disraeli didn't actually mind that much, since the Sudan was rapidly becoming a headache due to the Mahdists, and it was fine to heap that disaster onto the French. However, British public opinion was outraged. In reaction, Anglo-Ottoman troops directly moved into the Suez, occupying the Canal Zone, once it was clear that the French were going to occupy almost all of Egypt. Unlike Britain, French colonialism had a much stronger sense of a civilizing mission, and it immediately became clear that French troops were planning on staying for the long-haul. Although the Pasha appeared to still rule Egypt, it immediately became clear to most observers that he was a puppet.
In theory, the Khedivate of Egypt was part of the Ottoman Empire, but the French made themselves so comfortable, they openly began dispatching a dual system of French and Egyptian government, declaring that Egypt had become a protectorate of the French Empire. The Ottomans were even more outraged by this explicit detachment of Egypt. Disraeli said that they would support the Ottomans financially and materially in case of a war with France, but not directly. Russia, seeing another way to hobble their hated rival, openly cheered on French. In contrast, North Germany condemned France, though North Germany condemned France for everything and it was not as if they had much leg to stand on in the colonial game - stories of Crown Prince Wilhelm's Congo Free State began leaking out, horrifying many Europeans. In the end, like in Luxembourg, the French got their way in Egypt.
However, Disraeli died in early 1884 from disease, which had receded when he spent time in opposition, but came back again under the stresses of government. A divided Tory Party immediately split into camps favoring the Lord Salisbury and the Earl of Iddesleigh. Fearing that continual division would look terrible in government, the two agreed on a compromise candidate to lead the party. They picked a third dark horse who had proven remarkably popular among the Tory backbenchers for his ferocious criticism of Gladstone and his equally ferocious attacks on the French in defense of Disraeli's Egypt policy: the 34-year old Randolph Churchill, who became the youngest Prime Minister since Pitt (who was 24). Although quite young and equally disliked by both factions (thus making him a perfect compromise), he was popular among the general public, a useful fact as the Tories feared defeat in 1885. Churchill immediately became a popular Prime Minister, pushing through an expansion of the franchise as part of his new ideology of "Tory Democracy." However, unlike Disraeli, Churchill was inclined to take a harsher approach to French expansionism, a stance that in 1884 would end Britain's "Splendid Isolation."
Chapter 41 - The Qing-French War
The Qing-French War
The awkward Qing-French Condominium predictably began to break down in awkward ways. After the death of Emperor Tu Duc, his adoptive son, Duc Duc was crowned Emperor, but was overthrown in a coup by his regents and executed. In outrage, the French delegation demanded that the Vietnamese regents, Nguyen Van Tuong and Ton That Thuyet install Hiep Hoa, who was known to be friendly to the French. They refused and the French backed down, allowing the regents to place into power the Child-Emperor Ham Nghi, who was supported by the Qing. Several war hawks in France were angry, but the French Emperor Napoleon IV did not feel it was worth going to war in Asia.
This all changed in 1884, when due to an confrontation between a missionary and a local farmer in Cochinchina, the farmer took a punch at the farmer, at which point the missionary pushed the farmer down, who apparently then died due to being in very poor health. An anti-Christian riot exploded, which quickly started spreading as anti-French Vietnamese treated Christian Vietnamese as a stand-in for the French. The French responded in fury, demanding that the Dai Nam imperial government clamp down on the fighters. However, the regents responded by saying that Cochinchina was under French control - the Nguyen Dynasty only controlled Annam and Tonkin. Worst of all, the famous Black Flags, the Sino-Vietnamese guerilla group fighting French influence, had moved from Annam and Tonkin (under Qing-French condominium) into French Cochinchina. They operated on the Annam-Cochinchina border, evading French troops by fleeing into Annam every-time French troops arrived.
Outraged by the persecution of Christians, the war hawks in France won out. The French issued an ultimatum to the Vietnamese royal government, ordering that they either disarm the Black Flags or allow the French Army to waltz into Cochinchina to defeat them. However, the second condition was a violation of the Qing-French Condominium Agreement, which prohibited the entry of Qing or French regular armies in Annam and Tonkin. The French requested that the Qing allow that provision to be temporarily suspended. The Qing Court was in no mood to compromise. After their successful defense of Korean sovereignty against Japanese incursion in 1874, the Qing Court in 1884 was both confident in its military capacity and eager to defend another perceived vassal state.
The French, feeling certain that the Qing would not respond, marched a French army across the border to pursue the Black Flag rebels. In response, nationwide mobs rose up and attacked French merchants and Vietnamese Christians, much to the horror of the French. This time, the French once again demanded the Vietnamese government to put down the rebels, but they refused. In response, the French declared war on the Empire of Dai Nam, a move largely popular in France because it was seen as necessary to protect Vietnamese Christians.
Much to the surprise of the French, the Qing Court, led by the Yuanhua Emperor, declared war on France in response. The Yuanhua Emperor himself was rather convinced that the Vietnamese revolts were a "national awakening" that the Qing Empire was honor-bound to support. The only opponent to the idea was Li Hongzhang, who noted that the Qing Navy had yet to be fully rebuilt. Indeed, his caution was in a sense warranted. What little of the Chinese fleet remaining from the Qing-Japanese War was destroyed in a short battle off the coast of Fujian, even the Dingyuan and Zhenyuan, two advanced battleships that had been built for the Qing Empire by Britain, significantly more advanced than what the French ships actually had. The Qing Army immediately plunged into Annam however, in a series of battles where the French had been heavily harmed by the simultaneous rebellion. After a series of battles, the French armies had been defeated due to the massive numerical disparity and poor positioning in hostile territories. Fleeing to Cochinchina, reinforcements from Mainland France arrived to bolster the defense.
As Qing-Dai Nam forces plunged into Cochinchina, they were aided by both Black Flag bandits and nationalist rebels, who often wreaked horrible atrocities on French and Christian Vietnamese civilians. The Child Emperor of Dai Nam, guided by his rebels, even published an edict forbidden the practice of Christianity. All of this outraged the French public, which rallied behind the war effort. The French Navy quickly set up a blockade all around the Qing Empire, choking its economy. Prime Minister Churchill expressed outrage at this action, castigating France for ruining free commerce in China, but the French were in no mood to listen, especially as they knew the Qing Army had been trained and armed largely by Britain.
In addition, as Cochinchina fell, the last troops from the region were ferried out by French ships and transferred either to Cambodia or to the easiest target they could find - Taiwan. Although the landings were difficult, determined French offensive pushes as well as a constant stream of reinforcements slowly pushed the Qing garrison to the point of collapse. In addition, the Franco-Cambodian forces in Cambodia held up very well, especially because the Qing invasion was seen as an pretext for Vietnamese imperialism over Cambodia, which was almost unanimously loathed by Cambodia's ruling classes. In addition, much of Vietnam's Christian population had fled persecution into Cambodia, where Cambodian ruling elites grudgingly tolerated them (mostly because the French forced them to). Although the war had began terribly for France, they soon began turning the tide, as the Qing-Dai Nam offensive into Cambodia collapsed and Taiwan soon surrendered.
The war ground into a brutal stalemate, putting pressure on the Qing Empire as the economy suffered and isolated incidents of peasant unrest became known to the Qing court. In the Treaty of Tientsin, the two powers agreed to a peace that tried to create a status quo antebellum, but which was impossible. Namely the problem was Cochinchina - the Vietnamese regents indicated that they were willing to rescind the anti-Christian edict, but only if Cochinchina was returned to Dai Nam. The French were outraged. The Qing truly desired peace at this point, but they couldn't be seen to abandon Vietnam. Similarly, the French couldn't give up Cochinchina with nothing in return. However, the Qing's British supporters were also eager for a peace, as their economy, closely tied up in trade with China, was also suffering.
Ultimately, the Treaty of Tientsin transferred Cochinchina to Dai Nam sovereignity and ended the condominium over Dai Nam, making it a sole suzereinty of the Qing Empire again. However, in return, the French were granted a protectorate over Taiwan Prefecture (Taiwan only being a prefecture in Fujian province), which they exchanged for a generous delivery to the Qing Treasury. When the peace was signed, the French had a very bad feeling about this, a feeling confirmed shortly after when they were informed of a diplomatic revolution.
In 1885, the Yuanhua Emperor had convinced the Qing Court that although the Qing could stand up to the European powers under his reforms, they were unable to truly defeat them and thus required a European ally. The British Prime Minister himself, Randolph Churchill, signed an agreement with the Qing envoy, Prince Gong (semi-exiled to London), outlining the Anglo-Manchu Alliance, where the two promised to defend the other from any threats. The British Tory elite reveled in the terms. The Qing Emperor, who once demanded British agents to kowtow, officially addressed himself as the Emperor of Asia, a co-equal to the Empress of India, Victoria I. This was seen a huge coup for British monarchists. In addition, the merchant class was pleased. Under the cover of the treaty, the Qing Empire quietly abrogated its unequal treaties with France and Sweden-Norway (much to French outrage), leaving the treaties only open with the United Kingdom and the United States (the British didn't want to provoke the Americans). The dominance of Anglo-American merchants in China only rose as a result. Prime Minister Churchill was jubilant, seeing this as a diplomatic triumph only a few years after the humiliation at Egypt.
In contrast, the French felt humiliated. The French public quickly blamed all of the atrocities in the Qing-French War squarely on the British, many civilian politicians even suggesting that the entire war was just a British conspiracy to exterminate Roman Catholicism, much like Gladstone's intervention in promoting the Roman Union. The Qing-French War was technically a tie, but the French felt like losers.
Widespread Anglophilia among the Qing Court eventually made it possible for the Yuanhua Emperor to ram through a written Constitution for the Qing Empire, clearly passed onto the Emperor by British diplomats, because it was remarkably similar to the Constitution of Tonga that had been drafted with British assistance.
The Qing Emperor claimed the truly odd title "Emperor of Asia" as a result of King Kalakaua of Hawaii's world tour, which he made seeking to attract immigrants to work the sugar plantations of Hawaii. The Qing Emperor gladly obliged, telling Kalakaua that he was more or less willing to take whoever he wanted. Taiwan was also a sugar-growing region and once it fell to the French, the Qing encouraged the vast majority of the skilled population to move to Hawaii instead of living under French rule (to deny the French of useful talent). The Qing, hoping to establish international legitimacy, surprisingly thought the Hawaiians were more or less a Western nation due to its American influence, and when Kalakaua offered to marry his daughter Kaʻiulani to the heir of the Qing Empire, the Yuanhua Emperor accepted. This was despite the fact that he had no actual heir yet. Kalakaua, also surprised and excited, asked that the Qing form a Union of Asian Nations. The Qing Emperors, unlike say, the Japanese or Koreans, always loved tacking extra titles onto their list, so they accepted. When the Qing Court had heard of this, many of them fell into apoplectics, though few criticized the match because no one could criticize the Manchu Emperors for marrying a foreigner without egregiously pointing out their Manchu heritage in a very awkward and politically incorrect way. Not to mention it wasn't really exactly clear what the Union of Asian Nations was or if it held any actual legal force (it really didn't). In addition, it was barely a marital promise because the Qing Empire did not follow primogeniture - assuming he had multiple sons, the next Emperor was always secretly selected by the current Emperor among all of his eligible sons, a selection which would be revealed upon his death. The Yuanhua Emperor's oldest son Yunze was actually born in 1885 (the Manchu age of majority was 16) and to everyone's surprise, the Emperor kept his promise by betrothing the newborn baby to the nine and a half year old Kaʻiulani (the Manchus were relatively lenient with age gaps, only really viewing it as a problem if it hit double digits).
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I usually don't like seeing France loose but if China wins then DOWN WITH FRANCE.
The French are all around probably doing better in the colonial race. They're down Vietnam, but up Taiwan and Egypt/Sudan.
The real colonial losers are the British, who are out Egypt/Sudan to France, Kenya/Uganda to Germany, and Zululand to well, the Zulus. Without the Cape to Cairo Dream, there's probably no Portuguese ultimatum, which means Zambia and Zimbabwe to Portugal. The British Empire in Africa is probably just South Africa, Nigeria, and Ghana.
That being said, the German Togoland probably...not a thing...for reasons.
So far, not that different, though the weakness of French Indochina probably butterflies out the Franco-Siamese War. If anything, the presence of the French is actually conducive to peace, because French Cambodia is a remarkably effective buffer state between Siam and Dai Nam.
The Thai King is remarkably savvy and he knows that peace with France is probable as long as he keeps missionaries relatively safe.
Man, looks like China will never truly lose it's status as a major power in TTL. Shame they don't share an ocean with the CSA to kick their asses in.