Divided Japan?

What if the Northern Alliance had succeeded against the Imperial faction in Japan during the Boshin war and managed to remain independent? How would this be possible, and what might the effects be?

-Would Imperial Japan still become a major power?

-What might become of the remaining Shogunate state in the North? Would it last?

-What will foreign relations be towards the two Japans?

-Would either state attempt to absorb the other at any point in time?
 

Delvestius

Banned
Boshin War? Way too late of a PoD for such a thing to happen... The Shogunate loyalists did indeed flee to Hokkaido where they set up an independent nation, which was promptly annexed by the Imperials a short time afterward.

Essentially, support for the Shogunate was too weak in terms of numbers, technology and foreign support for such an event to likely occur.

A modern-day Japan divided among old rivalries between the clans would be much more of a likely scenario. An independent Kyushu and Shikoku, ruled by the Shimazu and Chosokabe clans respectively, could potentially last into the modern day if they consolidated power at the right moments and gained foreign support during the Meiji restoration on Honshu.
 
Maybe the Ashikaga Shogunate could last longer, lets say Oda Nobunaga's surprise attack at Okehazama against Imagawa Yoshimoto either doesn't happen or it fails. If Nobunaga dies afterwards, then the 3 unifiers as we know them are gone. If history goes the way it did in the west save the central we could have the Shimazu conquer all of Kyushu, the Mori could take Chugoku, and the Chosokabe could conquer most Shikoku. The big question is what happens to clans in the center of Honshu, will the Miyoshi still be able to hold on to their lands, are the Saito defeated by the Imagawa instead.

Will Shingen decide to eventually march on his brother in law Yoshimoto, or will that triple alliance between the Hojo,Imagawa, and Takeda last. That would actually make a decent TL.
 
Maybe the Ashikaga Shogunate could last longer, lets say Oda Nobunaga's surprise attack at Okehazama against Imagawa Yoshimoto either doesn't happen or it fails. If Nobunaga dies afterwards, then the 3 unifiers as we know them are gone. If history goes the way it did in the west save the central we could have the Shimazu conquer all of Kyushu, the Mori could take Chugoku, and the Chosokabe could conquer most Shikoku. The big question is what happens to clans in the center of Honshu, will the Miyoshi still be able to hold on to their lands, are the Saito defeated by the Imagawa instead.

Will Shingen decide to eventually march on his brother in law Yoshimoto, or will that triple alliance between the Hojo,Imagawa, and Takeda last. That would actually make a decent TL.

Uhhh... I'm talking about the Boshin War. 1868-1869. No offense, but you're three hundred years off.
 
Uhhh... I'm talking about the Boshin War. 1868-1869. No offense, but you're three hundred years off.
Like said above, the Boshin War isnt ideal for that. Japan has been unified for far too long, under a single ethnic and cultural group. Hokkaido is weak and wouldnt really be able to compete as a state against Japan proper. Meanwhile the popularity of the Shogunate loyalists, who are foreigners in Hokkaido, pales compared to the popularity of a the Imperials. Hence why the Republic of Ezo was crushed OTL.

But i suppose implausible doesnt mean impossible. Since this is alternate history you can say the Meji government for some reasons decides to accept the independence of the Republic of Ezo, although perhaps as a tributary state. Requires quite a bit suspension of disbelief though.
 
Indeed, the only way that the scenario would work if the French AND British played much stronger roles in supporting Ezo. As in useing their own military forces to defend Ezo. Given that the Imperials were on the rise though it seems unlikely such a event would occur.

Perhaps if somehow the Russians had a stronger position in the Pacific.
 
Like said above, the Boshin War isnt ideal for that. Japan has been unified for far too long, under a single ethnic and cultural group. Hokkaido is weak and wouldnt really be able to compete as a state against Japan proper. Meanwhile the popularity of the Shogunate loyalists, who are foreigners in Hokkaido, pales compared to the popularity of a the Imperials. Hence why the Republic of Ezo was crushed OTL.

But i suppose implausible doesnt mean impossible. Since this is alternate history you can say the Meji government for some reasons decides to accept the independence of the Republic of Ezo, although perhaps as a tributary state. Requires quite a bit suspension of disbelief though.

However, I'm not talking about the Republic of Ezo. I am aware that it was a doomed state. I am talking about the Northern Coalition, which was an alliance of several domains in Northern Honshu loyal to the Shogunaye even after the fall of Edo/Tokyo. IOTL they held out at Nagaoka Castle for a while and inflicted heavy casualties on the Imperial faction (thanks to the procurement of 2 Gatling guns) at the Battle of Hokuetsu. The castle only fell when an Imperial commando team reached the castle by sea and set it alight. Even then, the Coalition managed to temporarily retake the castle.

Now, what I'd like to imagine is-what if the commando team failed, and the Coalition forces held out? Maybe they'd even last long enough to gain support from the French (OTL, the French had a military mission in Tokugawa Japan from 1868-1869, and had pretty sour relations with the Imperial faction due to a massacre of 11 French sailors at Sakai by Imperial troops)?
 
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