Divided France?

All right, off the bat forgive my ignorance on the matter, as my education comprises a few hours reading this morning...

The War of the Three Henry's. We have:
-Henry III of the Valois Dynasty ('moderate' Catholic)
-Henry Guise (Ultra-Catholic)
-Henry of Navarre (Bourbon and Protestant)

If I understand things correctly, Henry Valois had Henry Guise killed, and in turn the Ultra-Catholics send in Mr. Assassin Monk who whacked Henry Valois. In the resulting chaos, Henry Navarre took the throne for the Bourbons, converted to Catholicism, and we have OTL.

So, my question is: if we could have one (or both) of the two Catholic Henry's survive (likely Henry Valois, given the near ASB conditions of his murder), what's the possibility of the Catholics and the Protestants fighting to a standstill: resulting in a divided state rather than the single France we all know and love today?
Short term, obviously: long term, one side may have taken over the other, but by this point they were both so exhausted...

Given the survival of one of the Catholic Henry's, how likely is it for France to both end up, and stay divided for the foreseeable future?
 
AFAIK Henry III was sickly (had several brothers who all predecased him) and most likely infertile. So he might die of natural causes anyway.

The problem with France splitting is that the Protestants not even in their southern strongholds had a majority of the population on their side.
 
AFAIK Henry III was sickly (had several brothers who all predecased him) and most likely infertile. So he might die of natural causes anyway.

The problem with France splitting is that the Protestants not even in their southern strongholds had a majority of the population on their side.
Was he? (news to me...)
I read, not saying it's right, that he was in rather better health than his older brothers: earning their contempt (that combined with a dotting mother).

If it was so lopsided, how did the Huguenots and the Protestants hold on for so long / propagate such a major, multi-decade war? :confused:

Not being obnoxious, just trying to figure this out. :eek:
 
What if the Spanish were to intervene directly on behalf of the Guise claim, either during the 3HW or earlier? Knowing the Bull in China Shop behavior of the Tercios, could this be enough to drive even many Catholics to back the Bourbon claim, particularly knowing Henry B's OTL religeous...flexibility?

If we have something where the two sides balance could we see a Balkanization situation with competing King Henri IV's?
 
Top