Oddly a divided China is potentially more likely as you butterfly the Second World War and feel their wings beat from an altered or avoided Great War. First, the European powers had much vested in a weak and divided China, not necessarily one balkanized into separate countries but it is not a step too far. Keep the Europeans in China another few decades and you might see the regionalism of the Warlord-era take root. With the Europeans still camped in China the Japanese may not spark a war that helps unify China despite the destruction it wrought. Best case scenario you see China roughly divide into Revolutionary versus Reformist camps who cement rural versus urban and birth a divided pair of Chinas with the fringes independent, worst case it devolves into petty fiefdoms, even more divided into haves versus have-nots. I think the civil war would be the pressure cooker exploding to fragment China, if the outside powers support the factions then it is a weird cold war in miniature played out in China alone but with more than two hegemons playing the game. All in all I think China is really badly abused in this scenario, Mao might be a puppet ruling a rump under Soviet influence, Chiang might brutally rule over the coastal areas not spun off to form friendly puppets for the cast of 55 Days at Peking, and so on. Alas I try to steer China through this mess to avoid the ugly, minimize the bad and favor the good in my own imaginings.