Divided China query

So, assuming
  • Non expansionist Koreo-Japanese empire, instead of OTL Japanese Empire, as western Ally
  • Stronger Nationalist China in the Axis
  • Butterfly nets as needed outside the East
How would China be divided if it lost WW2?
And effects on the ensuing Cold War etc.
 
How do you create Koreo-Japanese Empire instead OTL Japanese Empire? You would need so early POD that not only Asia but whole world would look very different.
 
How do you create Koreo-Japanese Empire instead OTL Japanese Empire? You would need so early POD that not only Asia but whole world would look very different.
Hence the butterfly nets I mentioned.

Wut?
Just be more descriptive, there seems to be a lot of missing PODs and unexplained details.
In very brief and assuming minimal butterflies as needed:
Union of Baekje and Kyushu clans in 7th century.
King sets himself up as Chinese style Emperor
Sillan invasion causes court to flee for Kyushu.
Fall of Tang enables expansion back to peninsula until Mongols.
Rise of Ming and weak shogunate allow 2nd Empire
European contact leads to the Empire monopolising Ming maritime trade.
Empire successfully resists Japanese unification.
Becomes British Ally against Russia.
Establishes protectorates over Kogoryo, Nippon, and Formosa.
Rise of Nationalist China.
 
I'd presume Tibet is independent, there's a Uighurstan SSR, and Mongolia extends a bit southward.
What happens to Qinghai?
I'll assume there's an a-bomb strike on the Nationalists, where would that be?
What else?

I'm basically trying to make Nationalist China a mix of otl Japanese Empire and the Third Reich without butterflying Europe too much.
 
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Hence the butterfly nets I mentioned.


In very brief and assuming minimal butterflies as needed:
Union of Baekje and Kyushu clans in 7th century.
King sets himself up as Chinese style Emperor
Sillan invasion causes court to flee for Kyushu.
Fall of Tang enables expansion back to peninsula until Mongols.
Rise of Ming and weak shogunate allow 2nd Empire
European contact leads to the Empire monopolising Ming maritime trade.
Empire successfully resists Japanese unification.
Becomes British Ally against Russia.
Establishes protectorates over Kogoryo, Nippon, and Formosa.
Rise of Nationalist China.
'
The problem is that your taking a hodgepodge of Japanese institutions ie clans and Shogunate and putting them into a time period where they did not exist, and somehow assuming that OTL dynasties would rise and fall like they did.

If you want a divided China, without too many European butterflies why not go with a worse OTL. With Soviet assistance both Outer Mongolia and Xinjiang broke away, why not have the Sino-Soviet War of 1928 go much worse, and become an all out war. Maybe Outer Mongolia gets Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang breaks away without Sheng Shicai, who only went there after Manchuria his native land fell to the Japanese.
 
Oddly a divided China is potentially more likely as you butterfly the Second World War and feel their wings beat from an altered or avoided Great War. First, the European powers had much vested in a weak and divided China, not necessarily one balkanized into separate countries but it is not a step too far. Keep the Europeans in China another few decades and you might see the regionalism of the Warlord-era take root. With the Europeans still camped in China the Japanese may not spark a war that helps unify China despite the destruction it wrought. Best case scenario you see China roughly divide into Revolutionary versus Reformist camps who cement rural versus urban and birth a divided pair of Chinas with the fringes independent, worst case it devolves into petty fiefdoms, even more divided into haves versus have-nots. I think the civil war would be the pressure cooker exploding to fragment China, if the outside powers support the factions then it is a weird cold war in miniature played out in China alone but with more than two hegemons playing the game. All in all I think China is really badly abused in this scenario, Mao might be a puppet ruling a rump under Soviet influence, Chiang might brutally rule over the coastal areas not spun off to form friendly puppets for the cast of 55 Days at Peking, and so on. Alas I try to steer China through this mess to avoid the ugly, minimize the bad and favor the good in my own imaginings.
 
The problem is that your taking a hodgepodge of Japanese institutions ie clans and Shogunate and putting them into a time period where they did not exist, and somehow assuming that OTL dynasties would rise and fall like they did.
Er? no I'm not putting them where they did not exist. The shogun period of Japan is roughly 1185-1860s, Ming were post Mongol 1360ish.
I'm aware this is rather a butterfly light scenario for the purists but I'm trying to make it understandable contextwise for the situation I'm after. Go ahead and assume I'm not talking exactly the same people or pretend it's a WW2 mod.
 
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