Disintegrated Ethiopia

Somewhere during the civil war in Ethiopia, the country is thrown into chaos and large ethnic states are declaring independence from Ethiopia and some of them gains independence by the end of the Cold War together with Eritrea.
How would this happen?
How would this change the political map of Horn of Africa today and what nations would come out victorious?

I could see a Oromia atleast being victorious in this situation as it being the largest ethnic group in the Horn of Africa.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Not that ASB, since that was an aim for several ethnic groups for quite some time. But a Balkanized Horn of Africa would definitely mean a more unstable East Africa than OTL. (And OTL is quite bad already).
 
Not that ASB, since that was an aim for several ethnic groups for quite some time. But a Balkanized Horn of Africa would definitely mean a more unstable East Africa than OTL. (And OTL is quite bad already).

Thats true, the only reason Ethiopia still exists atleast in Cushitic speaking areas is because it was "revived" by the Soviets.
But if this was to happen which nations would exist and how would we estimate the current political situation.
 
Without Ethiopia, Eritrea may not be so militarized. Perhaps they have a better economy? Of course maybe they would militarize anyway to take advantage of the power vacuum.

I may be wrong, but I believe that a great deal of the AU's military strength comes from Ethiopia. Without that, the AU maybe a much weaker force (and it's not that good already). :(
 
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