Discussion: the final POD to keep the WRE survive

Thomas1195

Banned
What do you think would be the final POD to keep the WRE survive, even as a rump state, at least until Justinian reconquest?

I think the latest one would be a Western victory in Frigidus with the majority of the Eastern losses falling into the Goth. By the time of Majorian, it was far too late.

An even stricter late POD would be Gratian remaining independent of Ambrose, and remaining sane (not doing things like taking into his personal service a body of Alans, and appearing in public in the dress of a Scythian warrior, which directly angered the legions and caused the Maximus rebellion).
 
I'm not saying that Romulus Augustus' timeline could happen, just that if the WRE was going to last in the way we generally recognize it then that'd be how it goes about clinging to life. Seizing estates and empowering the monarchy is one path forward, doesn't matter when you start just so long as you make it last.
 
The ERE sends an army to 'protect' Julius Nepos in Dalmatia,with what remained of the WRE effectively a puppet state of the ERE.
 

Pellaeon

Banned
What if the Roman fleet succeeded in retaking Carthage? Thus crushing the vandals and getting that bread basket back? Could that have been the shot in the arm the empire needed?
 
How about the ERE send a huge army to invade and dispose Ricimer under the command of Anthemius?
That could also work.I simply did not understand why the ERE did not show stronger support to the WRE despite not being at war with the Persians that much.
 
What do you think would be the final POD to keep the WRE survive, even as a rump state, at least until Justinian reconquest?

If a rump state is enough, have Odovacar decide to keep Romulus Augustulus as Emperor instead of deposing him. There, you now have a surviving WRE rump state in Italy.
 

Artaxerxes

Banned
What if the Roman fleet succeeded in retaking Carthage? Thus crushing the vandals and getting that bread basket back? Could that have been the shot in the arm the empire needed?

Peter Heather seems to think so. It would certainly have given the Roman Army the much needed cash it needed to survive.
 
What do you think would be the final POD to keep the WRE survive, even as a rump state, at least until Justinian reconquest?

I think the latest one would be a Western victory in Frigidus with the majority of the Eastern losses falling into the Goth. By the time of Majorian, it was far too late.

An even stricter late POD would be Gratian remaining independent of Ambrose, and remaining sane (not doing things like taking into his personal service a body of Alans, and appearing in public in the dress of a Scythian warrior, which directly angered the legions and caused the Maximus rebellion).
What if the Sassanid Empire wasn't a threat Like OTL ? Would the ERE have more ressources to asisst the WRE ?
 
What if the Sassanid Empire wasn't a threat Like OTL ? Would the ERE have more ressources to asisst the WRE ?
No matter how much eastern roman support was given to the initial expedition, it would have failed, unless you have the vandals not be lucky as all hell. There were a massive amount of men and ships at cap bon, but they still lost there. Even if it had succeeded, western rome would become much more dependent on the eastern romans, and essentially become a client.

However, if majorian had succeeded against the vandals and gotten rid of ricimer (words cannot describe how much i hate that guy..), he might've pulled off a komnenid-esque restoration of western rome. However, it would require a number of good or mediocre but not bad emperors to maintain such a restored empire, as western rome still had plenty of threats. Hell, one of its only allies, eastern rome, could invade at time, and on occasion did.

In conclusion.. A western roman restoration this late would not be likely, but it is possible.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
However, if majorian had succeeded against the vandals and gotten rid of ricimer (words cannot describe how much i hate that guy..), he might've pulled off a komnenid-esque restoration of western rome.
What kind of army did Majorian have? IOTL he mainly played one barbarian horde against another. What you need is a capable Western Roman army. You do know why the Roman survived after Cannae in the past, because they were able to raise new troops. If not, then another Ricimer would emerge, this time he could be Gundobad, Ricimer's nephew.

What if the Sassanid Empire wasn't a threat Like OTL ?
How about somehow having the majority of the Goth warriors being pitted against the Sassinids in Mesopotamia, so that the Persian cavalry would roll over these barbarians on the open field.

Hell, one of its only allies, eastern rome, could invade at time, and on occasion did.
Have Anthemius and Marcellinus invading Rome in 467 with a bigger army, defeating Ricimer and Co, and gain the throne by force of arm. The advantage of this option is that after a successful invasion Anthemius can purge the Roman aristocrats who opposed much needed reforms. This can also be an option with Julius Nepos.
 
Even more important than conquering Africa IMHO would be reigning in the rampant corruption and tax evasion that hobbled the Western Empire in its later years. The Western Empire had, on paper, vastly more wealth and resources than any Germanic tribe (at the start of the fifth century, before the invasions of Gaul) or at least about the same wealth and resources as any tribe (by the 470s, when it was just in control of Italy and parts of Gaul), but its government was never able to leverage this into a proper income, largely because the Imperial civil servants were largely drawn from the super-wealthy Senatorial class and so had a vested interest in the government not being able to stop aristocratic tax evasion. Clamp down on the problem soon enough, and the Empire could support a big enough army to keep the barbarians in line, if not outright destroy them; clamp down on it later, and the Empire would at least be able to defend its core territories against barbarian invasion, even if a full-scale reconquest is no longer feasible.
 
Majorian was the last shot.

Had he avoided assassination, he would've reclaimed North Africa and its grain supplies with all that entails for the economic stability of the Empire and then could've returned to Rome at the head of a victorious army to begin forcing through reforms. In the 460s, the Visigoths and Franks could be brought to heel in Gaul, firmly securing it and from there the Empire would be in great shape going forward.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
then could've returned to Rome at the head of a victorious army to begin forcing through reforms
You mean the barbarian mercenaries hired by Majorian? Just no. He was talented but unlike Caesar and Octavian, he lacked a proper Roman Army to accompany him. And even after purging the aristocrats (which is borderline ASB unless you are invaders), it would take years to build up a pre-Adrianople Army. Until then, Ricimer could have easily killed him if he wanted, because he still controlled the "Roman" army.

Anthemius actually had a far stronger position since he arrived at Italy with an Eastern Army when he was coronated. The POD should be Anthemius being given a bigger army by Leo and tasked to invade Italy. If he succeeds in this way (march to Rome, Ravenna or so), then he could simply have the corrupt Roman aristocrats as well as Ricimer and Co beheaded, and their wealth confiscated.

Oh, and Majorian was killed because he failed to reclaim North Africa. So, he is not going to reclaim it soon even if he managed to avoid assassination.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Several cases overall:
Late PODs as I said above means that they must be post-Adrianople.


1) The Goths, after Adrianople, decides to go East. Then have them being crushed by the Sassinids in Mesopotamia. (No way the Goths would defeat the Sassinids on a cavalry-friendly terrain).

3) No Vandal conquest of Roman Africa.

4) Tax reforms: frankly, only a victory "civilized" foreign invader could impose such reforms.

5) Gratian remains sane. No Maximus rebellion.

6) Anthemius gains the Western throne via force of arm (which means Ricimer must die).

7) Frigidus a Western victory.

8) Majorian/Anthemius succeeds in reclaiming North Africa. We can also have a POD of invading NA from Egypt.
 
I expect at least one Majorian comment, but as I said, by then it would be too late.
I would like to hear your reasoning for this. I emphatically disagree.

EDIT: See you sort of did this. Allow me to dig through it in a moment.

EDIT 2:


You mean the barbarian mercenaries hired by Majorian? Just no. He was talented but unlike Caesar and Octavian, he lacked a proper Roman Army to accompany him.
@LSCatilina and others know more about this than I do, IIRC, but lacking a "Roman" army isn't as big a hindrance as you think. The Roman Republic/Empire relied on non-citizens for at least half their forces since its inception. After 212, outside foederati made up an increasingly large percentage of the army (replacing the non-citizen auxiliaries that had always been a part of the Roman army), and this did not lead to any real decline in the quality of the Roman military. The problem with late-western Rome was manpower. When they fought battles, they almost always still won, they just could not really afford the losses sustained in the process.

And even after purging the aristocrats (which is borderline ASB unless you are invaders), it would take years to build up a pre-Adrianople Army. Until then, Ricimer could have easily killed him if he wanted, because he still controlled the "Roman" army.
This is a rather simplistic reading of the political situation. It's true, Majorian cannot realistically carry out a purge of the aristocrats. It is also true that he did not need to, as long as he was successful. Military success breeds its own political power. Assuming Majorian can successfully land in and take back North Africa from the Vandals (which isn't as difficult as people seem to think, the hard part was getting to North Africa, but it should fold relatively easily once an army lands), that gives him enormous prestige and political power on its own-here is the man who retook the breadbasket and economic hub of the empire. In addition to that, it gives him a vital revenue stream and tax base that can be used to replenish the empire's finances-that is something the empire will have access to regardless of Majorian himself surviving, and as Peter Heather has convincingly argued, as long as the Western Roman Empire controlled North Africa, it could survive indefinitely, if not return to its former hegemonic position.On top of all this, many of the defeated Vandals would be recruited into Majorian's army, as they were in the eastern roman army after their conquest IOTL. As for Ricimer, his move against Majorian was as much self preservation as it was opportunistic-unlike Majorian at the time, he had to deal with the fickle Italian elite that were not fond of him, and it is possible that he recognized after the disastrous defeat in Spain, the knives would be out for Majorian-and he would go down with him if he didn't turn coat. In any case, if Majorian wants to get rid of Ricimer at this time, after returning from Africa a conquering hero, Ricimer is pretty much a dead man.
 
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