Discussion: President Stephen Douglas

Watching PBS and they have author John Stauffer of Harvard who is crediting John Brown and his raid on Harper's Ferry as leading to the election of Lincoln. Stauffer contends that if John Brown never raided Harper's Ferry, or if he was never born, that the following would occur:

1. Douglas wins the election over Lincoln
2. The Civil War is postponed at least 4 years.

It is my belief that by the time Buchanan gets into office the Civil War is inevitable. What does AH.com think?
 
It is my belief that by the time Buchanan gets into office the Civil War is inevitable. What does AH.com think?

It's inevitable unless the South has an attack of common sense.

By 1860 the Republicans are established as the second party, so sooner or later they are pretty certain to get in - if not in 1860 then some other year. So unless the South is prepared to swallow this and stay in the Union - - -.
 
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Watching PBS and they have author John Stauffer of Harvard who is crediting John Brown and his raid on Harper's Ferry as leading to the election of Lincoln. Stauffer contends that if John Brown never raided Harper's Ferry, or if he was never born, that the following would occur:

1. Douglas wins the election over Lincoln

I don't get this at all.

2. The Civil War is postponed at least 4 years.

It is my belief that by the time Buchanan gets into office the Civil War is inevitable. What does AH.com think?

It wasn't inevitable even after Lincoln's election. The South Carolina convention was divided between immediate secessionsts and cooperationists. The latter group wanted South Carolina to act only in cooperation with other slave states. Their idea was to have a convention of the slave states, which would issue a general call for all the slave states to declare secession at the same time.

That way, South Carolina would not be in danger of leading the charge with no one following.

Between the election and the convention, a railroad connecting South Carolina to Georgia was completed, and there was a ceremony marking the occasion, attended by many leading citizens of both states. At this gathering, the secession issue was discussed, and many Georgians assured the South Carolinians that Georgia would be right beside them.

This assurance was a major boost to the immediate secession faction. Without, the cooperationists might have won.

In that case, South Carolina would call for a slave-states convention, which would be attended by delegates from the Deep South, but not the Border or Upper South. Or Upper South states might send delegates opposed to secession; at least until Lincoln did something illegal. The convention would wrangle for weeks, and the Upper South moderates would argue for waiting to judge Lincoln.

Lincoln in turn would be careful not to provoke the convention. After a few weeks into his term, it would probably adjourn, and the chance of immediate secession would be gone, probably never to return. Only the hysteria of 1860 got Southern emotions high enough.
 
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