Discussion:Nazi Invasion Of The Middle East

I've read alot about this senario, and from what I gather, it would have been one of the best ways for Hitler to win the war. So, let's say that Rommel manages to win either the First or Second Battle of El Alamein, and goes on to occupy all of Egypt. My questions are...

1)What POD or PODs would be required for this to happen?

2)Assuming Nazi victory in Egypt, what immediate affects would this have on both the Allied and Axis war effort?

3)How soon could the Nazi's start the invasion of the Middle East? What sort of opposition could the Allies muster?

4)What would happen if the Nazi's were to take Palestine?

5)How long would the entire conquest of the Middle East by the Nazi's take? Is an invasion of India possible?

6)If the Allies are defeated in the Middle East, is their any way they could keep fighting the war?

7) Did the Nazi's have any plans for what to do with the Arab population, both Muslims and Jews? What was the Nazi stance on Islam?

This is an open discussion, and I would like anyone with any information to take part.
 
1)What POD or PODs would be required for this to happen?

Hitler sends Rommel more Armored Divisions, and perhaps calls of Barbarossa to concentrate on the Mediterranean.

The Capture of Malta rather than Crete. This could cut off Allied supply lines and the Axis Dominate the Mediterranean.

2)Assuming Nazi victory in Egypt, what immediate affects would this have on both the Allied and Axis war effort?

The Allies would loose all access to the Mediterranean. Cyprus would be besieged by U-Boats and the Luftwaffe. German forces would have control over the Suez, allowing for a safer and quicker way for U-Boats to move into the Indian Ocean.

Germans would have a massive morale boost, and production would be very high. Hitler would start plans to attack Russia on two fronts, one from the Middle East, and the other from Eastern Europe.

The Allied war effort would probably begin to fail more and more. India would now somewhat be a direct threat from the Germans, The Holy Land would likely fall as well.

Pro-Axis Rebellions in Iraq are more likely to succeed, with the Germans only a few hundred kilometers away. Persia would probably be cooperative with the Germans as well.

3)How soon could the Nazi's start the invasion of the Middle East? What sort of opposition could the Allies muster?

If Hitler calls off Barbarossa to concentrate on Africa and the Middle East, here is a basic timeline.


March 1941- Hitler calls off aerial invasion of Crete, and instead plans for aerial invasion of Malta.

April 1941- Malta is captured by German air forces. Supply lines to Africa for the Germans are now safe.

May 1941- Hitler begins to send more troops to Rommel, who starts to make gains into Egypt.

June 1941- Allies are in full retreat to defend the Nile. Rommel as much more experienced men, and a lot more soldiers than the Allies by now.

July 1941- Rommel attacks the Nile and overwhems the Allied defenders, taking Alexandria and Cairo. The Allies being to form a defensive line at the Suez.

August 1941- Rommel attacks the Suez, eliminating the allied presence there, and prepares for an invasion of the Middle East.

The Allies would probably muster a lot more men in the Middle East, but most rushed out of training for the purpose of defending the Middle East.

The Germans are more likely to defend Africa from Invasion with far more men on the continent. Operation Torch a year later would fail or be called off.

4)What would happen if the Nazi's were to take Palestine?

Hitler would claim it was Germany's destiny. The Palestinians would likely be indifferent to the Nazi occupation. Maybe some would be incorporated into the SS' Muslim Divisions.

Huge propaganda victory, Hitler makes a visit to Jerusalem, and orders the burning of all major Jewish monuments.


5)How long would the entire conquest of the Middle East by the Nazi's take? Is an invasion of India possible?

Rommel could probably occupy the Middle East by the end of 1942 and attack Russia in a newly planned Barbarossa from Iran. The Germans would now have unlimited capabilities with most of the oil fields under their control.

An Invasion of India would likely take place. If Hitler promises Indian Independence, then you would see rebellion against the British with the Germans in Iran.

6)If the Allies are defeated in the Middle East, is their any way they could keep fighting the war?

Perhaps, Sealion is still impossible, if the British could hold onto India, which is unlikely with Japan likely to attack as well, then we could see a ceasefire. Hitler controls all of India and the Middle East, as well as Europe. Britain is now out of the war.

7) Did the Nazi's have any plans for what to do with the Arab population, both Muslims and Jews? What was the Nazi stance on Islam?

The Nazis actually respected Islam, but would likely kill all the Jews. Arabs were actually IOTL incorporated into several SS Units.
 
1)What POD or PODs would be required for this to happen?

There are many PODs that can be used to make this happen. One of them would be Hitler postponing Operation Barbarosssa to concentrate on seizing the oil-rich Middle East.

2)Assuming Nazi victory in Egypt, what immediate affects would this have on both the Allied and Axis war effort?

The Nazis now have loads of oil and the ablility to surround the European side of the Soviet Union. Plus, they also have the Suez Canal. Allied supplies and reinforcements bound for Asia or Europe have no choice but to take the longer Cape route. This leaves the convoys more exposed to U-boar wolfpacks as they have to travel a longer distance.

Is an invasion of India possible?

They would probably be content with the Middle East. Chances are, given the POD I have stated earlier, an even more massive Barbarossa would be next on Hitler's 'to do' list.

7) Did the Nazi's have any plans for what to do with the Arab population, both Muslims and Jews? What was the Nazi stance on Islam?

The Jewish population would definitely get screwed over by the Nazis. The Muslims,on the other hand, are a different story. Hitler envisioned a grand alliance between the Germans and the Muslims, just like in the First World War. The 13th Waffen SS Mountain Division 'Handschar' was evidence of the friendly Nazi policy toward the Muslims.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
4)What would happen if the Nazi's were to take Palestine?

Hitler would claim it was Germany's destiny. The Palestinians would likely be indifferent to the Nazi occupation. Maybe some would be incorporated into the SS' Muslim Divisions.

Huge propaganda victory, Hitler makes a visit to Jerusalem, and orders the burning of all major Jewish monuments.
Hitler probably wouldn't really give a damn. When you say that taking over the entire world is Germany's destiny, most people probably won't be all that impressed by a backwater region filled with nothing but Jews and Arabs.

The Palestinians aren't going to remain indifferent towards German occupation for long. What the Nazis would do to them would make Zionist atrocities during Israel's establishment look like a hug, a kiss, and some charmingly suggestive groping.
7) Did the Nazi's have any plans for what to do with the Arab population, both Muslims and Jews? What was the Nazi stance on Islam?

The Nazis actually respected Islam, but would likely kill all the Jews. Arabs were actually IOTL incorporated into several SS Units.
The Nazis respected Islam because they liked what they saw as the unquestioning submission, fanaticism, and ferocity that Islam lent itself to but Christianity did not. It should also be said that Nazis preferred Buddhism to both and Odinism to all three.

With regards to the Arab units of the Waffen-SS, you must understand that Himmler was very uneasy about allowing them since Nazism regarded Arabs as just as Semitic as Jews were. The main reason they were allowed to fight is because Germany was beginning to feel the weight of their losses.

So, in short, the very best that the Arabs can hope for under Nazi rule is what would befall the Slavs under German rule; a good deal killed off and the remainder enslaved.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Alot of comments sorry!


1)What POD or PODs would be required for this to happen?

Hitler sends Rommel more Armored Divisions, and perhaps calls of Barbarossa to concentrate on the Mediterranean.

Sending more armored divisions isn't going to help Rommel. In fact it will hamper him. His problem wasn't that he didn't have enough forces but that he couldn't supply them.

The Capture of Malta rather than Crete. This could cut off Allied supply lines and the Axis Dominate the Mediterranean.

The allied supply lines didn't go through the Med but around the Cape. Only the supplies to Malta were through the Med.

Germans would have a massive morale boost, and production would be very high. Hitler would start plans to attack Russia on two fronts, one from the Middle East, and the other from Eastern Europe.

The Middle East isn't a good place to launch a offensive out of. The infrastructure simply isn't there.

Pro-Axis Rebellions in Iraq are more likely to succeed, with the Germans only a few hundred kilometers away. Persia would probably be cooperative with the Germans as well.

That's assuming that ALL allied forces in theater simply vanish. Not going to happen.

3)How soon could the Nazi's start the invasion of the Middle East? What sort of opposition could the Allies muster?

If Hitler calls off Barbarossa to concentrate on Africa and the Middle East, here is a basic timeline.


March 1941- Hitler calls off aerial invasion of Crete, and instead plans for aerial invasion of Malta.

That leaves Ploetsi vulnerable.

April 1941- Malta is captured by German air forces. Supply lines to Africa for the Germans are now safe.

From what I know Malta was never a problem for the Axis supply lines as it was under siege itself. The Allied submarines operated from Alexandria and Gibraltar.

May 1941- Hitler begins to send more troops to Rommel, who starts to make gains into Egypt.

June 1941- Allies are in full retreat to defend the Nile. Rommel as much more experienced men, and a lot more soldiers than the Allies by now.

July 1941- Rommel attacks the Nile and overwhems the Allied defenders, taking Alexandria and Cairo. The Allies being to form a defensive line at the Suez.

More troops would be a problem, not a solution.

August 1941- Rommel attacks the Suez, eliminating the allied presence there, and prepares for an invasion of the Middle East.

How does he do that? How does he get over the Suez which might be filled with old battleship blowing his divisions to smitterees? Happened to the Ottomans in the First World War as well.

The Allies would probably muster a lot more men in the Middle East, but most rushed out of training for the purpose of defending the Middle East.

The Germans are more likely to defend Africa from Invasion with far more men on the continent. Operation Torch a year later would fail or be called off.

That's a coast-line even larger then the Atlantic Coast. It also means occupying the French colonies.




[/B]Rommel could probably occupy the Middle East by the end of 1942 and attack Russia in a newly planned Barbarossa from Iran. The Germans would now have unlimited capabilities with most of the oil fields under their control.

An Invasion of India would likely take place. If Hitler promises Indian Independence, then you would see rebellion against the British with the Germans in Iran.

Logistics, logistics...
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
The Jewish population would definitely get screwed over by the Nazis. The Muslims,on the other hand, are a different story. Hitler envisioned a grand alliance between the Germans and the Muslims, just like in the First World War. The 13th Waffen SS Mountain Division 'Handschar' was evidence of the friendly Nazi policy toward the Muslims.
It sounds to me like you're conflating "Muslim" with "Arab" with regard to this topic and its context.

Hitler and many Nazis admired Islam, yes. Persians, Indians, "acceptable" Slavic Muslims, those were fine. Arabs, on the other hand, are quite a different story. Arabs, like Jews, are Semitic, and Nazism has time and again shown that it is anything but philo-Semitic. Like I said above, the best Arabs can hope for is slave status while a large number of them are killed off.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Well Supply lines are going to be a killer. While Alexandria will greatly espand the ability of the Axis to supply divisions, until it is taken German simply cannot support more tank (infantry for that matter) divisions. Libya simply cannot be the only source of material for Rommel. Heres my little timeline...

- Rommel humiliates the British Army at the first battle of El Alamein
- Rommel arrives in Alexandria during the first week of August 1942
- The 8th Army tries to hold the Suez but the army is mostly broken after being forced against the canal. Rommel Crosses the canal by early september maybe late august.
- With the German capture of Alexandria the British Med Fleet is forced to malta, the Italians force a battle and when the smoke clears the Italians have supremacy in most of the med, Malta will be starved to surrender in a few months.
- pro-axis groups rise in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, and the Axis forces are able to mop up the remaining british forces in the middle east.
- Operation Torch is a go, after american and british fleet clears the western med. Most of the French forces just let the forces land. Without Rommel anywhere near the front, the Italian forces stationed in Libya collapse.
- The US-British forces meet the German Forces near Tobruk, and the exhausted Afrika Armee are defeated. Rommel is relieved of his command and sent to the Eastern Front as commander of the 4th Panzer Army and during Operation Winter Storm is able to break the encirclement of the 6th Army allowing most of it to escape the city.
-With Rommel's shine once again shining he is sent to the west, and his career follows similar OTL lines.
 
It sounds to me like you're conflating "Muslim" with "Arab" with regard to this topic and its context.

Hitler and many Nazis admired Islam, yes. Persians, Indians, "acceptable" Slavic Muslims, those were fine. Arabs, on the other hand, are quite a different story. Arabs, like Jews, are Semitic, and Nazism has time and again shown that it is anything but philo-Semitic. Like I said above, the best Arabs can hope for is slave status while a large number of them are killed off.

That assumes that Nazi anti-Jewish policy was a policy against all Semites. But it wasn't. We use 'anti-semitic' to describe it, but thats a quirk of European languages. The Nazis broadcasted propaganda in Arabic, and there were Nazi agents throughout the Middle East, working with Arabs in various capacities.

"Nazis hate Semites" is a very simplistic and inaccurate way of describing Nazi racial policy.
 
I'm waiting to see how, without the intervation of Eric the Bat, Rommel wins first Alamein (let alone 2nd!!!!)

The Germans were tired, at the end of their always flakey supply route, outnumbered 3:2 in men, 2:1 in tanks, 3:1 in aircraft and artillery, facing a Commonwealth army dug in defensively with no way forward except going through them.

Given the nature of the desert war, this isnt fixable without a POD that basically turns Italian NA into a country with a good road and rail infrastructure. Now why would the Italians invest all this money (come to that, in the 30's, where are they going to FIND the money...)
Without this infrastructure, the desert war is always going to be bouncing east-west, as the advancing forces run out of supply and grind to an exhausted halt. In OTL, the Germans usually did better at the fighting, the British at the logistics.

And what happens if Eric intervenes? Not a lot, actually. Egypt/Suez was emotianally important to Britain, strategically not a lot...
Convoys didn t use Suez, they were going around the cape. If Egypt falls, Rommel is looking east at a barren wasteland that makes Tripolitania looks positively metroplolitan. The oil is at the FAR end of this, and as far as the British are concerned, isnt vital (all the UK oil was coming from America), so they will destroy the wells. Leaving the Germans with the unfortunate issue that the USA and the UK are the two countries which basically supply the world oil industry...
Getting across this desert will involve a major investment either in time (to build a railway) or trucks (which simply arent available, not is the petrol for them, unless you cancel Barbarossa). Time isn't on germanies side, the allied forces are getting steadily stronger.

Egypt and the oil are basically a chimera that would divert and trap Germany to no useful purpose.
 
Crete was (in some Germans circles) thought of as just part of an ambitious plan: take Crete. Use it as a base to take Cyprus. Use Cyprus as a base to take Alexandria. Three bounces, all by a series of airborne landings. Probably totally unrealistic under just about any circumstances. In any case, the casualties the airborne forces took in Crete made any additional offensives impossible.

If Crete was a walk-over for the Germans they might have considered the rest of the plan, though I doubt that, given the German emphasis on Barbarossa. I'm not sure how much the British had in Cyprus.
 
The Germans are caught in a Catch-22 type scenario. In order to take the Middle East via North Africa, they need to take Alexandria and the Suez. In order to take Alexandria and the Suez, they need additional forces operating in North Africa. In order to get additional forces to North Africa, they need additional supply capability, and in order to increase their supply capability, they need Alexandria.

Their only chance is to convince Turkey to join the war as a belligerant power. Perhaps a walkover in Crete and a follow up walkover in Cyprus would do the trick, along with massive industrial supplies and military equipment to Turkey. But that might not even be enough - we might have to see the Soviet Union well and truly on the ropes for Turkey to get involved.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
That assumes that Nazi anti-Jewish policy was a policy against all Semites. But it wasn't. We use 'anti-semitic' to describe it, but thats a quirk of European languages. The Nazis broadcasted propaganda in Arabic, and there were Nazi agents throughout the Middle East, working with Arabs in various capacities.

"Nazis hate Semites" is a very simplistic and inaccurate way of describing Nazi racial policy.
Sorry to say, but you're mistaken; Nazis did consider Arabs and Jews as part of the same Semitic race. And just because they broadcasted propaganda in Arabic doesn't mean they liked Arabs. The Germans broadcasted propaganda in Russia and the Balkans and even raised some Slavic units, but we all knew how Nazis felt about Slavs. They only got chummy with Arabs to undermine the Allied war effort in the Middle East.

Here's a good summary of Nazi views on Arabs from Project Aladdin:

20
What did the Nazis really think about Muslims?

According to the Nazis' racist ideology, Arabs are racial Semites and thus subhumans, similar to Jews. In his book, Mein Kampf, Hitler described the struggle for world domination as an ongoing racial, cultural and political battle between Aryans and non-Aryans. He envisaged a "ladder" of racial hierarchy, asserting that German "Aryans" were at the top of the ladder, while Jews and Gypsies were consigned to the bottom of the order. On Hitler's racial ladder, Arabs and Muslims occupied a servile place, held in much the same contempt as the Jews.
Hitler made a personal remark in 1939 in which he referred to the populace of the Middle East as "painted half-apes that ought to feel the whip".
As in other instances, however, the Nazis never allowed their ideological views to get in the way of more urgent political considerations. The Nazis recognized the importance of wooing the Arab and Muslim world to their side and, in their public proclamations, downplayed their real views of Muslims and Arabs. When Mein Kampf was being translated into Arabic in 1938, Hitler himself tactfully proposed to omit from it his "racial ladder" theory.


21
What was the attitude of Muslims towards the Nazis?


Throughout the 1930s, the Nazis tried to exploit Arab and Persian resentment of Britain's colonial domination of the Middle East. The Nazis promised the Arabs "liberation" from the French and British, a promise which many in the Arab world, not grasping the racist character of a Nazi regime that would likely have reduced them to slaves in their own land, took at face value.
Although there was sympathy for Nazi Germany across much of the Muslim world, this was mostly on the grounds of strong anti-British hostility rather than support for Nazi racist doctrines, and it rarely includes an anti-Semitic element. While for the vast majority of Muslims the war in Europe remained a distant conflict, the Nazis managed to recruit some Muslims directly. Two SS divisions were raised from Albanian and Bosnian Muslims, but the Nazis soon discovered that these units were militarily ineffective and unmotivated to fight for the Third Reich. The Nazis made much propaganda about the meeting between Hitler and Haj Mohammed Amin al-Husseini, the Mufti of Jerusalem, which took place on November 21, 1941. Al-Husseini or the Muslims troops fighting on the side of the Wehrmacht were not representative of Muslim sentiments in the course of World War II. Hundreds of thousands of Muslim soldiers from Africa, India, and the Soviet Union fought in the Allies' armies to help to defeat fascism at places like El-Alamein, Monte Cassino, the beaches of Provence, and Stalingrad.
 
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My TL Manstien in Africa has developed this extensively


but to the previous poster on Rommel winning the first battle of Aleimein.... it would require several things things... 1 Rommel doesn't pause for a day to conduct recon and work out his attack; this was critical because a lot of British armor was still in the south trying to get to Aleimein, the Africa Corps might have been able to overrun some critical elements of the defensive line before they got there and in turn collapse the line. 2 Not put his attack in against the South African's at the coast who actually had enough defensive artillery available to not be overrun, instead the attack would need to be totally focused on the indians and new zelanders to the south who had less support and where vulnerable to encirclement. 3 the auk doesn't conduct a flexible defense after the indian brigade is shattered but keeps his forces in place allowing Rommel to knife behind his forces, encircle them and force their surrender

Even though supply convoys where not comming to Alexandria (going around the cape) the loss of it as a base for the RN and the loss of all the airbases around it effectively makes axis supply lines very secure (the RN would be compelled to retire into the red sea) and Malta can then only be supplied from one direction likely ensuring its abandonment Rommel would then have more stable supply lines and have the ability to project his forces south or east at his discretion... its not impossible that if he captured Alexandria off the march that documents about operation torch might be captured which has some interesting butterflies
 
A Mediterranean Strategy is always very interesting and could be war winner if done properly. May I contribute a mini-TL.


The PoD is that Goering dies somewhere around 1939-1940 or so and Albert Kesselring takes over the Luftwaffe with Ernst Udet as his junior officer and both of these two know the limitations of the Luftwaffe much better than Goering ever did, with the latter using the Luftwaffe as a tool to keep power after his diminished influence on foreign policy after the Sudetenland Crisis. Kesselring knows the Luftwaffe lacks the range, pilots and aircraft for total air superiority over Britain and gives Hitler a much more realistic appraisal of the Luftwaffe's capabilities. Only temporary air superiority over southern England would be doable and even then an invasion is not guaranteed success.

Kesselring and several German military leaders convince Hitler to do a Mediterranean Strategy instead of fighting the BoB. Hitler agrees as this also supports his fascist colleague dictator in Libya as his army is performing badly. Infrastructure in Sicily, however, is too lacking to accomodate two thousand or so German aircraft and the plan to take Malta is postponed while mock preparations for an invasion of Britain continue. German engineers arrive and start to expand existing Regia Aeronautic facilities and improvise some new ones. The invasion occurs around October/November 1940 and Malta falls. Rommel gets a total of four armoured divisions which is the maximum possible although the Axis does have air superiority in the waters around Malta and Sicily which makes sure the supply situation better.

Egypt falls in spring 1941 at the latest and now Britain finally gets a peace minded leader like Halifax or Churchill clings on. In the latter situation, the Germans could send Luftwaffe detachments to Syria and harass Iraq and Cyprus from there. This would also allow for more direct support of the uprising in Iraq against Britain...
 
The thing about Nazi racial theory is that it didn't strictly govern the way they handled the populations they conquered. The Germans cooperated extensively with various Slavic groups in conquered and allied territories. Far more important is the political considerations which in this case would strongly favor some sort of quasi-independant Pan-Arab(maybe excluding Egypt) fascist state. Persia would probably be cooperative, but joining the Axis outright would only be possible if the Germans could support them militarily. Turkey would feel pressue to join the Axis as well, but they could just as easily remain neutral.

This would all take considerable resources and effort and the Axis would probably gain little from this campaign except maybe keeping Italy in the war longer. The Soviets will eventually turn the tide in the East with or without Germans in Persia. The only possible game-changer would be if the Germans could somehow capture the Caucasian oil more-or-less intact, but that would be pretty difficult to pull off.
 
Wouldn't there be a few sociopolitical complications since Arabic is a Semetic language (or at least distantly related), and the Nazis are anti-semetic? I know some in the Middle East, like Iraq and Persia, were anti-British, but do they really think the Germans a better alternative?
 
I've always thought that in the Med the sooner the better. If Hitler could work things out with Mussolini he could deploy 4 mobile divisions in Libya and start attacking by late 1940. That would give the Axis 6 months of campaigning before Barbarossa, while Britain is being held down with the Blitz and Uboat "Happy Time". The North African campaign conducted at this time would not compete with much else, especially as far as the Panzerwaffe is concerned. Without OConnor's offensive the Axis could use Tobruk as their main supply port which would improve their logistics no end.
 
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