Discussion: Indonesian Occupation of Darwin
- Thread starter BlackMage
- Start date
I genrally think you overestimate the Indonesians capability in this TL.
Also I suggest you check out this old thread which discusses a similar scenario.
Edit to add: A more likely TL is DMA's The Northern Australian Regiment... if you neglect the prelude.
Also I suggest you check out this old thread which discusses a similar scenario.
Edit to add: A more likely TL is DMA's The Northern Australian Regiment... if you neglect the prelude.
Last edited:
I've read DMA's excellent timeline, and actually (in an obscure way) based my POD on an event within his timeline (hope you don't mind, DMA); the events of 10-17 March in his timeline, with an Indonesian victory rather than an Australian victory. From there, the entire Australian Katherine front collapses, and events follow as in my timeline.
backstab
Banned
1. This is during the Cold War. If America overtly sides against Indonesia, then that increases the likelihood of Indonesia falling in with the Soviets. Why would you want to anger one of your most important anti-communist satellites just so we can keep Darwin?
Yes they would. Australia had(and still has) important US facilities in South Australia. I do not think they would risk us throwing them out !
2. This is during the Carter years. That might be enough said just there, but America has just emerged from a brutal jungle war that sickened the population. Do they really want to get in a fight with one of the world's most populated nations now?
The US would not send their whole army. May be a carrier BG and a Marine Division. This would be sufficient to tip the balance. The war would be over in weeks and not years, the US loves quick victories. And the support for helping Australia would be different than the support that the population gave the South Veit's.
3. According to http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/how.../armies/ea.asp, Indonesia's military is ranked higher than Australia's.
Figures like that dont mean shit. Like I said, they need to get here and supply their army. A mechinized Army would slaughter an infantry based one ( Especially in the North of Australia).
The only way I can see this happening is if say prior to your events the Australian Government supports an indepentent East Timor. We send Troops and because Indonesia has troops there already , we get hammered and loose most of our Army and our navy.
Yes they would. Australia had(and still has) important US facilities in South Australia. I do not think they would risk us throwing them out !
2. This is during the Carter years. That might be enough said just there, but America has just emerged from a brutal jungle war that sickened the population. Do they really want to get in a fight with one of the world's most populated nations now?
The US would not send their whole army. May be a carrier BG and a Marine Division. This would be sufficient to tip the balance. The war would be over in weeks and not years, the US loves quick victories. And the support for helping Australia would be different than the support that the population gave the South Veit's.
3. According to http://www.strategypage.com/fyeo/how.../armies/ea.asp, Indonesia's military is ranked higher than Australia's.
Figures like that dont mean shit. Like I said, they need to get here and supply their army. A mechinized Army would slaughter an infantry based one ( Especially in the North of Australia).
The only way I can see this happening is if say prior to your events the Australian Government supports an indepentent East Timor. We send Troops and because Indonesia has troops there already , we get hammered and loose most of our Army and our navy.
Yeah sorry, I posted before I had properly reviewed the old thread, so I didn't catch that...
Okay back to the major issues. I see three major problems with your scenario.
1. Logistics: Even leaving aside RAN&RAAF 'interferance' with Indonesian shipping there is still a major problem. Transportation link between Darwin and the South were relitivly patchy... hell it was only in the last decade that a train line connecting it with the rest of the Australian network was finished! So in other words all supplies heading south will need to be carried by truck... this uses a heap of petrol only making things worse.
2. The RAN: Okay the RAN has less overwhelming tech advantage than it does today. Still we are talking about four or perhaps five (depending on how quickly you can rush HMAS Canberra's completion) ships capable of firing SM-1s. In addition you have the six River class Frigates (two are under refit but could probably be rushed into service). Also HMAS Vampire is still in service and HMAS Vendetta had paid off recently (hence still may be in country and in usable condition). Add HMAS Melbourne and the six Oberon SSKs and you have quite a nice little force.
Also I had noted (in the old thread mainly) the various analogies of any resulting air-sea battles to those off the Falklands. This is actually quite wrong... we will mainly be seeing action in open waters (hence fewer problems for Radar, SAM Guidance, etc. due to clutter) and there will be little Anti-Ship missile threat.
3. The RAAF: Okay, as far as A2A goes the RAAF has a significant advantage... first of all the Mirage III has a higher top speed than the F-5. Secondly the Mirage III can be armed both with Sidewinders or Matra Magic short range AAMs (either two or four depending on the number of underwing hardpoints) plus one Matra R530 AAM with a range of 15-18 km... while this may not be significant against more modern aircraft capable of using more advanced versions of the AIM-9 it does provide a major advantage against the AIM-9Bs that the Indonesians have.
In the strike role the RAAF also has a major advantage... the F-111s can outpace the Indonesian F-5s!
Cockroach said:
Well, this is more an Indonesian advantage than a disadvantage. The Indonesians only need to station troops in Darwin and Katherine, since the rest of the Top End is almost uninhabited. We're not talking about much territory here; Darwin to Katherine, that's pretty much it. Hell, you can even take or leave Arnhem Land, since the territory would make capture difficult. On the contrary, the Australian ability to resupply the lines at Katherine would be more difficult than the Indonesian ability, since the Indonesians control Darwin. Any Australian troops that attack the Indonesian lines need to be either trucked there (costing huge amounts of petrol and resources), shipped there (running afoul of Indonesian frigates), or flown there (running afoul of the Indonesian forces on the ground and anti-air defences)
HMAS Melbourne was 2 years away from decommissioning and 35 years old. In 1980, only two of the Adelaide class ships had been completed, and even by speeding up production you'll hardly get more until at least 1981, by which time there are tens of thousands of Indonesian troops in Darwin and the water is full of mines. So, essentially, the RAN has the six River frigates, two Adelaide frigates, six Oberon submarines and an outmoded, almost retired air craft carrier. I haven't been able to find much information on the Indonesian navy (not being able to speak Indonesian), but globalsecurity.org says that in the 1980s they had an American destroyer escort, four American frigates, one Australian fast attack craft (K-16M class), and (depending on the year) submarines from West Germany and light frigates from the Netherlands and Britain. I'm sorry I can't verify exact numbers (yet; although I'll get back to you on this, hopefully), but you can't write off the Indonesian navy. Especially considering that without Darwin, the RAN doesn't have a port in the region.
Yes, I'm very willing to accept that Australia could blow Indonesia out of the sky. But once the Indonesians have naval superiority in the Timor Sea, any fighter that gets close can be shot out of the sky by Indonesian naval forces. Which, granted, is based on the fact of Indonesian naval superiority. But Indonesia's naval forces in 1980, even if somewhat more primitive than Australia, were still a match for the RAN on any day of the week.
I wasn't disputing that they could control Darwin and cause the Aussies hell in the event of a counter offensive. What I was pointing out is that the supply situation make any advance on Alice Spring highly impracticle.
1. You forgot the Perth class DDGs from the Aussie OOB (thats three of the four SM-1 equiped vessels I mentioned).
2. Yes the old Melbourne is out moded but her airgroup of A-4s is equal or better in quality than the Indonesians A-4s. Look at the Falklands to see just how useful similar aircraft could be... of cause the Indonesians have even fewer missile armed ships than the Aussies so they naturally have more problems...
3. Indonesian OOB? 1992. The "light Frigates" are various English and Dutch cast offs, some have been modernised with Exocet and Harpoon but back in 1980 all would only have been armed with Guns and Seacat.
As mentioned above none of the Indonesian ships have any AA weapon more capable than a DP gun or Seacat SAM... neither of which seems likely to be much of a threat to an F-111.
Last edited:
Ah. Yes. I see where you're coming from in the Alice Springs issue, and I am most sorry; I've been thinking about a later version of the timeline, which I THOUGHT I uploaded. I'm sorry about the misunderstanding, which is entirely my fault.
Your comments have been most useful, and I'll use them in upgrading and updating the TL. Thank you for your assistance.
EDIT: OK, I've uploaded Version 2.0 of the TL, which hopefully addresses a few of the logistic and naval issues involved. Hopefully. There's still holes, I know, but working together I'm sure things will work out in the end.
Your comments have been most useful, and I'll use them in upgrading and updating the TL. Thank you for your assistance.
EDIT: OK, I've uploaded Version 2.0 of the TL, which hopefully addresses a few of the logistic and naval issues involved. Hopefully. There's still holes, I know, but working together I'm sure things will work out in the end.
Last edited:
The Sandman
Banned
In this situation, would the Australians try to cause problems for the Indonesians elsewhere? For example, try to involve Papua New Guinea or Malaysia, support separatists in Aceh, Irian Jaya, Borneo, and so forth?
And I still don't understand why the US isn't getting involved; the Australians were genuine (and democratic) allies, and all that we would have to do would be smash the Indonesian Navy and then blockade Darwin until the Indonesians run out of supplies, both of which we were capable of.
And I still don't understand why the US isn't getting involved; the Australians were genuine (and democratic) allies, and all that we would have to do would be smash the Indonesian Navy and then blockade Darwin until the Indonesians run out of supplies, both of which we were capable of.
I agree the Indonesians would die.
Australia on its own could probally beat them however it is highly likely the US will send aid and pretty much certain the UK would if asked (not war winning in the early 80s but would help tip the balance).
Maybe Malaysia could also be brought in to cause Indonesia trouble in the back and further quicken the end of the war.
Australia on its own could probally beat them however it is highly likely the US will send aid and pretty much certain the UK would if asked (not war winning in the early 80s but would help tip the balance).
Maybe Malaysia could also be brought in to cause Indonesia trouble in the back and further quicken the end of the war.
This is ASB territory and no amount of screaming "It was the Carter years" will change that.
The day Indonesia invades Britain, New Zealand, Canada and America will start mobilising expeditionary forces. France will probably get in on the act by the end of the week and there's a good chance the Netherlands and Belgium will despatch at least token forces and I can't see Malaysia and Singapore being too keen on the Indonesians expanding their borders by force less than twenty years after the Confrontation.
The day Indonesia invades Britain, New Zealand, Canada and America will start mobilising expeditionary forces. France will probably get in on the act by the end of the week and there's a good chance the Netherlands and Belgium will despatch at least token forces and I can't see Malaysia and Singapore being too keen on the Indonesians expanding their borders by force less than twenty years after the Confrontation.
Landshark, will all of those expeditionary forces be enough? Once the Aussies get made, you know, it takes an awful lot to cool them down...
Leej said:
I do feel Leej is right-Indonesia has had it. Australia is not going to be short of allies-USA and UK for starters. In the case of the UK, if the PM is one in a bit of a bull-ish mode, say Maggie after '82, I can see a great speech in the House of Commons about how the Aussie's answered the call in 1914 and 1939 now we will aid them in their time of need; bung in HK is still British so the Brigade of Gurkhas is nearby-ish and a small garrison in Brunei...
Add in New Zealand (ok, small military but still) and Malaysia and Singapore if the 5-power pact kicks in. Maybe even Canada sends a token support force?
This wouldn't be the Indonesian Invasion of Australia, more like the 'total destruction of the Indonesian Military'!
Just found another OOB for Indonesia (http://www.hazegray.org/worldnav/asiapac/indones.htm)
So the Indonesians have the following surface units in service now days (hopefully the details will help clear up what was avalible in 1980):
Ahmad Yani (HMNLS Van Speijk/HMS Leander) class frigates -all entered service too late for this TL
Martha Khristina Tiyahahu (RN "Tribal") class patrol frigates -all entered service too late for this TL
Sanadikun (USS Claud Jones) class patrol frigates -yep these are avalible
Hajar Dewantara training frigate -12 months too late
Fatahilah class light frigates -interesting, these are avalible at the right time and are also well armed
Kapitan Patumura (Parchim) class (Type 133.1) ASW/patrol corvettes -way too recent
That gives the Indonesians three modern light Frigates, four older Patrol Frigates plus whatever old hulks have been discargarded between '80 and '02 (presumably various WW2 era Frigates, Corvettes, DEs).
So the Indonesians large surface assets are out numbered...
So the Indonesians have the following surface units in service now days (hopefully the details will help clear up what was avalible in 1980):
Ahmad Yani (HMNLS Van Speijk/HMS Leander) class frigates -all entered service too late for this TL
Martha Khristina Tiyahahu (RN "Tribal") class patrol frigates -all entered service too late for this TL
Sanadikun (USS Claud Jones) class patrol frigates -yep these are avalible
Hajar Dewantara training frigate -12 months too late
Fatahilah class light frigates -interesting, these are avalible at the right time and are also well armed
Kapitan Patumura (Parchim) class (Type 133.1) ASW/patrol corvettes -way too recent
That gives the Indonesians three modern light Frigates, four older Patrol Frigates plus whatever old hulks have been discargarded between '80 and '02 (presumably various WW2 era Frigates, Corvettes, DEs).
So the Indonesians large surface assets are out numbered...
Darkest
Banned
Even though we all agree that, in this age, invasions and occupations are extremely hard unless the Soviet Union or the United States are backing it (and even with the USSR its fairly difficult), BlackMage put together a noble effort in giving Indonesia Darwin.
Give Britain and the USA a war to deal with in the 70s, and then you might be able to pull off Indonesia's invasion. Otherwise... those superpowers just wait for something to happen so they can show off. Its hard to get passed.
Give Britain and the USA a war to deal with in the 70s, and then you might be able to pull off Indonesia's invasion. Otherwise... those superpowers just wait for something to happen so they can show off. Its hard to get passed.
Darkest90 said:
Thank you very much for your compliments, Darkest90. And I've come to agree; more backing is needed from a superpower.
Rest assured, I will try to remedy this. After all, the cause of giving Indonesia Darwin is a noble one, no? To rearrange the geopolitical power structure just for that is a mere trifle, after all. This should be fun.
