Disaster on the Western Front

So I've recently read that the Germans had the opportunity to encircle not one but two French armies in late August and beat up on a third. The armies in question are the 3rd Army in Verdun with the possibilty of forcing the 6th army out of its fortifications on the Moselle and into an open battle nearby while the Germans also missed an opportunity to encircle the 5th Army facing the German right wing. Is it ASB for the Germans to pull off this combination of blows? If not what would be the impact of such a series of defeats? I read that had the 5th Army been encircle this would have led to the right wing hitting Paris from the north instead of moving to the east.
 

Deleted member 1487

So I've recently read that the Germans had the opportunity to encircle not one but two French armies in late August and beat up on a third. The armies in question are the 3rd Army in Verdun with the possibilty of forcing the 6th army out of its fortifications on the Moselle and into an open battle nearby while the Germans also missed an opportunity to encircle the 5th Army facing the German right wing. Is it ASB for the Germans to pull off this combination of blows? If not what would be the impact of such a series of defeats? I read that had the 5th Army been encircle this would have led to the right wing hitting Paris from the north instead of moving to the east.

There are several issues with pulling this off. First of all, the German 6th army was attacking straight into the teeth of the French fortifications along the Moselle, which had the same results as the earlier French attacks into Alsace. It was impossible to frontally force their way through those forts.

The French 3rd army was the most vulnerable, provided a different set of attacks are used, which I explored in this time line:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=128340&highlight=lorraine+offensive

As it was, the French just ran quicker than the Germans could follow. There is no way to make them stand fast in this era before full motorization and the French had intact interior lines of rail, which the Germans did not, thanks to the Belgian sabotaging their lines as the Germans advanced. Ultimately it would take the French being extremely stupid to pull off even one or two of these and fully ASB for all to work. Ultimately the Germans did make their mistakes too, which resulted in OTL, but the French messed up just about as much as humanly possible, but still could not lose despite it all.

Paris is another problem in Schlieffen plan scenarios. It was heavily fortified and garrisoned, which meant that the Germans would need about 250,000 men to besiege it (their estimates), which means that any scenario would require the German army to have an additional two armies in the West for this even to be possible, something which could not have been supported logistically.
 
I had actually read your timeline wiking and was wondering of the 5th Army could be encircled in addition to the 3rd Army at Verdun. Because I had read in another recent thread (this one about the 5th Army), which frustratingly enough I can't find now, stating that 3rd Army would be pulled away from Verdun if 5th Army had been destroyed I was trying to compare dates from your TL to see if 3rd Army would have been encircled by the time 5th Army found itself in trouble. I guess a POD for a more rapid advance would be the Belgians failing to sabotage their railways.
 
danwild6, have you read The Sword Bearers by Corelli Barnett? He spells out who zigged and who zagged on which day in late August 1914. If he is to be believed the German 1st/2nd/3rd Armies were in a position where they could have encircled Lanzerac's 5th French Army, and shouldered aside the BEF. But of course with no Army Group command level there was nobody to see this opportunity and direct these 3 armies in for the kill.

However if it had happened to a reasonable degree I think it may have led to success of the Schliffen Plan.

The 6th Army would have to be used in the line rather than as a reserve. The Germans could halt for a day or two for rest and resupply, and would handily outnumber the French forces in it's path to Paris. The BEF would be stuck out on its own and would probably retreat to the coast. The French would have to fall back along the rest of their line to find the men to hold the Germans in the Paris area which may allow a left wing offensive to succeed.
 
No I haven't but it sounds interesting, I remember reading in a very recent thread on this subject (which I can't find now:mad:) that the Germans didn't organize their armies into army groups which struck me as amazing. I wonder how the war would have been different had the Germans had the foresight to organize in such a way.
 

Larrikin

Banned
Barnett

danwild6, have you read The Sword Bearers by Corelli Barnett? He spells out who zigged and who zagged on which day in late August 1914. If he is to be believed the German 1st/2nd/3rd Armies were in a position where they could have encircled Lanzerac's 5th French Army, and shouldered aside the BEF. But of course with no Army Group command level there was nobody to see this opportunity and direct these 3 armies in for the kill.

I'm not a real big fan of Barnett, he is an historian who comes with an agenda, and very much slants his presentation towards that agenda.

Whilst all historians come to something with a point of view, the best are scrupulous in their use of facts to back up their agenda, Barnett, unfortunately, seems not to be one of these. I've seen him either ignore, or very selectively use contradictory evidence to often to trust him.
 
While CB has a barrow to push where he says each army was on each day is accurate enough to work with. Therefore the conclusion he draws that with an Army Group command level the 3 German armies could have encircled Lanzeracs 5th army and shouldered aside and isolated the BEF is valid enough to play with.
 

Larrikin

Banned
Destroying the 5th

While CB has a barrow to push where he says each army was on each day is accurate enough to work with. Therefore the conclusion he draws that with an Army Group command level the 3 German armies could have encircled Lanzeracs 5th army and shouldered aside and isolated the BEF is valid enough to play with.

The problem with that is that the BEF had already proven that they couldn't be shouldered aside. Both French and Lanzerac were aware of the situation and were moving to ameliorate it. Maybe if WWII communications were in use the Germans could have pulled it off, but not with WWI technology.

That and the fact that the British and French cavalry were doing their job very well in screening what was happening behind them whilst locating the various German columns.
 
Kluck could be trusted to do the right thing, if the Army Group Commander was co-located with Bulow that should be enough to get Hausen (?) and Bulow also doing the right thing. As for the BEF, they only need to be held aside for a day or two, which would take one or two of Kluck's corps, while Lanzeracs army was encircled and then they'd be out in the open no matter what they did.
 
There are several issues with pulling this off. First of all, the German 6th army was attacking straight into the teeth of the French fortifications along the Moselle, which had the same results as the earlier French attacks into Alsace. It was impossible to frontally force their way through those forts.

The French 3rd army was the most vulnerable, provided a different set of attacks are used, which I explored in this time line:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=128340&highlight=lorraine+offensive

.

What ever happened to that TL? Just wondering.
 

Deleted member 1487

What ever happened to that TL? Just wondering.

Real life got in the way and I picked up other interests I wanted to explore. I have been thinking about picking it up again, but with significant retcons given the new information I have learned about the sector. Apparently the French had several batteries of 155mm howitzers on the Meuse heights, tractor driven and their only ones, which helped hold off von Strantz in September. Also, the terrain is more difficult than I thought, which would slow down the tempo of operations. But the idea is still sound and has potential for a wider divergence throughout the war...
 
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