POD: Stalin is wounded in an earlier battle in Poland and is not in command by the time of the Battle of Warsaw. The lack of his political meddling influences the course of Tukhachevski's battle plan.
August, 1920
The Polish and Bolshevik forces girded themselves for battle. Unbeknownst to the Red army, their radio codes had been broken. This resulted in Tukhachevski's striking disposition to be weighted to the north, effectively outside the zone of the coming battle. Pilsudski, the Polish commander, had concentrated his weaker force against the weakest point in the Soviet lines and prepared to strike, hard. The initial successes gave the Polish hope of a crushing victory, but they had failed to capture the Soviet radio station, allowing for distress beacon to be released. The northern wing of the Soviet offensive was now aware of the counter attack and attempted to reorient itself to assist. This took time, meaning they would not be present for days. However, to the south, Budyonny's 1st cavalry army was arriving from Lwow. Pressing harder, aware now that the Poles were winning, the Cossacks struck at the moment of the greatest Polish success. Stunned by this suprise attack the Polish armies were thrown into disarray. The counter attack halted to reorient itself to the new threat to the south. This gave the mauled Soviet armies time to regroup, and, with the help of a newly arrived Tukhachevski, reenter the fray on favorable terms. Over the next three days, the battle would revolve around the Polish attempts to crush each threat as it emerged, but ultimately needing to abandon the field to flee the arriving northern arm of the Soviet attack. Though several units managed to escape, the Polish suffered a crushing defeat.
Warsaw would fall and the remanants of the Polish army would conduct a fighting retreat west. The Soviet forces were mauled despite managing to pull a victory out of defeat. They paused to catch their breath and establish the Polish Soviet Republic in Warsaw. Further west, the political situation had changed dramatically with the failure of the Polish to survive the Soviet onslaught. The western allies assumed that the failure of the Poles and White Russian forces left Europe open to Soviet invasion. They did not realize that the Soviets were at the end of their supply lines and really were unable to continue much further. But the panic engengered by the loss over took reason. The Germans were disarming, but still possesed enough men and firepower to shield the rest of Europe for the Red menace. The British, though wary, were willing to revise the Treaty of Versailles and let their former enemy fight for their interests, rather than commit more British soldiers to the war. The French were horrified by the suggestion, but with the memory of Communist revolution in Germany last year, and the Red army on the border, even Clemancau could not let a communist Germany arise. His nation had enough problems with the communists in France delighting over the success in Poland, what if they were next door in Germany? Additionally, the French army could not be asked to fight again for Germany, especially when questions remained about the loyalty of the troops when confronting the Red army.
Fehrenbach, the new Chancellor, met with the Western Powers in August and received the news that Germany be absolved from many of the requirements of the ToV. Reparations would be deferred until after the hostilities with the Soviets were ended. The Reichswehr would be exempt from having to disarm until after the Soviets were halted, and the issue were be renegotiated then. Also the notion would be entertained about the revision of the Eastern border. All this would prove immensely important to stabalizing the political situation in Germany. The Freikorps, those units that remained, would be folded into the Reichswehr, which would also desist from destroying the 4000 heavy guns that were scheduled for distruction later that year. The additional resources made available by the ToV deferments helps also to stablize the economic situation, which allowed the German people to feel a certain safety for the first time since the end of the War. The Reichswehr and government were aware that this opportunity could not be wasted. The Western Allies would require Germany to reconstitute Poland after the conflict ended, so they needed to make the situation work in their favor. They stalled.
By taking exceptionally long to mobilize their forces, retrain, and rearm, the Reichswehr would seal the fate of Poland. The French and British were aware that Germany did not need nearly so long to organize, but were at a loss about what to do. They could punish Germany by invading the Rhineland again, or blockade her to goad the Reichswehr into action, but these efforts would simply hurt the war effort and make Germnay easier prey to the Red army. Despite vigorous protest, the Germans took their time. By November, the Red army was once again in the field fighting the Poles. Really the fighting had not stopped, but major engagements were delayed until reinforcements could be brought up and supplies stockpiled. The Poles were able to secure sigificant victories in the meantime, defending Lwow successfully, but this proved pointless as the city was cut off further west by the maurading 1st cavalry army. Though able to get supplies from the Czechs, the situation deteriorated as moral dropped. Pilsudski and the other formations attempted to fight the Soviets back without German help, to perserve national honor and also in the realization that that help was not forthcoming. In the interm, German forces moved into Danzig and the Polish corridor to secure a line of communication between the Prussian oblast and Germany proper. Forces poured into East Prussia to prevent a Soviet occupation or attack, but none was forth coming. By January the Poles had been pushed back into Posen, battered and barely able to manage a field presence.
The Reichswehr moved in at this point, linking up with what remained of the Polish armies. Lwow had fallen to assualt earlier in 1921, and all that now remained was Posen. When the Soviet attacks commenced in February, the Polish legion was sacrificed purposly and almost fatalisticly by the remaining Polish commanders. Von Seekt in turn used this sacrifice to turn the flank of the Red army and blunt Tukhachevski's armies. Battles raged throughout the rest of the month, but the Red army was ejected from Posen. The Reichswehr managed to occupy the 1914 border in most places and proceeded to entrench. Citing logistics and the winter, they refused to advance until Spring. What came after were half-hearted raids that reinforced the status quo. By July, the Reichswehr claimed it could not advance further. Trotsky maintained that the revolution must be exported and that the German communists would reorganize and come to the aid of the Red army. However, as 1921 dragged on, it became apparent that Poland was the entent that the Red army would advance. By March it was obvious that the war was winding down. This led to the peace of Koenigsberg being finalized on the 21st. This established a permanent border between Germany and the Soviet Union based on the 1914 border. Lithuania also managed to regain Vilnus. The Soviets were now able to turn their attention East to finish off the remaining White forces and crush von Sternberg.
Negotiations between Germany and the West would resume later that year in Spa, Belgium to assess the new order in light of the situation in the East.