Disaster on the Vistula

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Deleted member 1487

POD: Stalin is wounded in an earlier battle in Poland and is not in command by the time of the Battle of Warsaw. The lack of his political meddling influences the course of Tukhachevski's battle plan.

August, 1920
The Polish and Bolshevik forces girded themselves for battle. Unbeknownst to the Red army, their radio codes had been broken. This resulted in Tukhachevski's striking disposition to be weighted to the north, effectively outside the zone of the coming battle. Pilsudski, the Polish commander, had concentrated his weaker force against the weakest point in the Soviet lines and prepared to strike, hard. The initial successes gave the Polish hope of a crushing victory, but they had failed to capture the Soviet radio station, allowing for distress beacon to be released. The northern wing of the Soviet offensive was now aware of the counter attack and attempted to reorient itself to assist. This took time, meaning they would not be present for days. However, to the south, Budyonny's 1st cavalry army was arriving from Lwow. Pressing harder, aware now that the Poles were winning, the Cossacks struck at the moment of the greatest Polish success. Stunned by this suprise attack the Polish armies were thrown into disarray. The counter attack halted to reorient itself to the new threat to the south. This gave the mauled Soviet armies time to regroup, and, with the help of a newly arrived Tukhachevski, reenter the fray on favorable terms. Over the next three days, the battle would revolve around the Polish attempts to crush each threat as it emerged, but ultimately needing to abandon the field to flee the arriving northern arm of the Soviet attack. Though several units managed to escape, the Polish suffered a crushing defeat.

Warsaw would fall and the remanants of the Polish army would conduct a fighting retreat west. The Soviet forces were mauled despite managing to pull a victory out of defeat. They paused to catch their breath and establish the Polish Soviet Republic in Warsaw. Further west, the political situation had changed dramatically with the failure of the Polish to survive the Soviet onslaught. The western allies assumed that the failure of the Poles and White Russian forces left Europe open to Soviet invasion. They did not realize that the Soviets were at the end of their supply lines and really were unable to continue much further. But the panic engengered by the loss over took reason. The Germans were disarming, but still possesed enough men and firepower to shield the rest of Europe for the Red menace. The British, though wary, were willing to revise the Treaty of Versailles and let their former enemy fight for their interests, rather than commit more British soldiers to the war. The French were horrified by the suggestion, but with the memory of Communist revolution in Germany last year, and the Red army on the border, even Clemancau could not let a communist Germany arise. His nation had enough problems with the communists in France delighting over the success in Poland, what if they were next door in Germany? Additionally, the French army could not be asked to fight again for Germany, especially when questions remained about the loyalty of the troops when confronting the Red army.

Fehrenbach, the new Chancellor, met with the Western Powers in August and received the news that Germany be absolved from many of the requirements of the ToV. Reparations would be deferred until after the hostilities with the Soviets were ended. The Reichswehr would be exempt from having to disarm until after the Soviets were halted, and the issue were be renegotiated then. Also the notion would be entertained about the revision of the Eastern border. All this would prove immensely important to stabalizing the political situation in Germany. The Freikorps, those units that remained, would be folded into the Reichswehr, which would also desist from destroying the 4000 heavy guns that were scheduled for distruction later that year. The additional resources made available by the ToV deferments helps also to stablize the economic situation, which allowed the German people to feel a certain safety for the first time since the end of the War. The Reichswehr and government were aware that this opportunity could not be wasted. The Western Allies would require Germany to reconstitute Poland after the conflict ended, so they needed to make the situation work in their favor. They stalled.

By taking exceptionally long to mobilize their forces, retrain, and rearm, the Reichswehr would seal the fate of Poland. The French and British were aware that Germany did not need nearly so long to organize, but were at a loss about what to do. They could punish Germany by invading the Rhineland again, or blockade her to goad the Reichswehr into action, but these efforts would simply hurt the war effort and make Germnay easier prey to the Red army. Despite vigorous protest, the Germans took their time. By November, the Red army was once again in the field fighting the Poles. Really the fighting had not stopped, but major engagements were delayed until reinforcements could be brought up and supplies stockpiled. The Poles were able to secure sigificant victories in the meantime, defending Lwow successfully, but this proved pointless as the city was cut off further west by the maurading 1st cavalry army. Though able to get supplies from the Czechs, the situation deteriorated as moral dropped. Pilsudski and the other formations attempted to fight the Soviets back without German help, to perserve national honor and also in the realization that that help was not forthcoming. In the interm, German forces moved into Danzig and the Polish corridor to secure a line of communication between the Prussian oblast and Germany proper. Forces poured into East Prussia to prevent a Soviet occupation or attack, but none was forth coming. By January the Poles had been pushed back into Posen, battered and barely able to manage a field presence.

The Reichswehr moved in at this point, linking up with what remained of the Polish armies. Lwow had fallen to assualt earlier in 1921, and all that now remained was Posen. When the Soviet attacks commenced in February, the Polish legion was sacrificed purposly and almost fatalisticly by the remaining Polish commanders. Von Seekt in turn used this sacrifice to turn the flank of the Red army and blunt Tukhachevski's armies. Battles raged throughout the rest of the month, but the Red army was ejected from Posen. The Reichswehr managed to occupy the 1914 border in most places and proceeded to entrench. Citing logistics and the winter, they refused to advance until Spring. What came after were half-hearted raids that reinforced the status quo. By July, the Reichswehr claimed it could not advance further. Trotsky maintained that the revolution must be exported and that the German communists would reorganize and come to the aid of the Red army. However, as 1921 dragged on, it became apparent that Poland was the entent that the Red army would advance. By March it was obvious that the war was winding down. This led to the peace of Koenigsberg being finalized on the 21st. This established a permanent border between Germany and the Soviet Union based on the 1914 border. Lithuania also managed to regain Vilnus. The Soviets were now able to turn their attention East to finish off the remaining White forces and crush von Sternberg.
Negotiations between Germany and the West would resume later that year in Spa, Belgium to assess the new order in light of the situation in the East.
 
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Deleted member 1487

The Treaty negotiations, or rather, revisions, would begin in April of 1921. At Spa the collective Allies, minus the US would meet with Germany to determine what could realistically could be expected now that the geopolitical situation had changed. Germany was to be the shield of Western Europe from the Soviets. British labor troubles and French communist agitation would be driving factors in their willingness to change the harsher treaty provisions. Though Belgium and France would maintain a hard line, they were more flexible than previous.
The revisions would include:
-an expanded Reichswehr, with 350,000 long service, professionals and 250,000 reservists allowed.
-the lifting of restrictions on certain weapons: Artillery up to the 305mm caliber, fighter aircraft, observational aircraft, anti-tank cannons, and other defensive weapons.
-the building of fortifications in the East
-the destruction of numbers of weapons shall be reduced
-the amount required yearly would be reduced by half (this would prove to be the hardest point for Belgium and France to accept. The British would have to take Germany's side in the negotiations, as a stable Germany would be required to resist communist influences and forces.)

The Points that would remain the same:
-Armor, bomber aircraft, and weapons above 305mm caliber would be prohibited, as would gas.
-Naval restrictions would remain in place
-The Rhineland would remain demilitarized
-Austria would be prohibited from uniting with Germany

An additional significant change would include the early admission of Germany to the League of Nations. All these provisions would help take the sting out of the loss of WW1, as the most onerous stipulations were removed. The regaining of territory would significantly reduce anger in the population and the victory would go far to restore the confidence of the people in their government and nation.

The overall effects of this are going to help prevent radicalism in Germany and should help stabilize the Weimar Republic. Though reparations remain and the economic issues of free trade still exist, the revisions go a long way to restoring faith in the efforts of Germany. Germany now also has the task of defending itself and Europe from invasion, which should give the nation purpose and help it focus the people's attention on the Soviets, rather than wallowing in anger against the French. And with the reduced payments, it is less likely that the French will try to occupy the Rhineland. This does not guarantee stability in the European or German scene, but should contribute to maintaining a desire to work within the system for change rather that fueling radicalism in the population and government.

What ideas do you all have?
 
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I would agree that your proposals would have removed a lot of the problems that caused unrest in Germany. I would also allow a return of the monarchy to Germany. I could see Kaiser Wihelm II being replaced by his son or his grandson. This would add even more stability to the government.
 
I would agree that your proposals would have removed a lot of the problems that caused unrest in Germany. I would also allow a return of the monarchy to Germany. I could see Kaiser Wihelm II being replaced by his son or his grandson. This would add even more stability to the government.
I doubt it would be high on any government's list of priorities during the Spa negotiations. The Germans would be more interested in removing/lessening actual Versailles provisions, and the French, British or Belgians wouldn't be that inclined to press for Wilhelm III or, er, his son, Wilhelm III (bloody unimaginative Prussians) to be made Kaiser.
 
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This seems interesting. Are you going to continue this timeline? Maybe you could have Germany remilitarize even further if the Soviets under Stalin start making noise in the thirties. German-Soviet war:D
 

Deleted member 1487

I am planning on continuing, but will need to take a break for a little while. Heading to an internet dead zone...
Anyway, I am not quite sure where I am going to take it, but yes, it will probably take the shape of Germany remilitarizing and standing up the Soviets. Don't expect cooperation between the two nations, and don't necessarily expect Stalin to claim power.
More to come...
 

Susano

Banned
This seems interesting. Are you going to continue this timeline? Maybe you could have Germany remilitarize even further if the Soviets under Stalin start making noise in the thirties. German-Soviet war:D

...thats clichee. Weimar German-Soviet tacit alliance! :D
 
Intriguing...though sadly I know very little about the specific events of this bit of time, so I think some of the changes are probably lost on me. (Ridiculous American public educational system not bothering to give even a glance at Europe during the 1920s...)
 

Deleted member 1487

The later months of 1921 calmed the European political scene significantly. Eastern Europe relaxed, as the borders of the Baltic states and the Soviet Union reached a permanent settlement. The Soviets were occupied with mopping up Siberia and reclaiming Vladivostok, much to the relief of the smaller Eastern European states. Hungary settled into the dictatorship of Admiral Hothy after the brutality of the communist regime of Bela Kuhn. The Hungarian-Romanian border was fixed, to the benefit of Romania. Austria was still somewhat unstable after the ruling of the Allies at Spa preventing them from uniting with Germany. The Alpine state would eventually consolidate and form a mirror government to Germany. Italy though was in a state of unrest. Mussolini marched on Rome and was able to bully the king to cede power. He became Il Duce and set about recreating the greatness of the Roman Empire. France was particularly upset about the collapse of their 'little entente'. Poland was a key ally that proved to be the lynch pin in the alliance. When Poland fell the other Eastern European nations were terrified and looked for a power that would actually come to their aid. Germany looked to be the only power willing to fight the Soviets and, despite the hatred many had for the Germans, would come to be the leader of an alliance system aimed at the Soviets.

The French were horrified that the security that was created with the Treaty of Versailles was so quickly undermined. In fact Germany seemed to be strengthened to a greater degree, as much of the Eastern frontier rallied around the revived nation. The resulting unrest in France would weaken the government and strengthen the clout of the nationalistic rightwing. The additional hits of the revision of the Treaty of Versailles, the resulting reduction in payments of reparations, and the success of the Fascists in Italy proved to be a toxic combination. Fascist parties began to emerge among the nationalists, who began to name themselves things like Action Francais. These groups would seek to copy the success of Mussolini and form a Latin League of Fascist powers, intent on crushing the German threat. For the moment, the government tried to moderate the revisions to the treay of Versailles and raise reparations payments. Overtures were still made to several Eastern European nations like Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, and the Baltic states.

The Czechs were receptive to French overtures, but lack of French support to Poland made Benes worried about the seriousness of the French government. Additionally, the Czechs were surrounded by Germany, Austria and Hungary, so any support in opposing Germany would likely come in the form of a joint war. But with concerns about the Soviets being formost on the minds of many Czechs and Slovaks, the president hedged his bets and opened a dialouge with Germany.

The Romanians also expressed an interest in dealing with the French and Italians, but the impotence in French support for Poland was still fresh in the minds of the king. He also opened a dialouge with the Germans, willing to let business interests, namely oil, create desire by Germany to ensure the independence and integrity of Romania.

The Yugoslavs were so wrapped up in internal crisis, the Soviets were the furtherest from their minds. The worries about a resurgent Italy were more important.

The Baltic states were also afraid and resentful of Germany, but with the Soviets knocking on their door and the Western Powers unwilling or unable to fight for their independence and the assistance of Germany in aiding Lithuania, the door was open to a defensive alliance. As business interests were also crucial with Scandinavia, overtures were made with Sweden and Denmark for 'mutual' defense and aid. As the economies of these nations were so small, it seemed unlikely that they would be much assistance. Germany also seemed to be the big power again, so when a treaty was proposed in later years for a defensive alliance, all three nations signed on.

Now across the "Iron Curtain" the internal politics in Moscow were heating up. It was obvious that the export of the revolution was a failure and resulted in the corresponding loss of influence for Trotsky. As Lenin had also relied upon Stalin to create a seperate base of power to counter Trotsky's military influence, the balance shifted so that Trotsky was in disfavor within the party. Lenin's declining health had raised concerns about leaderships after his death. Lenin himself was becoming scared of the power that Stalin would become a dictator after his death. He expressed as much in his last testament later on, but for the moment, these were just his suspicions. The grand Soviet had an elected post, but Lenin had great influence over who would be the premier. Stalin wanted the post for himself and manuevered ruthlessly for the position. He kept Lenin isolated from the ongoing struggle and from any influence he might have over events.

The international scene also was of grave concern to the Soviet leadership. Germany was shaping up to be the great opponent in the West, which resulted in greater funding of communist groups within Germany to undermine the republic. The cells in Britain and France were also going strong, but worrying developments in the growth of nationalists could undermine the gains made by communist parties. In Germany this resulted in the communist party begin banned, which reduced the political influence of the Soviets on Germany, but underground groups still remained. Italy also had banned the communists, but they still abound in oppostition to the Fascists. Overall the tide had turned against communists in most of Europe, but Soviet agents bided their time, waiting for the anti-communist sentiment to die down.

In Germany that situation had calmed down significantly. With Spartikist revolts and the various Red Republics fresh in the mind of the public, in addition to the Rightist putsch by Kapp in 1920, the war with the Soviets rallied the nation to the government. Previously weak due to the provisions of the Allies and the shame of signing the surrender documents, the legitimacy of the Republic had grown since the victory over the Soviet and the reversal of many of the points of the Versailles Diktat. The public was disillusioned by radicalism of any kind and wanted stability. The expansion of the army, which now had the ability to protect the nation, helped many feel safe for the first time since the end of the war. The economy stablized too, when reparations payments were halted until 1922 and then halved. Though still shaky, the recovery created by the short war still served as a basis for growth in the economy. Additionally, the trade conference in 1922 at Genoa would bolster this growth, as the issue of tarrifs and free trade were discussed by 32 nations. Though not entirely eliminated, Germany was able to negotiate better deals with her neighbors that would help her export driven economy. Eastern European nations would be the greatest recipients of German goods, but the US and Britain would become crucial trade partners as well. The hatred of the French would limit the exchange between the two nations, but this would soften over time and change dramatically later on with the Briand pact.

For the time being, Europe would experience a state of recovery. Germany would be able to argue her grievances in the League of nations as a full partner, thus drawing her into diplomacy as a means of conflict resolution. Weimar Germany would be crucial to stability of the European economy and the legitimacy of the League of Nations.
 
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