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Right from the first: this is NOT a "Japan wins WWII!" thread. This will probably become a longer Pacific war, and more costly for the US, but my considered opinion is that no realistic event or set of events could have allowed Japan to win something recognizable to us as the Pacific War.

That said, here we go...

On Nov. 26th, 1941, Adm. Kimmel received a message from the Navy Dept. It advised that an agreement had been reached with the War Dept. concerning reinforcement of Wake and Midway.
The message started off, “In order to keep the planes of the Second Marine Aircraft Wing available for expeditionary use OPNAV has requested and Army has agreed to station twenty five Army pursuit planes at Midway and a similar number at Wake provided you consider this feasible and desirable. It will be necessary for you to transport these planes and ground crews from Oahu to these stations on an aircraft carrier.” (Navy Court of Inquiry, p. 1177 (Navy)) Adm. Kimmel, upon learning that the Army planes were allowed to fly no more than 15 miles from land, decided to reinforce the two islands with naval aircraft.
Let's assume that the War Department and the Navy Department decide not to authorize the reinforcement of Wake and Midway, or at least keep discussing it for another 10 days. Kimmel isn't likely to act on his own given his record leading up to the attack IOTL.

That means that USS Enterprise (CV6) and probably USS Lexington (CV2) will be in Pearl Harbor on the morning of December 7th, not running fighters to Wake and Midway. (USS Enterprise was scheduled to be in port absent the ferry mission, but I can't confirm USS Lexington's movement orders - help here would be appreciated.)

As the carriers were THE priority targets of the IJN raid (to the point where 2nd wave aircraft were tasked to attack even carriers that had already capsized!), we can safely assume USS Enterprise will be sunk and beyond realistic salvage efforts to return her to fighting condition. If USS Lexington is in port she will share the same fate.

Somewhat less damage will be done to the battle line and other ships in port. Several battleships will still be sunk or crippled, but the carrier(s) can be expected to draw disproportionate attention.

Given this, what happens to the war? How much longer does it last, or do we get one of those paradoxical situations where a tactical victory leads to a greater strategic defeat?

Edit to add: I've started a new thread with a different PoD to achieve the same immediate goal here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=4123506#post4123506
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