Disaster at Midway

CalBear

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All true. HOWEVER... The PBY crews were very inexperienced. When the invasion forces were sighted, their location was given, but no description of the force composition beyond "Main Body". When the Nagumo Force was sighted, the position was more or less correct, but only two carriers were sighted. When the Tomonaga strike force was on the way to Midway, it was sighted, but the PBY only reported "Many planes, heading Midway". No call letters sent, no location.

Nagumo came to grief because he only launched a phase one search pattern. Had he launched a phase two search pattern (in line with his own cautiousness) that would have meant Japanese search aircraft coming over Task Force 16 and 17 at dawn! No Midway strike. Or else a delay to rearm for anti-shipping strikes. Considering how long it took for the USN carriers to finally get into the air...

No one in the IJN used a two-phased search. Fuchida, who was the first to introduce the concept into the Midway discussion post war, stated that it should have been done, but the concept didn't enter Japanese doctrine until the lessons of both Coral Sea AND Midway had been absorbed. See Shattered Sword pages 107-108 for a rather interesting discussion on this matter.
 
No one in the IJN used a two-phased search. Fuchida, who was the first to introduce the concept into the Midway discussion post war, stated that it should have been done, but the concept didn't enter Japanese doctrine until the lessons of both Coral Sea AND Midway had been absorbed. See Shattered Sword pages 107-108 for a rather interesting discussion on this matter.

phx1138
CalBear

Gotcha. But then, this IS AH. I did not know that the IJN NEVER employed two-phased search patterns. But what do either of you think of the effects HAD a two-phase search pattern be employed?:confused:
 
phx1138
CalBear

Gotcha. But then, this IS AH. I did not know that the IJN NEVER employed two-phased search patterns. But what do either of you think of the effects HAD a two-phase search pattern be employed?:confused:
As said, you really have to change the plan. The only way it works is if Nagumo spots Fletcher's CVs before Fletcher starts launching. Fletcher has 3 things going for him: the PBYs, crypto (knowing what the plan is), & Yamamoto's stupid dispositions. If you change the plan so Nagumo is to draw out the U.S. forces & destroy them in preparation for invasion (however it's worded...:rolleyes:), in keeping with Yamamoto's grand strategic objective, & you therefore have him with the cruisers & their VSs, & no demand to do more than suppress attacks from Midway (rather than reduce it), you've done the single thing that gives him a hope of winning.

Once that's done, however, you've just set up Japan for a disaster that will make OTL Midway look like a victory.:eek: Because Nimitz will come steaming back with everything he's got. See the "Midway victory" thread elsewhere on the site for just how screwed Japan is in that case.;)
 
Once that's done, however, you've just set up Japan for a disaster that will make OTL Midway look like a victory.:eek: Because Nimitz will come steaming back with everything he's got. See the "Midway victory" thread elsewhere on the site for just how screwed Japan is in that case.;)

Sounds interesting - could I get a link to that please? "Midway victory" is giving me 8 pages of results...
 
phx1138
CalBear

Gotcha. But then, this IS AH. I did not know that the IJN NEVER employed two-phased search patterns. But what do either of you think of the effects HAD a two-phase search pattern be employed?:confused:
No different. For Nagumo to have a chance, you have to change the plan. He has to hit Fletcher before Fletcher starts launching. Fletcher had 3 things going for him: PBYs, crypto (knowing the plan), & Yamamoto's screwed up dispositons. To get a different outcome, you need Nagmo's objective to be to suppress attacks against him, not reduce Midway. This means he's likely to have the cruisers & VSs, & without the need to reduce Midway, his first mission would be an extensive search, early enough in the day to find Fletcher.

This only sets up a situation that will make OTL Midway look like a victory.:eek: For the results of that, see the "Midway victory" thread elsewhere on the site.
 
Sounds interesting - could I get a link to that please? "Midway victory" is giving me 8 pages of results...
:eek: I had no idea that was so popular...:eek:

And, tho I posted there, my stats don't go back that far anymore...& I can't find it, either.:eek::eek: Sorry.
 
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