Dirty Laundry: An Alternate 1980s

[Reylance]

Was Dirty Laundry in fact the last song written for I Can't Stand Still? And why was Johnny Can't Read the first single? Was that the label's decision, or the desire of Don Henley?

In any case, you might want to change the dates in your first post. In OTL, Dirty Laundry, the second single, debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 on 10/30/1982, which was also the last week on the chart for Johnny Can't Read. Shift that forward by about two months, and there's really no reason for the record label executives to be worried the week after the record's debut any more than in OTL. In OTL, the first single was working its way down the charts. Perhaps they're upset the first song didn't make the Top 40, but they would already be planning on working a second single to radio. (I Can't Stand Still? A different, uptempo track?)

You also need to remember we're a decade before SoundScan, so any record sales would be an estimate. The record wouldn't be a flop until later, when record stores start returning unsold product for credit. Look at old Billboard magazines, and you might see an advertisement bragging that a new album was "shipping gold"; the joke was that some albums ship gold and are returned platinum.

So the question is, why is the label so willing to write off the album in TTL? If they're that confident the album has no hits, the stereotypical thing for the label to do is say "Go back to the studio and give us a radio hit," and late delivery be damned.

 

[Andrew T]

Reylance, thanks for reading and thanks for your input!

Was Dirty Laundry in fact the last song written for I Can't Stand Still?

That, I have to confess, is a conceit. The only person who knows for sure is Henley, and he's not likely to tell us. Don Henley is a notoriously private person; for example, he mostly cooperated with Marc Eliot's To The Limit -- which in itself was almost entirely pro-Henley -- but wound up threatening legal action against Eliot instead.

So: I have no idea when "Dirty Laundry" was actually written, but given that the album is titled I Can't Stand Still (also the name of track 1), and that Henley thought "Johnny Can't Read" was the best single, it strikes me as within the range of permissible artistic license to presume that "Dirty Laundry" was written last.

And why was Johnny Can't Read the first single? Was that the label's decision, or the desire of Don Henley?

Everything I've read suggests that this was Henley's desire. In any event, "Johnny Can't Read" was the first single IOTL, so it's likely to be the same ITTL.

In any case, you might want to change the dates in your first post. In OTL, Dirty Laundry, the second single, debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 on 10/30/1982, which was also the last week on the chart for Johnny Can't Read.

I'm sorry if I was less than clear in my initial post. IOTL, I Can't Stand Still was released on August 13, 1982. Here, Henley ships out a shoddier version of the album a few months earlier, hence the earlier date.

Shift that forward by about two months, and there's really no reason for the record label executives to be worried the week after the record's debut any more than in OTL. In OTL, the first single was working its way down the charts. Perhaps they're upset the first song didn't make the Top 40, but they would already be planning on working a second single to radio. (I Can't Stand Still? A different, uptempo track?)

I could have "I Can't Stand Still" bomb as well -- it's really not a very good song, either -- but to be honest, I love Don Henley's music, and this is going to be a pro-Henley timeline. Focusing on a continued failure of the I Can't Stand Still album struck me as cruel.

You also need to remember we're a decade before SoundScan, so any record sales would be an estimate. The record wouldn't be a flop until later, when record stores start returning unsold product for credit. Look at old Billboard magazines, and you might see an advertisement bragging that a new album was "shipping gold"; the joke was that some albums ship gold and are returned platinum.

Good point, although I think I've written it that sales themselves are low. Returns will also be a problem.

So the question is, why is the label so willing to write off the album in TTL? If they're that confident the album has no hits, the stereotypical thing for the label to do is say "Go back to the studio and give us a radio hit," and late delivery be damned.

I allude to this in footnote 6 of the original post, although I didn't fully document my sources, which include Eliot's book (mentioned above), Marc Shapiro's The Long Run, Don Felder's autobiography, and Laura Jackson's (pretty uneven) Flying High.

Those books paint a pretty uniform picture of Don Henley in 1981 as believing that he could literally release anything and have it go platinum. Asylum knows this -- even though the label is going through serious changes at this point in time, and lots of the new higher-ups think Henley is a prima donna. So I don't think Asylum is going to be confident that the album will be a flop; they're going to think it will sell just as well as the Eagles Live album -- which was also, quite literally "mailed in"; see the aforementioned footnote 6.

When they're caught off guard by how poorly I Can't Stand Still is received ITTL, it's too late. I don't think it's unrealistic that the label might conclude that Henley's music just "isn't right for the 1980s" and drop him; after all, rock music is going through a pretty stark transition at this point in time both ITTL and IOTL.

 

[Reylance]

My main point is that in OTL, almost no one had heard the song Dirty Laundry before buying the album in the first week, and probably within the first two months. The only way the song's absence from the album would have an impact on the first week's sales is if reviewers, having advance copies of the album, rated it significantly worse than in OTL, and that impacted the buying decisions of the public. But I suspect most of those first week sales went to Eagles fans who wouldn't have been dissuaded by some critic's opinion. Thus, I suggest making the call from the label happen about four to six months after the release TTL. At that point, the failure to get a hit at radio after two singles would be apparent. And the comment about sales figures would be clear.

I think it's reasonable to assume that the single released after a hit song does better than it would otherwise. I would suspect a combination of deejays being more willing to play a song by a known commodity, and record labels putting more marketing effort into promoting the single. So perhaps I Can't Stand Still only gets to #80 or so, worse than in OTL.

What if TTL's Henley goes the way of Glenn Frey, and finally gets a big hit recording someone else's song for a soundtrack? Hmmm... Henley performing The Heat Is On?

 

[Andrew T]

What if TTL's Henley goes the way of Glenn Frey, and finally gets a big hit recording someone else's song for a soundtrack? Hmmm... Henley performing The Heat Is On?

I have slightly bigger plans for Don Henley ITTL, as you'll see....

 

[Andrew T]

February 26, 1983

Prodded by Brainbin, I give you the latest installation of Dirty Laundry, in which an icon returns home....

February 26, 1983

After slower-than-expected sales during the holiday season, Atari Corp. pulls its poorly-reviewed “5200 SuperSystem” from the home videogame market, promising an upgraded console “by Christmas of 1983.”[1] To fill the gap, Atari releases the Atari 2600 “E.T. Edition” for $99. The “E.T. Edition” is a cosmetic redesign of the venerable 2600 in black plastic, emblazoned with the movie’s trademark glowing fingers logo and signed by director Steven Spielberg. It comes with two paddles, two classic joysticks, and six game cartridges: Combat, Breakout, Real Sports Baseball, Raiders of the Lost Ark, the all-new Dig Dug, and, of course, E.T.[2]

Two days later, at 9 p.m. EST on your local CBS station, the TV show M*A*S*H* would end its successful five-year run with a season finale that would draw a then-record 125 million viewers. (The finale would record a 60.2 Nielsen rating and 77 share, meaning that literally more than three out of every four homes in which the TV was on were tuned to M*A*S*H*.)[3]

Don Henley stood on the shores of Caddo Lake in Northeast Texas, dripping with sweat. Clad in an ill-fitting black suit, an off-white shirt and a sapphire tie that almost entirely clashed with the rest of his outfit, Henley held aloft a pair of oversized red novelty scissors.

“I am honored, and more than a little humbled, to be here at the ribbon-cutting ceremony for our Caddo Lake cleanup efforts,” Henley began. “I’d like to thank Betty Perez, and everybody at the Nature Conservancy for coordinating our efforts to expand Caddo Lake State Park to include nearly 6,000 acres of Caddo Lake and surrounding wetlands. And, of course, none of this would have been possible without your generous donations of both money and time.” Henley waved expansively to the crowd.

It was a strange homecoming. After he’d been let go by Asylum Records, Don moved, almost on a whim, to tiny Gilmer, Texas – the town of his birth.

"And finally, I'd like to thank the love of my life, Maren, for everything she's done for me." Henley nodded in Jansen's direction, who shyly waved back. She’d moved with Don back to Texas but had been increasingly sick lately, and rarely left the house any more.

Gilmer was forty miles or so to the north of Caddo Lake, and one of the first things Don did when he moved back to Texas was to go visit the lake and try to relive one of the seminal moments of his childhood. He'd found the lake polluted, squalid, and nasty, and resolved to do something about it. Henley set aside his prepared speech for a minute to tell that story.

“I used to come up here as a kid to Potter’s Point,” Henley pointed off in the distance, his voice dropping, “with my dad, to go fishing. He taught me to use the pearl shad underwater lure, and how to throw it just between the Spanish moss and the duckweed.” Don smiled, reminiscing. “I remember the first time I saw a bass fish come out of the murky depths. My eyes were like saucer plates, and my heart was beating in my frail chest. After that, Caddo Lake became my church. If there’s any evidence of divinity on this earth, it exists here. It makes me feel calm, at peace. I feel a part of this, a belongingness.” He took a deep breath. “I’ve been fortunate in my career in that I’ve been able to travel all over the world with the Eagles, doing concerts.” Don’s voice trembled for a moment. “But I’ve never seen any place in the world like Caddo Lake.”[4]

The crowd interrupted with spontaneous applause. Henley smiled, resuming his prepared remarks. “But Caddo Lake isn’t just about beauty. It’s about the legacy we want to leave for our children, and their children. This lake is called ‘Caddo’ to honor the Kadohdacho Indians, who lived here for a thousand years before the arrival of Fernando DeSoto.” He smiled wistfully, thinking back to one of his favorite songs he’d written for the Eagles, “The Last Resort,” in which he’d told the sad story of American colonialism. They brought the white man’s burden down. Brought the white man’s reign.

“Today, Caddo Lake is one of only a few bald cypress savannah swamps remaining in the entire United States. It’s a rare and valuable ecosystem. There are some trees here that are over four hundred years old. There are over four hundred species of plants and animals.” Henley’s voice built to a crescendo. “But reckless drilling,” Henley intoned, interrupting his speech to turn around and point off towards the horizon, “and oil run-off has driven each and every one to the edge of extinction.” He was genuinely angry.

“Now, the lake is silting up. It's in grave danger because it's becoming so full of sediment that it's getting shallower, and the sunlight is penetrating to the bottom -- growing too much algae and lily pads, which are sucking all the oxygen out of the lake, which causes fish to die. There are a lot of problems in the lake; there are chemical contaminants, heavy metals.” Henley looked disgusted.

“So there’s much work, hard work, yet to be done. But today we’re here for the first step, and for that,” he turned, cutting the ceremonial red ribbon, “I am proud to say, ‘let’s begin.’”

On the way out, Henley is cornered by Marshall Lynam, chief of staff for five-term Congressman and House Democratic Majority Leader Jim Wright.

-----

[1] As IOTL, the Atari 7800 is already in development at this time. Atari faced substantial backlash due to the 5200's lack of backwards-compatibility IOTL (along with its numerous other, notorious problems; here, my guess is that with "E.T." established as a "killer app" for the 2600, Atari will move more quickly to realize that a non-backwards-compatible 5200 was a serious mistake.

[2] IOTL, Atari was able to roll out the Atari 2800 in Japan by October of 1983, and reports are that Tramiel discovered the Atari 2600jr motherboards (along with the finished 7800 in the Atari warehouse in Sunnyvale in 1985, so I think it's not unreasonable that Atari could crank out what is in effect a 2800 here in just a few months.

[3] All exactly as IOTL. Unlike certain other timelines, the M*A*S*H* finale remains one of the defining moments of the early 1980s ITTL.

[4] All as OTL, just a decade earlier. You can (and should!) go listen to it here.

 

[Brainbin]

Great to see this back!

Glad to see Atari pivoting to correct grievous errors (and lack of backwards compatibility most certainly is one - which continued to face the video gaming industry long thereafter). What I would love to see are a certain couple of Japanese companies learning from Atari and ensuring that any future consoles of theirs (particularly in any *Fourth Generation) have backwards compatibility. We can only hope that the 7800 will start the Third Generation (in North America) with a bang, rather than... well, a bomb.

Also, it looks like we're seeing the beginning of Don Henley's political career in earnest!

 

[Andrew T]

March 25, 1983

March 25, 1983‎

Two days earlier, in what would become known as his “Star Wars” speech, President Reagan ‎proposes a space-based laser defense system to shoot incoming nuclear missiles out of the sky. ‎Coincidentally, in 1940, Reagan played Secret Service agent Brass Bancroft in Murder in the Air, ‎whose mission was to sabotage a Naval airship testing out the top secret “Inertia Projector,” a ‎death ray that can shoot down airborne planes and missiles. [1]‎

Laura Branigan releases Branigan 2, which would eventually go platinum on the strength of the ‎singles “Solitaire” and “How Am I Supposed to Live Without You,” the latter written by heavy ‎metal artist Michael Bolton, currently on tour with Blue Öyster Cult. [2]‎


Warner Brothers CEO Steve Ross is in his office, reviewing the box office numbers from the ‎previous week’s movie releases. WB Studios’ newest film, the action-adventure-romance flick ‎High Road to China – starring Tom Selleck and Evie Tozer – opened to disappointing numbers ‎despite the fact that it was the only new movie to be released that week. Internally, studio ‎executives blame the movie’s lukewarm-to-terrible reviews, but Ross wants more than blame; he ‎wants answers. His subordinates from the Studios are standing, nervously, in Ross’s office, ‎waiting to see which of them would bear the brunt of Ross’s legendary temper.‎

‎“Tip!” Ross thundered, turning his sights on Thomas “Tip” Everett, WB’s Comptroller. “You’re ‎the one trying to put lipstick on this pig?”‎

Everett stammered. “S-s-sir, High Road opened at number one at the box office, and grossed ‎nearly $5 million dollars. It outpaced pretty much every other film by two-to-one or more, ‎except for…” Everett’s voice trailed off.[3]‎

‎“Except for Raiders. Except for a two-year-old re-run” – Ross spit out that word with complete ‎disdain – “that Paramount pushed up just to go head-to-head with our movie.[4] You know, our ‎movie?” Ross reached for his copy of the Chicago Sun-Times. “I’ve got fucking Roger Ebert ‎asking in print, ‘Why would you see a pale imitation of Raiders of the Lost Ark when you could ‎watch the real thing?’ And the worst part is that he's right. Everybody knows we jumped at the chance to cast Tom Selleck as the lead after he had to turn down Indiana Jones. 'Can't miss,' said all your producer friends. 'Selleck should have been Indy,' they said. Idiots. And now I'll be lucky if this thing breaks even."[5]‎

After weathering Ross's storm, Everett built up his nerve to speak back. ‎“Sir, you’re looking at it the wrong way,” he said, tentatively. After swallowing hard, he pulled out ‎a green-and-white printout containing sales projections he'd received from Atari. “Remember that Paramount sold us the videogame rights to Raiders back in ‎‎1981. Every kid who goes to see Raiders this week is putting five bucks in the pocket of ‎Paramount, but when he leaves, he’s going to bug his parents to give us thirty bucks for the video ‎game or a hundred for a new Atari if he doesn’t have one. Heads we win, tails they ‎lose.”[6]‎

Ross paused for a second, and then actually smiled. “Not bad, Tip. Not bad." After a beat, he continued, "I mean, for an accountant. Say, have you heard the one ‎about the lady who goes to the doctor….”‎

‎“She's got six months to live, right,” replies Everett, cutting short one of the oldest accountant jokes in ‎history. “And the doctor advises her to marry the accountant, so it’ll feel like twenty years?”‎

Now Ross guffawed. “You’re all right, Tip. Don’t take yourself too seriously. Hey, at least you're not a lawyer. And let’s dump ‎some advertising bucks into this videogame, see if we can’t at least break even on this High Road ‎bomb.” As his subordinates shuffled out of Ross’s office, he added, “And let’s make sure we ‎never do something this stupid. Let’s make sure we own all the video game, all the ‎merchandising, all the everything rights associated with every movie we make from now on.”‎

‎----------------‎

‎[1] Unchanged from OTL.‎

‎[2] Branigan 2 didn’t quite make platinum; it’s only certified gold IOTL. (Consider this a very ‎minor butterfly.) Just as IOTL, “How Am I Supposed to Live Without You” spent three weeks ‎at #1 on the Billboard Adult Contemporary chart. “Solitaire” is Branigan’s third-biggest hit both ‎IOTL and ITTL, peaking at #7 on the Billboard Hot 100. Michael Bolton’s early hard rock ‎career is, of course, just as IOTL. ‎

‎[3] IOTL, High Road to China grossed $8.2MM in its first week when, as here, it was the sole ‎new movie released that week.‎

‎[4] IOTL, Raiders was reissued the next week, along with seven other new films, and grossed ‎nearly $2 million on just 628 screens. Here, it’s pushed up a week where it faces very little ‎competition, and grosses more than twice as much – almost beating out the first-run movie (High ‎Road)‎

[5] Selleck turning down the role of Indiana Jones and being offered the lead in High Road is OTL. High Road's budget is $15 million; IOTL, it will gross $28MM for a slight profit. Here, it doesn't quite break even due to the unfavorable head-to-head comparison with Raiders.

‎[6] The Raiders-Atari deal is as per OTL -- and Raiders was generally considered to be a pretty good 2600 game. The only difference is that ITTL, Atari isn't losing Warner Brothers' money hand-over-fist because of “E.T.”‎

 

[Unknown]

Please have St. Louis win the World Series in 1985 (just take away that bad call from the umpire, or, heck, have it motivate the Cardinals for game seven.).

Or have Nebraska win the 1984 title game over Miami (that game was one play away from Nebraska winning, as depicted in Land of Flatwater).

Good updates.

 

[Andrew T]

Unknown: you're talking about a World Series that's three years away! If St. Louis is unable to fleece John Tudor away from the Pirates after the end of the '84 season, they won't have the pitching depth to send Dave LaPoint to the Giants for Jack Clark.

Replace Tudor and Clark with Dave Green and Dave LaPoint, and the Cardinals probably lose the '85 NL East to the Mets....

 

[Brainbin]

“Except for Raiders. Except for a two-year-old re-run” – Ross spit out that word with complete ‎disdain – “that Paramount pushed up just to go head-to-head with our movie. You know, our ‎movie?” Ross reached for his copy of the Chicago Sun-Times. “I’ve got fucking Roger Ebert ‎asking in print, ‘Why would you see a pale imitation of Raiders of the Lost Ark when you could ‎watch the real thing?’ How could we let this happen?”

I like this - a more serendipitously-timed re-release that cements Raiders as one of the great crowd-pleasing blockbusters. And an excellent way to have the game piggyback off that success and the proven track record with E.T. You're striking that delicate balance of having Atari do better by good fortune, at least as much as by good management. A shame you didn't find room to mention that Tom Selleck was, of course, offered the role of Indy before his Magnum contract forced him to turn it down; that adds an extra jolt of poignancy to these proceedings. I do wonder if it might temper expectations for the upcoming Romancing the Stone - generally regarded as the best Indy ripoff IOTL.

‎

“Sir, you’re looking at it the wrong way,” Everett replied. After swallowing hard, he pulled out ‎a balance sheet. “Remember that Paramount sold us the videogame rights to Raiders back in ‎‎1981. Every kid who goes to see Raiders this week is putting five bucks in the pocket of ‎Paramount, but when he leaves, he’s going to bug his parents to give us thirty bucks for the video ‎game or a hundred for a new Atari if he doesn’t have one. Heads we win, tails they ‎lose.”[5]‎

I like this Everett fellow, for many reasons One of which is, he really understands the lessons taught by Star Wars with regards to merchandising potential. I'm going to predict that Christmas 1983 is going to be a big season for Atari - you're continually providing new avenues for revenue for the company, especially with the US now coming out of its recession. It really makes OTL seem even more anomalous - that an industry can virtually collapse just as the rest of the economy is showing strong recovery.

(One semantic correction: he would most likely be pulling out either a classified income statement or a sales projection, not a balance sheet.)

Ross actually smiled. “Not bad, Tip. I mean, for an accountant. Say, have you heard the one ‎about the lady who goes to the doctor….”‎

‎“She's got six months to live, right,” replies Everett, cutting short one of the oldest accountant jokes in ‎history. “And the doctor advises her to marry the accountant, so it’ll feel like twenty years?”‎

Now Ross guffawed. “You’re all right, Tip. Don’t take yourself too seriously. Hey, at least you're not a lawyer. And let’s dump ‎some advertising bucks into this videogame, see if we can’t at least break even on this High Road ‎bomb.”

Great exchange - I laughed out loud, for many reasons (Always great to be in on an inside joke - literally, in this case.)

Unknown: you're talking about a World Series that's three years away! If St. Louis is unable to fleece John Tudor away from the Pirates after the end of the '84 season, they won't have the pitching depth to send Dave LaPoint to the Giants for Jack Clark.

Replace Tudor and Clark with Dave Green and Dave LaPoint, and the Cardinals probably lose the '85 NL East to the Mets....

If he's going to make a baseball-related request, then so am I: Please have the Blue Jays follow their OTL trajectory until... 1994, to pick a random year out of the air, at which point you can change it to your liking. (And in 1994, have the Expos win the World Series, would you? Montreal really should hold onto their MLB team, given history.)

 

[Andrew T]

(One semantic correction: he would most likely be pulling out either a classified income statement or a sales projection, not a balance sheet.)

It's obviously a projection and not a balance sheet; that was just careless writing on my part. I'll go back and edit and also include the bit about Selleck; I had that in my notes (from Wikipedia, obviously) and should have put it in the update. Thanks.

If he's going to make a baseball-related request, then so am I: Please have the Blue Jays follow their OTL trajectory until... 1994, to pick a random year out of the air, at which point you can change it to your liking.

To me, the seminal moment in Blue Jays history was the trade of Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter prior to the 1991 season; I'll need to research and see how close that one was to falling through before I figure out what happens to your Jays. Fundamentally, though, they're a solid organization during the late 80s and early 90s and therefore a lot less susceptible to butterflies.

(For example, any replay of the 1989 season is likely to give you the Blue Jays running away with the division, even though some strange stuff befell the Orioles during the last weekend of the season, like Pete Harnisch missing his start because he stepped on a nail while jogging outside the SkyDome....)

 

[Brainbin]

To me, the seminal moment in Blue Jays history was the trade of Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter prior to the 1991 season; I'll need to research and see how close that one was to falling through before I figure out what happens to your Jays. Fundamentally, though, they're a solid organization during the late 80s and early 90s and therefore a lot less susceptible to butterflies.

I was very young when this happened, and haven't studied baseball history too closely, but I would agree; those two turned them from a solid team into a great one (and were, incidentally, my two favourite players - though I think they were everyone's two favourite players). Really, what I'm asking is if there's any way you can prevent the team from falling off a cliff after the strike in 1994. Surely, they can at least remain playoff-worthy? Or manage a winning season? I know they're in a tough division, but still...

 

[modelcitizen]

I subscribed.

I look forward to reading this.


When I saw someone asking "Governor Don Henley?" a corner of my memory perked up:
"This is your brain. This is your brain on Don Henley!"

Google, google, google...

http://www.lyricsmania.com/don_henley_must_die_lyrics_mojo_nixon.html

This is the sound of my brain.​

Then I said, this is the sound of my brain on Don Henley!​

 

[vultan]

It's back! This is excellent!

I have no specific comments at the moment, but just know that I continue to follow this with great interest.

 

[Orville_third]

This is interesting. Perhaps WB can make money off another competitor by doing Marvel video games.

Will DC change as a result of this?

 

[Kalvan]

Won't work. Activision already had the Marvel console license by then. Remember Spider-Man for the 2600.

 

[Andrew T]

Really, what I'm asking is if there's any way you can prevent the team from falling off a cliff after the strike in 1994. Surely, they can at least remain playoff-worthy? Or manage a winning season? I know they're in a tough division, but still...

From 1983 to 1993, the Blue Jays won 89, 89, 99, 86, 96, 87, 89, 86, 91, 96, and 95 games, winning the division 5 times out of 11. That's awfully hard to sustain for a decade, unless you have some unchecked advantage (like, say, being able to outspend your rivals by 2:1 or more).

For example: I could undo the stretch-run trade that sent David Cone to the Blue Jays in 1992 for future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent; that would certainly help the Jays during the mid-to-late 90s, but it would also eliminate their World Series win in 1992. It's hard to win now AND build for the future unless you have a massive advantage over your opponents.

The real problem, of course, is that 1995 is when the Yankees start to become The Yankees by restraining Steinbrenner's worst impulses and spending freely and intelligently. Lord knows I'd love to make that go away, but I'm not sure it can be done without putting expansion teams in Queens and New Jersey....

 

[Andrew T]

It's back! This is excellent!

I have no specific comments at the moment, but just know that I continue to follow this with great interest.

Thanks! I had about 18 pages of The Power and the Glitter! waiting for me when I got back, along with five dozen pages of That Wacky Redhead, a bunch of good updates on An Alternate Rise of the Blockbuster, and so on and so on. Those are some collectively big shoes to fill!

 

[Brainbin]

From 1983 to 1993, the Blue Jays won 89, 89, 99, 86, 96, 87, 89, 86, 91, 96, and 95 games, winning the division 5 times out of 11. That's awfully hard to sustain for a decade, unless you have some unchecked advantage (like, say, being able to outspend your rivals by 2:1 or more).

For example: I could undo the stretch-run trade that sent David Cone to the Blue Jays in 1992 for future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent; that would certainly help the Jays during the mid-to-late 90s, but it would also eliminate their World Series win in 1992. It's hard to win now AND build for the future unless you have a massive advantage over your opponents.

All right, that's fair. I suppose I would, given the choice between the two, rather have them bask in their back-to-back glory, as IOTL, followed by their epic (and ongoing) drought. Of course, this now means that you're obliged to have the Expos win the World Series in 1994 (Or even better, what is no doubt MLB's worst nightmare: Blue Jays vs. Expos for the World Series. No matter who wins, it won't be an American team. It's like the NHL in the 1980s all over again! )

 

[Andrew T]

December 7, 1982

We’re going backwards just a bit, because researching and writing about Atari is so incredibly ‎fun, even though I had plans for politics, baseball, music and movies that all got pushed back. ‎But don’t worry, those updates are still in the pipeline….‎


December 7, 1982‎

The sports world is abuzz with rumors that the San Diego Padres have offered free agent first ‎baseman Steve Garvey a five-year contract worth $6 million. The former MVP and eight-time All-‎Star first baseman is said to be “weighing other offers.”[1]‎

The New York Times reports that the unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen to a record 10.8%, ‎with 11.9 million people out of work. Meanwhile, Laura Branigan’s “Gloria” begins a six-week ‎stay as the nation’s number one song, displacing Toni Basil’s cheerleader-anthem “Mickey.”[2] ‎

‎-------‎

Ray Kassar, CEO of Atari, Inc., is meeting with four of his division heads – Coin-Op chief Jed ‎Margolin [3], Design & Marketing head Regan Cheng [4], Software Division president Carla ‎Meninsky [5], and Steve Mayer, who had recently been assigned by Warner to oversee Atari’s ‎combined Computer and Video Game Hardware divisions, now simply called the “Hardware ‎Division.”[6]‎

KASSAR: Okay, folks, we’ve got a problem. Warner released their numbers today, and even ‎though they’re good and the Wall Street folks are happy [7], there’s a lot of danger lurking ‎beneath the surface. I’m circulating our consolidated balance sheets for the past six months, ‎along with the December projections, broken down by product ID, and you’ll see the problem.‎

MARGOLIN: The problem is that the economy’s in the toilet? We’re still making money from ‎arcades over in Coin-Op….‎

KASSAR: No, no, Jed; you’re right that Coin-Op’s doing okay for this economy. The problem ‎is that sales of the 5200 are way below projections. We’re losing market share to Coleco, for ‎God’s sake! How can that be?‎

MAYER: Beats me. The 5200 is considerably more advanced than the ColecoVision, Ray. It’s ‎basically our 800 hardware in a closed-off box with a new operating system.‎

MENINSKY: Isn’t that the problem? The 5200 is great hardware, but it doesn’t run our own ‎VCS games.[8] Meanwhile, Coleco’s box has a module that lets you run those classic 2600 ‎games on their system! Ray, I know you’ve got Legal trying to stop it, but right now, that’s ‎Coleco’s major selling point. So look, I’m a suburban mom buying my kids Christmas presents. ‎We’ve already got an Atari 2600; it’s five years old, and the kids want something new. ‎Ironically, if I buy another Atari, that means throwing away all those 2600 games. But hey, if I ‎buy the Coleco, it’s cheaper, and you can still use all those games.[9]‎

CHENG: It doesn’t help that the Coleco box looks a lot like our 5200, right down to the ‎keypad-joysticks and everything. It reinforces in the customer’s mind that it’s basically the same ‎thing, even though the 5200 has a lot more under the hood.‎

MAYER: With all due respect to Carla and Regan, I don’t think that piece of shit Coleco box is ‎our problem. Our problem is this. [Hands out an advertisement for the Commodore 64.] [10]‎

KASSAR: Ugh. Jack Tramiel. What the hell is wrong with that guy?‎

CHENG: He’s a secret agent sent by the KGB to destroy the U.S. computer industry, kind of ‎like the way the Swiss sent Lenin back to Russia in 1917?‎

KASSAR: Don’t make me fire you, Regan. [Pause, and a wry smile.] Seriously, though, ‎what’s he selling that fucking 64 for now? Five hundred bucks?‎

CHENG: $399 after rebates, and everything I’ve seen suggests he’s ready to go even lower.‎

KASSAR: Lower? Mayer, what’s our production cost on your 1200XL?‎

MAYER: Uh… about two hundred dollars. We were looking at a launch price of $899 until….‎

KASSAR: Yeah, until the 64 came along. I know. Then we had to triple the RAM on the 800 ‎and slash its price and rush the 1200XL through to development.‎

MAYER: Well, a lot of that is just bad luck. The 64 isn’t much different than the 800 on the ‎inside; in fact, it has about as much free RAM as our 48K 800 after you load BASIC. [11] The ‎difference is that the FCC changed its licensing requirements after we made the 800, so ‎Commodore can crank those little bastards out in cheap-ass plastic cases. Meanwhile, we were ‎stuck manufacturing a multi-board 800 in a big, heavy, metal-shielded case.‎

KASSAR: Give it to me straight: can we sell the 1200XL for four hundred bucks and make ‎money on it?‎

MAYER: Not… I mean… Well, a little. Yes. Yes, we can sell it at $399.‎

KASSAR: What about $299?‎

MAYER: No. No way. But do you really think Tramiel is going to slash prices again?‎

CHENG: Of course he will. Look, it says it right there in the advertisement – “we make our ‎own IC chips, plus all of the parts of the computer they go into.” Every time we make an 800 – ‎or a 1200XL, or a 5200 – we’ve got to buy the 6502 chip from MOS. And you know who owns ‎MOS? Commodore!‎

MAYER: It doesn’t make sense to look at another 8-bit chip, Regan. Even with Commodore’s ‎markup, the 6502 is still ten times cheaper and more powerful than what we can get from Zilog ‎or Intel. Now if you wanted to go sixteen, or thirty-two bit, we’ve got some designs that use the ‎Motorola 68000 and Nat Semi’s 16032, but those are selling for $200 a chip, just for the ‎processor. You’re talking about a thousand-dollar system at a minimum.[12]‎

MARGOLIN: Yeah, we used the 68000 to make the Food Fight console. Hell of a chip.‎

KASSAR: But right now, all of our hardware uses the 6502, right?‎

MAYER: Right.‎

KASSAR: So we’re never going to be able to sell the 1200XL cheaper than Commodore sells ‎the 64?‎

CHENG: Exactly. And it’s worse than that; we’ve already gotten terrible reviews on the ‎‎1200XL because we closed off the 800’s slots and the PBI. Reviewers are already treating it like ‎it’s a knockoff of the 64, even though the hardware is superior.‎

MAYER (reluctantly): Yeah.‎

KASSAR: So why are we introducing this thing? I mean, Steve, no offense, I know it’s your ‎baby.‎

MAYER: It’s a stop-gap to bridge us to Sierra. What else can we do? We can’t just go dark on ‎the computer market for two years and then try to come back; software developers will flock to ‎Apple and Commodore and we’ll be left introducing a system with no software and no support. ‎We need to maintain a share of the market – even if we’re only selling the system at a modest ‎profit – and stay in the game until we can move away from the 6502.‎

KASSAR: Can’t we just reverse-engineer the 6502 and fabricate a version ourselves?‎

MAYER: No. I mean, Commodore already ripped it off from Motorola back in the 70s and had ‎to settle a lawsuit and pay Motorola just to bring the 6502 to market. If we tried to do the same ‎thing, we’d get slapped with an injunction immediately. It’d be a total waste of R&D.‎

MARGOLIN: Wait a minute. I knew Chuck Peddle back when he was at Motorola. Smart son-‎of-a-bitch, but he had an even smarter son-of-a-bitch working with him, guy by the name of ‎Mensch. Didn’t he have some sort of falling-out with Commodore?‎

MAYER: Yeah, Bill Mensch. He and Peddle left Motorola, patented the 6502, and settled the ‎lawsuit just before Commodore bought out MOS. Then Peddle stayed at Commodore and ‎designed the VIC-20, while Mensch left to form Western Design Center back in... oh, ’77 or ‎‎’78.[13]‎

KASSAR: So what’s Western Design doing now?‎

MARGOLIN and MAYER exchange shrugs. Nobody knows.‎

KASSAR: Let me make sure I have this straight. The reason we’re losing to Commodore is ‎because they own MOS and make the 6502. And yet the guy who co-developed the same chip, ‎who settled a lawsuit that legally lets him make the chip we so desperately need is off in some ‎startup doing who the hell knows what?‎

MAYER: Yeah, I guess I never really thought of it that way before. [Pause] Do you really think ‎you could convince Warner to buy Western Design?‎

KASSAR: Can’t hurt to try.‎

MENINSKY, who has been mostly silent throughout this interchange, taps a Camel cigarette ‎against the table and then lights up. After a long drag, she jumps in to the conversation.‎

MENINSKY: I still think you’re missing out on the other half of the picture here. What’s ‎offsetting your 5200 sales? Sales of the VCS, hardware and software. We sold 200,000 of them ‎in the third quarter alone, and five million copies of “E.T.” That’s nearly a half-billion dollars of ‎revenue.‎

MAYER: The VCS is obsolete, Carla; it’s six-year-old technology.‎

MENINSKY: But that’s the point! The VCS is cheap to make; it uses the scaled-down 6507 ‎that nobody wants and those 4K RAM chips that are basically free. We could probably put it in ‎a cheap plastic case, drop the wood-grain and the shielding, and make it for fifteen or twenty ‎bucks, tops. There’s still an untapped market, a downscale market for people who can’t or won’t ‎pay two or three hundred dollars for a video game system or a computer, but they might save up ‎seventy or eighty dollars for an extravagant Christmas present.‎

KASSAR: Regan, can Commodore sell the 64 for $100?‎

CHENG: No… not even as a loss-leader. ‎

KASSAR: Can we sell the 5200 for $100?‎

CHENG: No.‎

MAYER: Well, part of that are all the add-ons that we thought would make the 5200 look ‎cutting-edge, you know, the redesigned joysticks, the new video. Plus, we left a lot of legacy ‎‎800 stuff inside so that we could sell an expansion pack, turn the 5200 into a full-fledged ‎computer.‎

KASSAR: Well, those plans are out the window now. Who’s going to buy a $250 video game ‎system and then add a $200 upgrade when they could just buy the damn 64 to start with?‎

MAYER: Right, right. But like Carla was saying, we could take the 2600 and strip it down to ‎its essentials; we could do the same thing with the 5200 and maybe get production costs down to ‎the fifty dollar range. Particularly if we got a cheap source of 6502s.‎

CHENG: Could you put those two systems together, like Coleco has? Give us a 5200 that also ‎runs 2600 games?‎

MAYER: Maybe, but that’s going to take six months to a year to work out the kinks. The ‎scaled-down versions, I could get engineering to knock out a cheap 2600 in a few weeks, though. ‎But we’ll still miss the Christmas season, obviously.‎

KASSAR: Okay, so here’s where we’re going. On the one hand, we have whatever’s going to ‎replace the 2600 and 5200, a cheapo video-game unit based on the 6502, able to run all our old ‎Atari games, and we need to be able to sell that for $100 or less. In the short term, we’ll crank ‎out a revised 2600 and market the hell out of it. In the long term, we’ll replace the 5200 with ‎Regan’s idea.‎

CHENG: We could call it the “7800” – you know, a 5200 plus a 2600….‎

KASSAR: Whatever. Then, we have the computer side, where we’re on the other side of the ‎coin. Nothing we make is going to be as cheap as that crappy 64 crammed into its cheapo plastic ‎case with its cheapo plastic keyboard.‎

MAYER: So… let’s go upscale. Why compete with our own sub-$200 line of video game ‎systems? Let’s take the 1200XL, and market it as a professional computer. Compete with Apple ‎and IBM.

MENINSKY [excitedly]: Yeah, it’s the other side of my mom example. Moms want the ‎practical game machine for their kids. But what do dads want? They’re pushing 40, all of a ‎sudden you don’t want a station wagon any more, you don’t want a Ford. You want something ‎sexy. [She pouts, mock-seductively, and the all-male table starts laughing.] You want a Mustang, a Porsche, a Ferrari. Something that says 'I have an enormous penis,' but, you know, with a sense of fun.

‎[The rest of the table breaks out into uproarious laughter.]‎

MENINSKY [continuing]: So, it’s our ‘mid-life crisis computer.’ When you’re ready to be a ‎real man, you’re ready to upgrade from that 64 to an Atari. We emphasize all the business stuff, ‎but then, they know, we’re also cranking out manly video games. You work hard, you play hard.‎

KASSAR [laughing]: I love it.‎

CHENG: I love it, too. But Steve, Carla, we just can’t do that with the 1200XL. I helped ‎design and build the thing. I love it. But it’s already being compared unfavorably to the 64, at ‎twice the price.‎

KASSAR: So why can Apple and IBM sell their stuff at Cadillac prices?‎

CHENG: Well, part of it is aesthetics. The IBM has a separate numeric keypad. Don’t laugh! ‎And the quote key is next to the semicolon instead of shift-2. I know, it’s kind of silly, but that ‎sort of thing screams 'Cadillac' to enthusiasts. I guess they think they’re going to use their home ‎computer for, I don’t know, data entry or something.[14] Um… on the Atari, you have to turn ‎on all of your peripherals separately, just like on the Commodore. On the Apple and IBM, the ‎disk drives, the printers, they turn on and off from the computer. It’s just a vibe.‎

MAYER: You know, a lot of those 'Cadillac' changes are pretty cheap. We could wire in a ‎keypad on the 1200 for a couple of bucks. And we’ve got already designed a version of the 1200 motherboard that allows the computer to control the peripherals; we just cut it because it didn't fit the 'closed box' concept. So yeah, that’s all doable.‎

KASSAR: Okay, so you rework the 1200XL, add in a keypad and some other stuff, put those ‎controllers on the motherboard and we bang out the 'Cadillac'?‎

MAYER: No. No, it just isn’t that simple. Part of the 'Cadillac' problem is that people see Atari ‎as the home game computer, Apple as the educational computer, and IBM as the business ‎computer, even though in the end, what each of them do is pretty similar. Part of that is that ‎Apple and IBM have expansion slots; you can stick in all sorts of daughterboards to expand the ‎memory, upgrade the graphics, add a coprocessor, run CP/M, display 80 columns, that sort of ‎thing. They expand; they grow. We deliberately went the other way with the 1200XL to make ‎it a home computer, like an appliance. That’s exactly what Commodore did, too. So it’s sort of ‎natural to lump our 1200XL in with the 64 instead of with Apple and IBM.[15]‎

KASSAR: So what do we do?‎

MAYER: We take the 1200XL and go the other direction. All of that slot stuff is something we ‎planned to do in the future anyway, with an expansion box. We’ve already got one built; it’s ‎code-named the 1090.‎ And we’ve also got three expansion cards ready to plug in, a CP/M card that adds a Z-80, a video card to ‎display 80 columns, and a 64K memory upgrade.‎

KASSAR: Can we package the 1200XL with this 1090 box, and sell them together until you ‎can redesign the system?‎

MAYER: No, that won’t work, either. When I closed off the parallel bus interface on the ‎‎1200XL, I had Regan stick it behind a single piece of molded plastic. The interface to connect ‎to the 1090 is still there on the motherboard, but we can’t get to it. [16]‎

CHENG: We could redesign the 1200XL case, open up the PBI….‎

KASSAR: No, no, no. I’m not going to retool our production lines for a redesigned case for a ‎machine we’re going to cancel within the year anyway. Steve, how long would it take you build ‎the 1090 and all of our 'Cadillac' features into a redesigned 1200XL from the ground up?‎

MAYER: Six months? It’s actually not that hard; all of the guts are there, it’s just a matter of ‎making it work together and then getting it ready for production.‎

KASSAR: No way you could get it done in a month?‎

MAYER: No, but I could probably put together a non-working mock-up in a month or so. ‎

‎-----‎

January 6, 1983‎
The Winter Consumer Electronics Show (CES)
Las Vegas, Nevada

Atari announces that it will not ship the previously-announced 1200XL, and unveils a (non-‎working) prototype of its 800XLP Professional Series computer, code-named 'Cadillac.' ‎Thousands of pre-production 1200XLs already in distribution become semi-valuable collectors’ ‎items.‎

Atari began distributing the 800XLP in the summer of 1983, aided by positive press from the Winter CES and backed by a nationwide TV and magazine ad campaign. One particular ad, which appeared in various magazines targeted at men (including Sports Illustrated, Car and Driver, Popular Mechanics, Discover, and, notably, Playboy) throughout 1983 is reproduced below:



[Not sure why the image sometimes seems to load and sometimes not -- click here to view my custom Atari ad.

Atari’s “Work Hard, Play Hard” slogan remains one of the most recognizable catch-phrases of ‎the 1980s, and Atari would eventually sell more than two million 800XLPs.

Meanwhile, Commodore announces that it will offer a $100 rebate for new purchases of the 64 when ‎consumers “trade in” their old computer or video game system, dropping the effective price of ‎the C-64 to $299. (Commodore’s rebate program will lead New York-based retailer Crazy Eddie ‎to sell C-64s along with a Timex Sinclair 1000 for an additional $19.95 so that first-time buyers ‎can ship the Timex to Commodore to take advantage of the rebate.) By the end of 1983, ‎Commodore will drop the price of the C-64 to under $200, and it will become the best-selling computer ‎of all time, selling more than fifteen million units,[17] and driving Texas Instruments, Timex-Sinclair, Coleco, Tandy-Radio Shack, and the IBM PCjr from the personal computer market in what is now called the "Home Computer Market Crash of 1984."[18]‎

‎-----‎

So there you have it: a bit more background on how Atari comes to shelve the 5200 and 1200XL and stay afloat during Jack Tramiel's crazy price wars of the 1980s, plus some fun hints for the future. Thoughts?

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‎[1] Just as IOTL. Garvey would ultimately sign with the Padres for 5 years/$6.6 million in ‎February of 1983, a move that Sports Illustrated would call a “masterstroke” for San Diego. ‎Garvey – who still holds the National League record for consecutive games played with 1,207 ‎and was nicknamed the “Iron Man” – would dislocate his thumb during a collision at home plate ‎during the first inning on July 29, 1983 and would miss 62 games for the first time in his career. ‎After returning in 1984, Garvey would be elected to two more All-Star teams during his tenure in ‎San Diego and would win the NLCS MVP award in 1984.‎

‎[2] IOTL, “Gloria” peaked at #2, just behind “Mickey.” But take a look a little further down the ‎top ten and you’ll see (ahem) “Dirty Laundry” in the midst of its nineteen-week run on the ‎Billboard Top 100, peaking at #3. Those listeners have to go somewhere, and I think Laura ‎Branigan is probably a closer step than, say, Lionel Richie, Hall & Oates, and Marvin Gaye. ‎‎“Mickey” would also hit #1 IOTL, although not for a few weeks.‎

‎[3] As per OTL, except that IOTL, all of Coin-Op reported to Rick Moncrief, Director of Atari’s ‎‎“Applied Research” division and not to Atari directly. The reorganization here is partly due to ‎diminished Warner meddling in Atari management (because Atari is far more profitable ITTL), ‎partly due to butterflies, and partly due to the fact that Margolin has published his entire e-mail history during his tenure at Atari from 1982 to 1992, which is just ‎an incredible resource (and a really fun read).‎

‎[4] Regan Cheng designed the Atari 1200XL and was responsible for the sleek “wedge” look. ‎He came up with a ‎whole bunch of ‎really neat designs for Atari – most of which were shelved during 1983 (as Atari was losing ‎money hand over fist) and lost for good during the implosion of 1984 (when Atari was sold to ‎Jack Tramiel). Here, they’re not. Warner has always been interested in marketing Atari; IOTL, ‎that interest is coupled with the thought that they’re actually getting a return on their investment.‎

I've (unrealistically) combined Cheng's character with Atari's director of Marketing, mainly for storytelling reasons.

‎[5] After Howard Scott Warshaw’s departure and Meninsky’s success with the 2600 version of ‎‎“E.T.,” she’s promoted to head of the Atari Software division.‎

‎[6] IOTL, Mayer – who designed every pre-Tramiel Atari 8-bit computer – was made CEO of ‎‎“WCI Labs,” a Warner subsidiary separate from the Atari chain of command (and also separate ‎from Atari’s videogame division!) and tasked with creating Atari’s next generation of computers. ‎Although Tramiel bought Atari, he did not buy WCI Labs, which led to the very weird situation ‎in 1984 where Warner owned the research for Atari’s prototype 16-bit computers (codenamed ‎SIERRA and GAZA), but not Atari Computers. As you might imagine, this means that pretty ‎much everything Mayer worked on was ultimately lost.‎

‎[7] I picked this date because IOTL, Kassar sold $250,000 worth of Warner stock just twenty ‎minutes before Warner reported lower-than-projected profits of 10% for the year. Warner stock ‎tanked at the announcement, and Kassar ultimately was investigated by the SEC for insider ‎training, leading to his resignation. The cloud of (justifiable) suspicion that hung over Kassar for ‎all of 1983 crippled Atari’s reputation on Wall Street and contributed to the cascade of disaster ‎IOTL. ‎

Here, the profit-conscious Kassar is actually an asset. Yes, his autocratic management style ‎pissed off a lot of Atari engineers and programmers pissed off a lot of people back in 1979 (and ‎led to the founding of Activision) – but everyone who’s left is used to it by now. As a guy who ‎wants to line his own pockets, Kassar isn’t afraid to make bold choices or to go toe-to-toe with ‎Steve Ross and demand investments from the parent company that he believe will pay off down ‎the line.‎

‎[8] Atari’s 2600, as you may recall, was initially known as the “Video Computer System” (VCS) ‎before being retconned as the 2600 in 1982 in order to promote the 5200. Long-standing 2600 ‎programmers like Meninsky will still default to the classic nomenclature.‎

‎[9] All as IOTL. Ultimately, Atari’s lawsuit was dismissed because any engineer could recreate ‎the entirety of the 2600 using off-the-shelf parts. (That’s essentially what Coleco’s Expansion ‎Module 1 did – put an entire 2600 inside the ColecoVision.)‎

‎[10] As IOTL.‎

‎[11] True. If you owned (or knew anyone who owned) a C-64, you’ll remember the now-iconic ‎blue startup screen with “38911 BASIC BYTES FREE.”‎

‎[12] National Semiconductor would rename the 16032 as the 32016, but production and ‎performance issues rendered it a second-division competitor to the MC68000, a similar chip that ‎also had a 32-bit instruction set and a 16-bit data bus. Atari had designs with both chips that ‎were lost during the sale to Tramiel in 1984.‎

‎[13] All as per OTL. Chuck Peddle and Bill Mensch designed the Motorola 6800, left to start ‎MOS Technologies, co-patented the 6502, and were purchased by Commodore. Mensch left ‎Commodore for WDC in 1978 and is still the CEO of WDC today.‎

‎[14] Seriously!‎

‎[15] IOTL, Compute! Magazine made precisely this point in print.‎

‎[16] Just as OTL.‎

‎[17] IOTL, the C-64 sells 17 million units. Here, Atari’s “Work Hard, Play Hard” strategy cuts ‎into that margin just a bit with a marketing plan that turns out to be pitch-perfect for creating a niche in the ‎rebounding economy that we associate with the go-go Reagan ‘80s.‎

[18] TTL's version of the Video Game Crash of 1983.