Different winner for 17th century China

What could be plausible butterflies/PoD-s there?

What forces did Nurhachi command in 1618? Or what did Dorgon have in 1644? How did either force compare against the forces of Hideyoshi Toyotomi in 1592?

What did Nurhachi and Dorgon do right, or Hideyoshi do wrong?

Could you have a result where:
- Hideyoshi Toyotomi wins, conquers all China in 1590-s?
- Ming crush Nurhachi after 1618?
- Ming crush Abakhai after 1626?
- Wu Sangui rescues Beijing in time in April 1644, Ming dynasty goes on?
- Wu Sangui reaches accommodation with Shun dynasty, Shun dynasty rules all China?
- Koxinga liberates mainland, drives Manchu out?
- Three Feudatories win, Wu Sangui becomes emperor?
- An outside force, such as Tokugawa Japan or Shosetsu Japan, interferes in China between 1644 and 1670-s, and conquers all China?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Interesting period I was thinking about again -

I don't have any direct answers for you.

The first thing that the Japanese did wrong was fail to beat Korea - actually could Korea have become a bigger player in Manchuria or North China?

I did not know that the Mings had any positive prospects - a revived Ming would be interesting.

Could there have been a way for the the Japanese and Manchu to crash into each other with such effect as to weaken each other, or weaken each other and the Ming, such as to allow Spanish or Portuguese footholds on the South China coast, (and maybe French, British and Dutch later.....China ends up as another India) or the Russians to make some durable gains in the early 1700s?
 
I think that a Japanese-ruled China would be particularly cool. They would need to build and then maintain a sizable fleet to remain in contact with and control of the Home Islands. Plus to conquer China they would need to equip and maintain a large gunpowder army. Muskets, cannon, all that stuff is going to need to be built.

That kind of an investment and then conquest is going to have effects on the Sino-Japanese Empire that emerges. The conquering army will be quite modern, and the requirements of the Empire will probably leave it in a position where it needs to keep modernizing.
 
That kind of an investment and then conquest is going to have effects on the Sino-Japanese Empire that emerges. The conquering army will be quite modern, and the requirements of the Empire will probably leave it in a position where it needs to keep modernizing.

Hrmm. I don't think this is plausible.

Though a Southern Ming might be doable, although it's fairly tricky.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Faeelin - just the Japanese China is implausible, or the

whole list?

By "southern Ming" you mean a durably split north and south China, with interesting international effects?
 
I think that a Japanese-ruled China would be particularly cool. They would need to build and then maintain a sizable fleet to remain in contact with and control of the Home Islands. Plus to conquer China they would need to equip and maintain a large gunpowder army. Muskets, cannon, all that stuff is going to need to be built.

That kind of an investment and then conquest is going to have effects on the Sino-Japanese Empire that emerges.
How did the Manchu equip and maintain a large gunpowder army?
 
What would Toyotomi capital be?

In China... Ming Yongle emperor picked Beijing because he had homebase there before usurpation, and because it was close to the frontline against their main enemies the Mongols. Manchu kept it, because it was close to their Manchu homeland, but inside China.

For an overseas conqueror, Beijing is located in remote, cold, dry and poor part of China. It is more accessible than Xian by water, but the waterways through Tianjin to sea and through Grand Canal to south are still shallow and artificial. Reaching Beijing by land means long detour through dubiously loyal or safe Korea and Manchuria; reaching Beijing by sea means rounding Korean peninsula and detouring through Yellow Sea which freezes in winter.

Now look at lower Yangtze. It is tidal, wide and deep, available to big sailing ships well past Nanjing. Nanjing itself is the original Ming capital with second capital functions.

There are alternative sites downstream, but Yangzhou has never been capital. Suzhou is not on Yangtze mainstream, and thus harder to access outside Yangtze delta. Shanghai is a trading settlement, but even more remote from Chinese communications than Suzhou.

It seems to me that picking Nanjing as capital would be obvious move for an overseas conqueror. Any opinions?
 
Really interesting topic, it would be interesting to see Japan's true potential realized in the 17th century and the effects it has on the world. Can conquering China (or part of it), lead to less isolation with respect to Europe? I guess Japan will butting heads with Russia, so it might need a European ally to keep the Russians in Check. And the red-seal ships will still keep sailing, I guess.
 
How did the Manchu equip and maintain a large gunpowder army?
They didn't. But they were horse archers, and China was in disarray when they invaded it. There was no way for the Japanese to have strong cavalry, and even if they somehow managed to have it, they faced united and relatively strong, while slowly decaying, China in the 1590-ies.
 
Top