Different Tsushima?

Suppose the Russian auxiliary/hospital ship Oryol does not mistake the Japanese auxiliary cruiser Shinano Maru as another Russian ship. Instead, Shinano Maru is discovered to be a Japanese ship as it actually was. The Oryol thus does not blow the cover of the Russian fleet attempting to escape to Vladivostok. What happens?
 

sharlin

Banned
In the long run very little, in the short run, lots of Russians don't die. Even if the 2nd Pacific Squadron managed to get to Vladivostok there's little they could do. They would either be blockaded in the port or just act as a fleet in being.
They would need weeks if not months of refit and repair, the fleet commander would need to be replaced, the poor chap had more than a few nervous breakdowns on the voyage (Micro-manager + incompetent crews = FFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUU........) as well as discipline boards to deal with the various mutinies etc.

Also apart from the four Borodino's the Russian ships were totally inferior to their Japanese counterparts and the Borodino class is usually pointed at when someone wants a bad example of a pre-dreadnought.
By Tshshima the Russians had basically lost the war, Port Arthur had been overrun and the fleet there destroyed or interned whilst in Manchuria the Russian armies had been routed but more were on the way. The Russian fleet was basically a poorly trained mob that never really stood a chance and if they did reach Vladivostok they'd need so long to refit that the war would end before they were ready.
 
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Suppose the Russian auxiliary/hospital ship Oryol does not mistake the Japanese auxiliary cruiser Shinano Maru as another Russian ship. Instead, Shinano Maru is discovered to be a Japanese ship as it actually was. The Oryol thus does not blow the cover of the Russian fleet attempting to escape to Vladivostok. What happens?

If the Russian fleet survives, I wonder about long term repercussions. The war will be still lost, but with larger (useless) navy Russia perhaps does not develop the rather impressive coastal defense network it used for good effect during the First World War.

How would this change balance of power in Europe? Even if experts could assume Russian navy is useless, it is still viewed as a larger potential force?

How about the First World War, assuming it happens as in OTL? German Navy would have an opportunity to kill Russian Navy and perhaps support the Army operations much more aggressively than OTL.
 

sharlin

Banned
Hmm interesting possibilities, but the war in the Baltic was not one of wide ranging fleet movements, but of mine laying and for the most part cruiser/destroyer actions and even they were few and far between.

Even with their surface fleet surviving the Russians would not be silly enough to try and challenge the Germans in their own back yard. The Russians played a very careful game with the resources they had and they'd have to do that again as it was widely accepted that you didn't send pre-dreadnoughts against Dreadnoughts.

In WW1 with a surviving fleet the Russians would be more of a hinderance to the Germans, even if they didn't send their ships out often (and they didn't) they would act as a fine fleet in being that the germans would have to keep an eye on to contain, and because of its greater size (although you could see it shrink post Russo-Japanese war as some of the ships were horrifically obsolete) the Germans would have to divert more resources to tying down the Russian fleet which might be detrimental.
 
Hmm interesting possibilities, but the war in the Baltic was not one of wide ranging fleet movements, but of mine laying and for the most part cruiser/destroyer actions and even they were few and far between.

Russia did not really start improving it's coastal defences and mine warfare units until the catastrophic loss of Baltic Fleet in Tsushima. Without this the Russian capabilities, which were formidable in OTL, would not simply be there but the defence would be based upon fleet units like before Tsushima. Thus the German capability to cripple Russian defences would be there.
 

sharlin

Banned
I doubt it. The Russians would know they would be massively outmatched just looking at the disparity between the fleets and they would take steps to improve their defences. They ain't going to look at the masses of battleships and Dreadnoughts and go 'Yeah we can take that in a stand up fight!'
 
I doubt it. The Russians would know they would be massively outmatched just looking at the disparity between the fleets and they would take steps to improve their defences. They ain't going to look at the masses of battleships and Dreadnoughts and go 'Yeah we can take that in a stand up fight!'

The problem is that without comprehensive coastal defence and mine warfare systems they deployed OTL they won't have the option of just retiring behind defenses into fortified ports. Baltic cities would be open to bombardment and coasts to raiding if the German navy was not challenged at sea.
 

sharlin

Banned
You're missing the point. The Russians would KNOW they would be outnumbered and would not want to risk their fleet in a full on balls out surface action so would evolve things like mine warfare and coastal defences and this would be done before war broke out.
 
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