Different Pearl Harbor

What if before the attack on Pearl Harbor the US Navy would have deployed the Battlefleet and left behind the Carriers?

Would the presence of the Carriers change the outcome of the battle?

If the Carriers were destroyed, how would that effect the outcome of the War?

Would Naval Aviation be setback due to the attack?

Personally I imagine that the Carriers would have taken more Japanese Air Planes down during the battle, but the Carriers would have been sunk due to the element of surprise and such.

As to the effects, I really don't know...

What do y'all think?
 

Pangur

Donor
What if before the attack on Pearl Harbor the US Navy would have deployed the Battlefleet and left behind the Carriers?

Would the presence of the Carriers change the outcome of the battle?

If the Carriers were destroyed, how would that effect the outcome of the War?

Would Naval Aviation be setback due to the attack?

Personally I imagine that the Carriers would have taken more Japanese Air Planes down during the battle, but the Carriers would have been sunk due to the element of surprise and such.

As to the effects, I really don't know...

What do y'all think?
Perhaps a far bigger victory for the Japa. ese if they can sink the battleships were they can be salvaged and in your scenario the carriers are toast. How can they get their aircraft aloft if they are docked?
 
If on 12/7/1941, the US Battle Fleet (Arizona, California, Maryland, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia) is at sea, and the PacFleet carriers (Enterprise, Lexington) are anchored in Pearl Harbor (Pennsylvania is in drydock there)...

The early morning Japanese snooper will reoort what is in PH to Nagumo. He will order the PH strike as OTL, except that he may hold back some of the bombers, because there are so few targets. His object will be to destroy the carriers and land-based aircraft, thus eliminating US air power. Meanwhile he will deploy additional recon planes to locate the Battle Fleet, to be attacked later.

Where is the Battle Fleet? SW of Oahu, the usual area for exercises, or Lahaina Roads (between the islands of Maui, Lānaʻi, Molokaʻi, and Kahoʻ'olawe; the alternate anchorage for Pac Fleet)? In either case, the Battle Fleet will almost certainly be spotted, and Nagumo will send his second wave at it.

That's going to hurt. OT1H, the ships will be moving targets, free to maneuver evasively, with all AA guns manned and ready, and all damage precautions set. OTOH, they will have no air protection at all, and the fates of Bismarck, Force Z, Musashi, and Yamato indicate that even a well-armed and prepared battleship can't survive sustained air attack on her own. And any warship sunk in deep water will be lost permanently, whereas ships sunk in harbor can often be raised and repaired.

Furthermore, with no US carriers to worry about, Nagumo probably decides to hang around and make a third strike, to finish off any cripples.

Overall, much worse for the USN.

Also - Pennsylvania will be the only BB at PH, a much more attractive target than in OTL, and will get bombed worse.
 
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The japanese would be thoroughly disappointed as they wanted to knock out the battleships. They will probably misidentify the USS Utah and such as battleships and attack them but the 3-4 carriers(Enterprise, Lexington and Saratoga, maybe Langley) are definitly getting it. But, with fewer targets they might go for the fuel depot and submarine base as well, setting the US back more than OTL. But on the other hand the Japanese might get more losses themselves if the carrier CAGs are able to get in the air(or already were).

Not sure what torps do to a lexington-class or Yorktown-class carrier, as it has less armor than a battleship. Could they be salvaged? If they could then the US is forced to use its battleship fleet against the Japanese untill Atlantic ships like the Yorktown, Ranger and Wasp arrive(however they might not send all carriers west). Even more priority will be put on building new carriers.

Dependingo n what kind of fights the Japanese will be picking and what kind of fights the Us is willing to do how the war will proceed. There might be a battleship fight. We all want a battleship fight.
 

CalBear

Moderator
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Short term is damaging, but in anything beyond January 1942 the difference is negligible (excepting the casualties if the Battle Line is caught at sea, this however is strikingly unlikely since the expected Japanese axis of attack, if one were to occur, was from the direction of the Marshall Islands). Saratoga is still on the West Coast, having jut come out of Bremerton after refit. Ranger is just outside Norfolk returning from a patrol of the West Indies. Yorktown is docked IN Norfolk. Wasp is at anchor in Grassy Bay, Bermuda. Hornet is working up between Bermuda and the East Coast.

There is also the fact that Nagumo's orders were:

If, after arriving in Hawaiian waters, it was found that the American Fleet was at sea and not in Pearl Harbor, the Japanese planned to scout a 30-miles radius around Oahu and attack if contact was made; otherwise they were to withdraw.
source: USSBS - Pacific

Two decks does not constitute the American Fleet (the Japanese expected to find at least four, possibly five carriers and four battleships in port, with the first target to be four of the carriers and the four BB) source: IJN Plans Monograph No. 97 as compiled by U.S. Army, Far East post war

What likely happens in this scenario is still potentially disastrous. The Japanese will still make the balance of their attacks (the move against Malaya actually began shortly prior to the launching of the Pearl Harbor Raid), including against Wake, Guam and the Philippines. Wake is likely fail, the Japanese didn't assign anything close to the force necessary to deal with the entire Pacific Fleet, even if they manage to take the Island they would be well advise to spike the guns and beat feet before a thoroughly irritated Kimmel and Halsey arrive to repossess the place. Guam is utterly indefensible, so its gone. The danger is the PI. Although the U.S. War Plan was to leave the Philippines to their fate, the political pressure, especially driven by MacArthur's many admirers in Congress, to relieve the forces there would be enormous. The Japanese had planned for that exact scenario for decades, so yielding to the pressure would be potentially far more damaging than the actual damage of OTL's Raid.

 
All things considered you could shift the Yorktown and Wasp to the Pacific right away and have the Hornet follow when it was ready. All things considered the US navy might not go on all sorts of raids and adopt a more defensive policy at least for a while. But if the navy starts taking losses in what carriers they do have then you could delay the end of the war. But in the long run the Americans will win but with more casualties than in the OTL.
 
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