Different Paraguayan War?

I was just recently reading about the Paraguayan War, also known as the War of the Triple Alliance, which took place from 1864-1870. Specifically, I was researching the Battle of Riachuelo. In the battle, the river-based naval forces of Brazil were able to defeat the opposing riverine forces of the Paraguayan Navy; this battle allowed for Brazil (and its allies, Argentina and Uruguay) to secure the Rio de la Plata basin and eventually chase the Paraguayans out of Argentina. I was very interested when I found that this loss was largely due to the decision of the Paraguayan commander, Pedro Meza, to defy his orders-to capture the docked Brazilian ships down the river-and instead try to perform a run and gun on the Brazilian river fleet.

So let's say that Meza follows his orders, and the Brazilians' riverine naval forces are severely weakened. The Paraguayans are able to secure a large amount of the Rio de la Plata basin, and consolidate their control, making any attempted Brazilian/Argentinian assaults likely impossible. Would that be possible, or is Paraguay destined to lose it later? If the former, then how would this affect the future of South America? Would Paraguay possibly get access to the Atlantic? If the latter, how long could Paraguay hold out? How much territory would it be able to keep?
 
Honestly, take a look at the demographics. There is no way in hell Paraguay is going to beat Brazil AND Argentina over the long term. They might have won this battle, maybe even consequently won the war, but long term? No freaking way. One scrap of determination from either of these nations and they would simply be able to crush them with numbers and industry.

And that's not even to mention the international support that would be lent to Brazil and Argentina, who were important trading partners to Europe, while Paraguay is a tiny state in the middle of the jungle.
 
It would postpone the end of the war, but the demographics and the economy were heavily weighted against Paraguay. Just maybe, Solano Lopez might be able to get a white peace (retreat from Argentina and Brazil, don't intervene again in Uruguayan politics, Paraguay not invaded) if the Brazilians consider the cost to replace the ships is too high and they fear Argentina might end up carving too many parts of Paraguay when the war is eventually won. It would also cement an Argentine-Brazilian alliance, as Argentina doesn't have the navy to counter Paraguay's augmented fleet and Brazil will want to keep Paraguay in check.
That's the best case scenario I can see for Paraguay unless they don't start the war. They'll be isolated and surrounded by unfriendly neighbours, but they won't be invaded and their male population devastated.
 
The Paraguayan's don't need to win in the long term; even winning this battle (and thus the war) will be a massive positive change over OTL's horrific demographic collapse.

Hell, why is everyone so quick to assume that the Paraguayan's are ultimately doomed ITTL? iirc prior to the war the Paraguayans were known as the 'Prussians of South America.'
 
The Paraguayan's don't need to win in the long term; even winning this battle (and thus the war) will be a massive positive change over OTL's horrific demographic collapse.

Hell, why is everyone so quick to assume that the Paraguayan's are ultimately doomed ITTL? iirc prior to the war the Paraguayans were known as the 'Prussians of South America.'
People have a history of projecting the present onto the past.
 
One idea I had for a Paraguayan victory was a victory for them at the Battle of Tuyuti. The reason being that the Allied forces there represented a serious chunk of their military forces, and more importantly present at the battle was not only one of the most important military commanders of Brazil, but the presidents of both Argentina and Uruguay. Their capture could put both those countries out of the war for good, especially Uruguay because they wouldn't be able to raise another army if the force at Tuyuti is lost. People don't realize that the Allies had a real problem maintaining the war effort. At the start of the war Paraguay's military outnumbered that of all the allies combined. Brazil had to start drafting slaves and because Argentina was in the middle of a civil war their soldiers often had to be sent to the front in chains. Entire villages would scatter when the draft notice went out. Paraguay's ultimate defeat probably lies as much with the successive chain of bad decisions their president came up with as their small size.
 
iirc prior to the war the Paraguayans were known as the 'Prussians of South America.'

Who ever called them like that?:confused:

Paraguay could have won a war against Argentina, or against Brazil, but they wouldn't be able to win a war against both. The extremely bad diplomatical timing of Lopez and his incompetence as a military leader is what doomed Paraguay in first. Have him replaced by his brother or by José Berges (his minister of Foreign Relations) and Paraguay would have much more chances of success.
 
And that's not even to mention the international support that would be lent to Brazil and Argentina, who were important trading partners to Europe, while Paraguay is a tiny state in the middle of the jungle.
While it is true that the Triple Alliance was supported by Britain, it was not because they wished to see Brazil win (especially since they had severed relations in 1863), but due to Paraguay's industrial good stealing the traditional British markets in South America. Paraguay was the most developed state of the continent with high literacy rates, modern and efficient telegraphic lines and the best trained and biggest army.

One idea I had for a Paraguayan victory was a victory for them at the Battle of Tuyuti. The reason being that the Allied forces there represented a serious chunk of their military forces, and more importantly present at the battle was not only one of the most important military commanders of Brazil, but the presidents of both Argentina and Uruguay. Their capture could put both those countries out of the war for good, especially Uruguay because they wouldn't be able to raise another army if the force at Tuyuti is lost.
The captivity of Osório would force the Emperor to appoint the Marquis of Caxias to be the general commander of the Brazilian Army, which, coupled with the capture of Mitre, who opposed Caxias, and no Uruguayans to cause havoc among the Allied ranks, will make the war end sooner. An earlier command of Caxias could also put an earlier end to the Conciliation Cabinets and the rise of the Viscount of Rio Branco would be faster.

Brazil had to start drafting slaves
That is not necessarily true. There were plenty of white men to conscript, especially among the upper classes in the countryside. When they were called to arms, their fathers sent slaves in their place to serve in the Army.
 
While it is true that the Triple Alliance was supported by Britain, it was not because they wished to see Brazil win (especially since they had severed relations in 1863), but due to Paraguay's industrial good stealing the traditional British markets in South America. Paraguay was the most developed state of the continent with high literacy rates, modern and efficient telegraphic lines and the best trained and biggest army.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Now, seriously, there is a lot of myth in Paraguay' situation before the war and the so called involvement of the UK it's more fitting to pleasant conspiracy theories. Most of the reliable historical data was destroyed when Asuncion was sacked in the war. I've yet to know of any reliable historical source about British encouragement to destroy Paraguay, nor the mighty Paraguayan industry.
 
If Brazil is defeated in Riachuelo, the Empire will just send a larger fleet to crush the Paraguayan Navy. It's hopeless.

But Paraguay's original plan was to capture and use the Brazilian ships. It would have greatly increased the size of their riverine navy. Brazil could likely eventually outpace Paraguay in ship production, but I think Paraguay would be able to keep its edge in the rivers for a while before this happened. And if they control the rivers, they will likely be able to hold the surrounding territory.
 
Hell, why is everyone so quick to assume that the Paraguayan's are ultimately doomed ITTL? iirc prior to the war the Paraguayans were known as the 'Prussians of South America.'

Interesting comparison. Prussia also started a war with a bunch of nations that overpowered it economically and militarily; and consequently no longer exists.
 
But Paraguay's original plan was to capture and use the Brazilian ships. It would have greatly increased the size of their riverine navy. Brazil could likely eventually outpace Paraguay in ship production, but I think Paraguay would be able to keep its edge in the rivers for a while before this happened. And if they control the rivers, they will likely be able to hold the surrounding territory.
During the war, Brazil bought twenty ironclads and became the fifth most powerful navy of the world. In Riachuelo, all of the allied force was composed by wooden ships. Paraguay simply does not stand a chance in the naval front
 
Pics or it didn't happen.
Now, seriously, there is a lot of myth in Paraguay' situation before the war and the so called involvement of the UK it's more fitting to pleasant conspiracy theories. Most of the reliable historical data was destroyed when Asuncion was sacked in the war. I've yet to know of any reliable historical source about British encouragement to destroy Paraguay, nor the mighty Paraguayan industry.

Hear, hear!

Britain wasn't interested in a war in the Plata, especially against Paraguay. I really would like that any of the historians who blame the UK for the defeat of Paraguay could point to a single speech in Parliament or a single document of the British government at the time in which it's stated that Paraguay was a threat to British affairs in the region.

We need to remember that at the beginning of the war Britain and Brazil had no diplomatical relations, as they were broken sometime earlier due to the Christie Affair. Meanwhile, the relation between Paraguay and the UK were actually good. Much of the military equipment of the Paraguayan army was bought in Britain from Blyth & Co. From 1850 until the end of the war the Paraguayan government hired 250 European tecnicians - 200 of them were British. The chief engineer of the Paraguayan government was William Whytehead. In the army, the Chief of Surgery was William Stewart, and George Thompson the main engineer officer. Heck, even Lopez himself was married to an Irish woman who used her position as a British citizen to not be captured by the allied forces.

Also, the industrialization of Paraguay was heavily dependent on British capital goods. Before 1865 75% of the goods imported by Paraguay were British, and were bought through operations controlled by British commerciants stablished in Buenos Aires, who used to give an eight months credit for Paraguayan importers to pay for the products.
 
During the war, Brazil bought twenty ironclads and became the fifth most powerful navy of the world. In Riachuelo, all of the allied force was composed by wooden ships. Paraguay simply does not stand a chance in the naval front

I believe those were sea-going ironclads, however. The naval warfare in the Paraguayan war was based in the Rio de la Plata basin; none of the conflict took place in the ocean (Paraguay is landlocked, after all). So Brazil's edge would likely be negated.
 
I believe those were sea-going ironclads, however. The naval warfare in the Paraguayan war was based in the Rio de la Plata basin; none of the conflict took place in the ocean (Paraguay is landlocked, after all). So Brazil's edge would likely be negated.

Weeeelll, there's this big country up North wrapping up a war with lots of riverine action, including ironclad rivergoing vessels...Brazil sounds like a potential market to me...

Stepping off the sterotypical Yankee image, the US did do quite a bit of development of rivergoing ironclads during the Civil War, and presumably if Brazil had wanted she could have got advantage of that by, say, buying US surplus or contracting with US shipbuilders. Maybe there were some regulations or diplomatic issues that would have prevented that from working, but they aren't obvious from here.
 
I believe those were sea-going ironclads, however. The naval warfare in the Paraguayan war was based in the Rio de la Plata basin; none of the conflict took place in the ocean (Paraguay is landlocked, after all). So Brazil's edge would likely be negated.

Most of them were used in the Paraná River. Ten ironclads surpassed the fortress of Curupaiti in August 1867 and were joined by six "monitors" in February 1868. The monitors were built in Brazil.
 
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