I was just recently reading about the Paraguayan War, also known as the War of the Triple Alliance, which took place from 1864-1870. Specifically, I was researching the Battle of Riachuelo. In the battle, the river-based naval forces of Brazil were able to defeat the opposing riverine forces of the Paraguayan Navy; this battle allowed for Brazil (and its allies, Argentina and Uruguay) to secure the Rio de la Plata basin and eventually chase the Paraguayans out of Argentina. I was very interested when I found that this loss was largely due to the decision of the Paraguayan commander, Pedro Meza, to defy his orders-to capture the docked Brazilian ships down the river-and instead try to perform a run and gun on the Brazilian river fleet.
So let's say that Meza follows his orders, and the Brazilians' riverine naval forces are severely weakened. The Paraguayans are able to secure a large amount of the Rio de la Plata basin, and consolidate their control, making any attempted Brazilian/Argentinian assaults likely impossible. Would that be possible, or is Paraguay destined to lose it later? If the former, then how would this affect the future of South America? Would Paraguay possibly get access to the Atlantic? If the latter, how long could Paraguay hold out? How much territory would it be able to keep?
So let's say that Meza follows his orders, and the Brazilians' riverine naval forces are severely weakened. The Paraguayans are able to secure a large amount of the Rio de la Plata basin, and consolidate their control, making any attempted Brazilian/Argentinian assaults likely impossible. Would that be possible, or is Paraguay destined to lose it later? If the former, then how would this affect the future of South America? Would Paraguay possibly get access to the Atlantic? If the latter, how long could Paraguay hold out? How much territory would it be able to keep?