Different Outcome for the Slaughterhouse Cases

Background:

The ruling in Slaughterhouse did two things: gut the Privileges or Immunities clause out of the 14th Amendment and postponed - but not prevented - the possibility of incorporating the Bill of Rights against the individual states.

What is particularly striking about this case is that the that plaintiffs were trying to use the 14th Amendment to undermine Reconstruction, and were represented by John Campbell, a former Justice who resigned to fight for the Confederacy and spent every waking moment after getting out of prison after the fall of Richmond to try to stop Reconstruction. However, it was in losing this case before the Supreme Court that Campbell actually delivered Reconstruction one of its greatest blows. Campbell was arguing against the Louisiana law in question because it was passed by a biracial Reconstruction legislature, and he wanted to discredit it. But, once the Privileges or Immunities clause was gutted, there was little to stop southern states from imposing what would become the Jim Crow laws, until decades of gradual clawing back these rights took place.

We'll set aside whether this was all some complex gambit on Campbell's part to lose on purpose - I don't think anyone whose grasp of logic is weak enough to think the Confederacy's cause made any sense is clever enough for that.

So, let us say the ruling goes the other way. It was a 5-4 decision, and the dissent was pretty vehement in pointing out that that the majority ruling was gutting a key part of the 14th Amendment. If we want to drill down to a personal scale, apparently, Miller, writing for the majority, absolutely loathed Campbell for resigning from the Court to fight for the Confederacy. So, perhaps just having Campbell come down with a bout of cholera is enough to get Miller on the other side. Or perhaps any Justice from the majority realizes that, despite the specifics surrounding this case, gutting P&I dooms Reconstruction, and rules differently.

I'll leave the exact nature of this ruling up for discussion, but lets say the maximum scope of the majority's ruling being that the P&I clause of the 14th Amendment incorporate all 8 applicable Amendments from the Bill of Rights. The ex-Confederates might cheer this on in the short term, since they've just won a landmark case in the Supreme Court (it was recognized to be a big deal back then) and given a Reconstruction state government a huge black eye. In the medium-long term, however, they've just undermined their ability to impose any legislative restrictions on blacks.

Unless a later Court reverses this ruling (which would be damn hard to justify, due to the nature of it and its proximity to the ratification of the 14th Amendment), the Court is going to get swamped with 14th Amendment cases, and they've just bound their hands on how they can rule on them. What does that do to Reconstruction, when the Court is constantly striking down the various restrictions the ex-Confederate states are attempting to impose?
 
So to bump this, some likely legal outcomes to consider. I’m going to assume there will be cases similar to the historical ones that resemble them closely enough to have identical facts, and just look at how the rulings might change. Thats a huge assumption, admittedly.

- Any alt-Cruikshank ruling will almost certainly go the other way. SCOTUS could still overturn the indictments, but if the Second Amendment is not already incorporated due to Slaughterhouse, it will be now.
- Any alt-Civil Rights Cases ruling will likely stay the same. 8-1 is a huge majority, and the fundamental logic is very sound by the jurisprudential thinking of the time (hell, even many modern scholars say that, even if it is offensive to us, the ruling was correct). It is possible that a narrow ruling regarding railways only just might go through, on the logic that they’re public highways. But that is the most I could see from the Court.
- Alt-Plessy is an interesting one. I don’t see any specific way it might change the ruling, even though Plessy does cite Slaughterhouse. Potentially, with a stronger interpretation of the Privileges or Immunities clause, there may be some argument about freedom to travel, but it still sounds pretty thin to me.
 
This is awesome, I'm glad to see some love for con law on this board. I'm actually really interested in this "Lochner era" period of legal scholarship, and one thing I've noticed is that the Justices tended to rationalize inconsistencies in their jurisprudence which goes back to the Slaughter-House cases. Your analysis of the consequences for the P&I Clause is spot-on, and I do think that an alt-Slaughter House is going to mean that the 14th amendment does the job it was enacted to do: restrain the states from limiting the liberties of their citizens. I think if Field's dissent becomes the majority opinion, you see much more consistent advocacy of liberty of contract during this time period. This is going to send off a lot of butterflies, and it could ironically result in a much earlier civil rights movement, because it could lead to the Court striking down (at least some) southern Jim Crow legislation restricting blacks from buying property in certain areas or from holding certain occupations.

On the flip side, there may be a lot of backlash from both segregationists and economic progressives. The northeastern urban middle class in particular may grow enraged by their elected officials' apparent inability to enact progressive legislation, and Teddy Roosevelt made the Lochner case a major issue in his 1912 presidential campaign, promising to subject federal judges to recall elections (among other things). Moreover, the Southern states will certainly put up a great fight and really rely on "states rights" arguments to win at the polls. And the court may be conscious of this, and so might lean away from striking down certain Jim Crow legislation. But in the realm of economic liberties, that's definitely going to be a lot harder to justify after an alt-Slaughter House. As for Plessy specifically, you're right that the 8-1 margin will be difficult to overcome, although Marshall may be able to peal off a few of the justices by relying on this alt-Slaughter House as precedent. Perhaps it's something like 6-3 or 5-4 instead of 8-1.

Randy Barnett's scholarship points out that despite its reputation, the Lochner era courts actually rarely struck down state legislation (though it obviously did so much more than the current Court does). I definitely think that Reconstruction would be more successful in this ATL, though how much is a matter of speculation and will greatly depend on the individuals who lead the elected branches. Perhaps the economic arguments will be extended to the political realm, and federal courts will have fewer qualms about restricting states from disenfranchising southern blacks. But it's also conceivable that the southern states will be less aggressive in trying to overturn Reconstruction, as they may be demoralized by an onslaught of federal cases striking down their attempts to limit free blacks' economic rights. And after a generation or two of more successful Reconstruction may make Southern whites significantly less entrenched in racism than their parents and grandparents. This would at least be a significant improvement from OTL, where there was arguably more bigotry with each passing generation as the economic apartheid set up by Jim Crow entrenched and even mandated state-sanctioned bigotry in nearly all aspects of life. But this is all assuming that we don't see a constitutional amendment defanging the Supreme Court or something like that.
 
Glad to see some thoughtful response on this! I actually originally posted this while doing research on Lochner for one of my grad school classes - my general conclusion was that Lochner itself is a highly over-hyped case and Holmes (I actually grew up just down the street from his summer home) was a pompous ass.

I can see Reconstruction v Jim Crow end up being fought on a much more local level - the same general jurisprudential philosophy that guts the legality of Jim Crow would also provide much more protection for private discrimination. Alt-Civil Rights Cases might actually be a 9-0 ruling in this history, as there may be greater protections for private conduct and there might even be - as odious as it is to admit - political pressure to get the Court to throw a bone to the South. Plessy is also likely to stay the same, as we both think, but it is worth noting that the railroad in question did want Plessy to win.

I can see a round about way for Plessy to be decided differently - if alt-Yick Wo vs Hopkins is an even stronger ruling (as a unanimous decision, the only room for improvement is just how strongly the majority opinion stakes out its position) then maybe by the time alt-Plessy rolls around, the court could decide differently.

In an alternate Jim Crow-era South that relies on private individuals rather than the coercive power of the states to enforce segregation, it will be much more difficult to maintain such policies uniformly. I could imagine a slim majority of businesses engaging in such practices, but enough not doing so to provide real freedom of choice.
 
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