Suppose all the luck went to Britain and France during the Nazi campaign against France, Belgium, Luxemburg and the Netherlands?
Does this produce a stalemate as WW1 or clear defeat?
From the German point of view, a WW I type stalemate
is a defeat.
Germany is under strategic blockade by the Allies, and thus critically short of key materials, notably oil and food. The gap in this stranglehold is the stuff supplied by the USSR. That's a
real comforting thought.
Britain and France between them have more manpower than Germany (
far more if one counts the colonies), and equal manufacturing. (Germany has more steel production, but the Allies can match Germany in production of tanks, planes, small arms, vehicles, and all the other materials.
Germany is pretty much in the same situation as WW I - which ended with German exhaustion and defeat, despite knocking Russia out of the war. This time, they are deadlocked with France and Britain, and the untouched USSR is sitting right behind them.
Many leaders of the German Army thought that situation would be a recipe for inevitable defeat, and was the likely outcome of an attack on France. Among these pessimists were von Brauchitsch, the C-in-C of the Army, and Halder, the chief of the General Staff. In November 1939, they discussed a coup d'état to remove Hitler and end the war before it got any worse for Germany.
In the end, they gave up the idea, because Hitler was politically untouchable, due to his string of unbroken successes (Rhineland, Austria, Munich, Poland). Halder formed his "setback" theory - that Hitler would be vulnerable after he had a major military or diplomatic setback.
Unfortunately, the next year saw even more glorious successes for Hitler - first Norway, then the astonishing victory over France. After that, the minor setback of the Battle of Britain was of no effect. And it was followed by the Balkan victories, Rommel's desert victory, and the spectacular initial success of BARBAROSSA.
Had 1940 gone against Germany - even if the Norway campaign succeeds - Halder would have his setback. The
Mann auf der Straße had obeyed
Der Führer and marched to war, but with mixed feelings. When things went ugly, he'd be ready for a way out of the war.
By the end of July or so, I think most of the Army leadership would join or at least go along with a coup.
If the later how does the war end?
Hard to say exactly, but sometime in late summer, there would be a move. Hitler assassinated? Or arrested and deposed, along with the other chief Nazis. (If Hitler is dead, Goering takes over, and he never wanted a Great War, so he could form a deal with the Army, preserving Nazi power and his own privileges, and they jointly negotiate a peace. If Hitler is alive, Goering has to go too.)
Either way, the new German regime starts throwing out peace feelers. Chamberlain is still in charge, until his health collapses in September. His successor will still be Churchill, I think. However, Churchill will be under considerable pressure to end the war on favorable terms short of total victory.
Germany may start by offeriing to withdraw from Scandinavia, the Low Countries, and France. The Allies will not accept that: Poland must be restored. After some negotiation, Germany will agree to withdraw from Poland, provided that there is a new plebiscite over the status of Danzig.
All prisoners to be released, and no war crimes trials or reparations.
The Poles won't like that, but they can't insist on more. Beggars can't be choosers, right?
What happens about Soviet occupation of Eastern Poland?
That's a hard one. The Allies' defense guarantee should include defense against the USSR; they didn't apply it OTL because they had all they could handle from Germany (and even the Poles didn't press the issue then). With Germany out, they have to fish or cut bait: accept Soviet annexation of eastern Poland, or declare war on the USSR.
The latter is a very drastic step, but hard to avoid.
The USSR could be much harder to defeat than Germany: no blockade is feasible, and invading that vast country... everyone knew what happened to Napoleon.
OTOH: the USSR just fought the Winter War with Finland, and came out looking very weak (for its size). The Allies won't be as recklessly overconfident as Hitler was in 1941, but they shouldn't be afraid to move.
Stalin may yield. His plan (as he told the Politburo in 1939) was for Germany and the Allies to fight as long as possible, until the USSR was ready to move in on the weakened survivors. That hasn't happened - the war ended quickly, and the USSR's enemies may be even stronger. After the Winter War fiasco, he can't rely on the strength of the Red Army.
It would be difficult for the Allies to deploy against the USSR in strength, but Finland and Romania would probably join them - and perhaps even Japan, which tried it on with Soviet forces in Siberia in 1939. Germany may also join an anti-Soviet alliance, as might Italy.
If the Allies make a plausible threat of war, I think he yields.
He's gained some territory from Finland and Romania, and also occupied the Baltic states. He'll keep that regardless.
The Alllies threaten war. Stalin blusters a bit, then agrees to withdraw to the old border with some tweaking. (The transfer of Vilnius to Lithuania, for instance.)
The knock-ons get interesting. I think FDR still runs again. He apparently decided that in the world crisis, he had to stay on as President, and arranged the "draft" at the convention. ITTL, the war is going much better at that time, but it's still going on. Peace in Europe benefits him in November.
The great U.S. military build-up is checked. The 1940 draft may be cancelled or reduced in scope. Domestic affairs become the big political questions.
Japan's position becomes more problematic. Japan cannot take over Indochina - France and Britain will fight if Japan tries. As demented as the Japanese leaders were, I don't think they would take on Britain and France by themselves (while still enmeshed in China, to boot).
When Japan runs out of money to pay for oil imports in 1941, that could be the end of the militarist fantasy life. Or maybe not. Japan can continue the war without oil, but it gets ugly for them. Germany and the USSR may compete in aiding China against Japan.
That's as far as I can take it.