Different Konrad of Mazovia

[Jan Olbracht]

OTL Konrad of Mazovia was mindless brute known for invitation of Teutonic Knights to Chełmno Land, which became nucleus of future Teutonic Order State (as result Konrad is often blamed not only for later wars between Poland and Teutonic Order but also for Partitions and ww2 ). ITTL Konrad's father, Casimir the Just, would have a bit different descendants-three surviving sons, born around 1182, 1184, 1187 (Odon, Leszek, Konrad). Odon would take place of OTL Leszek the White and would be Duke of Cracow, Leszek would take Mazovia, while TTL Konrad would follow example of his uncle Henry of Sandomierz and would visit Holy Land. Konrad would join forces of Hungarian King Andrew II during Fifth Crusade. After returning from Crusade, Konrad would settle in Mazovia, where he would help his older brother fight pagan Prussians. Now serious changes begin. Neither Leszek nor TTL Konrad are as cruel like OTL Konrad, who IOTL ordered to brutally execute voivode Krystyn "shield of Mazovia", who was commander of defense of Mazovia's northern border. So Mazovia have less problems with Prussian raids. That is one thing. Another change is the fact, that being in Holy Land, Konrad has seen how knightly orders work, knowing also what happened in Hungary, where Teutonic Knights tried to carve up their own state but were expelled by King Andrew II, Konrad would advise his brother to not repeat Andrew's mistake and to not invite Knights. TTL Leszek would die childless in 1225, leaving Mazovia to Konrad. Konrad would live until old age and would never even think about bringing Teutonic Order to his land. So how would situation develop? Teutonic Order (or other Order from Germany) could still expand into Prussia like they did in Livonia, starting from Baltic Coast, but conquest of Prussia would not be easy, Baltic Prussians were hard nut to crack, ITTL they should me more likely to repell conquest attemps.

 

[TruthfulPanda]

Inviting the Teutonic Order seemed a good idea at that time - who'd expected them to turn out economically competent as well as treacherous backstabing slime?

Inviting the Order, the Order accepting, the Order thriving - lots of possible changes at every stage. The Gdańsk/Pomeralian Dukes could had invited them with pretty much the same results as OTL ...
A conquest from the sea side (or from Livonia) - never thought about it. I agree that even if it worked - not a foregone conclusion - then progress would had been slower. AFAIK the Order did not affect Polish politics until 1302 - which it then did "with a bang!". If other events proceed as in OTL łokietek is much stronger - he has Pomeralia (unless he losses it to Brandenburgers or to local revolt brought about by his incompetence - see Great Poland) making him a stronger player versus the Vaclavs. No Order - or a weaker Order - means no war on two fronts against the Luxemburgers, increasing chances of gaining Silesia.

No order - IMO Prussia and Jaćwież (is there an English word for them?) follow the same path as Lithuania - the tribes coalescing into a state and then converting.

 

[Augenis]

No order - IMO Prussia and Jaćwież (is there an English word for them?) follow the same path as Lithuania

Yatviags/Jotvingians.

I don't think a surviving Yatvingia is likely, however. Assuming Lithuania goes the same path of unification as in OTL (and potentially end up even stronger, as there is no reason for Mindaugas to give up Scalovia to the Teutonic Knights if they aren't around), they will likely end up incorporated by the Lithuanians as per OTL.

Too close to the Lithuanian nucleus and too small to remain independent for long imo. Prussia would likely survive, though.

In addition, without the Teutonic Knights, Livonia will not last as long as it did in OTL. They had to request a merger with them as early as 1237, after the Battle of Saule, and subsequent battles of Aizkraukle and Durbe pushed them close to eradication thanks to constant Baltic rebellions and Lithuanian attacks. Without the Teutonic Order, the Brothers of the Sword won't last until the 14th century.

 

[TruthfulPanda]

I don't think a surviving Yatvingia is likely, however. Assuming Lithuania goes the same path of unification as in OTL (and potentially end up even stronger, as there is no reason for Mindaugas to give up Scalovia to the Teutonic Knights if they aren't around), they will likely end up incorporated by the Lithuanians as per OTL.
Too close to the Lithuanian nucleus and too small to remain independent for long imo. Prussia would likely survive, though.

OK.
Lithuania - no bleeding frontier with the Order(s) - does Lithuania expand more - or did it reach physical limits of its expansion anyway?

 

[Augenis]

OK.
Lithuania - no bleeding frontier with the Order(s) - does Lithuania expand more - or did it reach physical limits of its expansion anyway?

As I have argued in my "Lithuania in Mongol Europe" post, a Lithuania without the hundred years war with the Orders would likely still expand to the East (assuming same situation in the former Kievan Rus' as OTL), though not necessarily as far as OTL.

Obviously, without the Teutonic and Livonian Knights, Lithuania has a much larger population and economic base, but the lack of a western enemy removes the geopolitical need for conquering Ruthenian principalities.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Rulers of Pomerelia were the first dukes conflicted with Teutonic Knights, and without murder of High Duke of Poland in Gąsawa in 1227 (ITTL High Duke is Odon instead of Leszek) Pomerelia would stay dependend on Duke of Cracow longer than IOTL. Dukes of Pomerelia also simply hardly had enough land to give it to Teutonic Knights. Land along Vistula is too valuable, because of tariffs from Vistula trade.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Perhaps bishop of Riga could invite Teutonic Knights to Livonia?

 

[TruthfulPanda]

There was a sizeable trade on the Vistula in early 13th century? With the east bank of the river in Prussian hands?
As to Riga - excellent point - that's where the Order could go.
The Sword Brethen are absorbed and become a footnote of history?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

There was a sizeable trade on the Vistula in early 13th century?

Yes, tarrifs on Vistula were important source of income for Pomerelian dukes.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Assuming that TTL Konrad's oldest surviving brother-Odon, Duke of Cracow, is more lucky than his OTL analogue Leszek the White and is not murdered, then with throne in Cracow not being emptied Konrad doesn't need to concentrate his energy in the south and could use more resources to protect northern border.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

So Odon would live untill his natural death, say in 1240, as High Duke he keeps suzerainty over Pomerelia. Teutonic Knights went to Livonia, and were crushed at Saule (that would hurt their reputation surely). In 1240 Odon dies, his son Casimir succeedes him as Duke of Cracow and High Duke, but not for long time. Next year Mongol forces ravage Southern Poland to secure their invasion of Hungary and prevent any Polish help to Hungarians, Duke Casimir (Kazimierz III Odonic) as most powerful Polish Duke is their main target. Casimir is killed in the battle near Cracow. Dukes of Pomerelia use opportunity to get full independence, Konrad of Mazovia goes to Cracow to claim the throne emptied by his nephew.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

After death of his nephew, Konrad would unite whole eastern half of Poland under his rule. Duke Casimir would be obvious candidate for Catholic saint. OTL Konrad of Mazovia was known as bloody tyrant, so his attempts to get power in Cracow as Duke or regent of his nephew Bolesław all ultimately failed. His TTL version is more successful, Konrad takes throne in Cracow, but having no sons, he named his great-nephew, Odon (future Odon II), son of Casimir as his heir.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Meanwhile with Order(s) forces crushed at Saule (and soon crushed completly in Livonia) who would expand into Eastern Baltic? Would Danes try to estabilish their rule there?

 

[Augenis]

Meanwhile with Order(s) forces crushed at Saule (and soon crushed completly in Livonia) who would expand into Eastern Baltic? Would Danes try to estabilish their rule there?

Nobody? Denmark could try to expand south from Estonia without an Order presence, but I wouldn't imagine them to be populous or strong enough to reach the OTL Lithuanian-Livonian border, or threaten the Balts as much as the Orders did.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

So Lithuania would be centered around Daugava, like in your 'Mongol Europe'?

 

[Bastiram]

Nobody? Denmark could try to expand south from Estonia without an Order presence, but I wouldn't imagine them to be populous or strong enough to reach the OTL Lithuanian-Livonian border, or threaten the Balts as much as the Orders did.

Denmark entered its period of decline after 1241 (and to a lesser degree 1227). So unless you get that butterflied away, no. If butterflied away without weakening Denmark too much. It would be strong enough and populous enough! before the decline Denmark was at a height population wise, that would first be reached again several centuries later.

 

[Augenis]

So Lithuania would be centered around Daugava, like in your 'Mongol Europe'?

Probably. Depends on how far north Lithuania can push after Livonia's fall, of course - if Daugava becomes the border with Denmark/Novgorod/independent Estonia or Latgalia, then probably not, but otherwise yeah.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Stateless Prussia could not last forever. After Casimir, nephew of Konrad, was killed by Mongols in 1241 and Konrad took Cracow for himself, half of Poland is under Konrad's rule, so having more resources he willa start his own crusade against Prussians, without spectacular success, although Poles would slowly expand to the north. Prussians would either consolidate or would be eventually conquered by neighbours. Meanwhile in Silesia duke Henry the Pious lives-ITTL Casimir of Cracow is strongest Polish duke and main target of Mongol invasion. That means Lower Silesia is not divided as much as IOTL ( I guess pious father would leave no more than two sons to inherit his land, others would join clergy). With father alive, his sons would not fight each other over inheritance, (unlike IOTL, when Bolesław the Bald had to sold Lubusz/Lebus to Brandenburgians to get money for war with his brother, so Brandenburgians get their first land east of Oder river and started their expansion into Poland). If Henry the Pious lives to the age of his father, that would not be problem for decades.

 

[seraphim74]

I wonder if Konrad with eastern Poland (Masovia, Kuiavia, Little Poland) under his rule wouldn't go after Pomerelia. After all he has legal claims as the heir of Casimir of Cracow, who was the overlord of Pomerelia. Pomerelia is richer, culturally and ethnically closer and potentially a greater gain. But it is also a much tougher nut to crack. Konrad of Masovia against Swietopelk II... That would be something.
In such case I believe Swietopelk might count on support from Henry the Pious, just to stop Konrad from becoming too powerful. If Konrad realizes that he might decide to avoid the conflict and indeed to concentrate his efforts on fighting Prussians, pagans and all.
I also wonder if he will try to consolidate his lands: Masovia and Cracow are formally separate duchies united only by their ruler. Will he try to unify them and leave to his heir(s) one single duchy or will he follow Piast tradition and divide them? And consolidaton might not be so easy - Cracow lords liked to have a say in who would rule them. After Mongolian invasion and devastation they will look for a strong ruler... for a time. But later?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I wonder if Konrad with eastern Poland (Masovia, Kuiavia, Little Poland) under his rule wouldn't go after Pomerelia. After all he has legal claims as the heir of Casimir of Cracow, who was the overlord of Pomerelia. Pomerelia is richer, culturally and ethnically closer and potentially a greater gain. But it is also a much tougher nut to crack. Konrad of Masovia against Swietopelk II... That would be something.
In such case I believe Swietopelk might count on support from Henry the Pious, just to stop Konrad from becoming too powerful. If Konrad realizes that he might decide to avoid the conflict and indeed to concentrate his efforts on fighting Prussians, pagans and all.
I also wonder if he will try to consolidate his lands: Masovia and Cracow are formally separate duchies united only by their ruler. Will he try to unify them and leave to his heir(s) one single duchy or will he follow Piast tradition and divide them? And consolidaton might not be so easy - Cracow lords liked to have a say in who would rule them. After Mongolian invasion and devastation they will look for a strong ruler... for a time. But later?

Real Konrad of Mazovia took Cracow after his rival Henry the Pious was killed by Mongols, but IOTL he was known as bloody tyrant already and no one wanted him as either ruler or regent, and his sister-in-law feared, that cruel Konrad would kill his nephew.
ITTL Pomerelia, just like Mazovia, has problem with Prussians, Henry the Pious is not killed at Legnica, but perhaps instead Świętopełk is killed during Prussian raid? War over inheritance between Świętopełk's sons and brothers is great opportunity for Duke of Cracow to restore Polish rule there.